weathermedic Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Was up in Roslyn on the north shore and they had about .75 of snow with cars and grassy surfaces covered. Even the Northern State Pky had some traces on it (in between the lanes) before the salt trucks hit it. Got back down towards JFK where there was only a dusting on colder surfaces. Here in Sheepshead Bay there is barely a dusting on colder surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Snow has stopped here.. Temp 25° w/ 1.0" new otg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: This is looking like one of the most impressive cold mid-December to warm late December pattern reversals that we have seen. The million dollar question is it a transient pattern reversal or does it linger into January? In the wise words of one of my students... Booooooooooooooo. More seriously, that looks like a pattern for 50s/near 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Back in message #137 on 12/2, I noted that following what appeared to be the onset of a cold pattern, that pattern's evolution (and, thus, durability) was uncertain. At the time, just 20% of the GFS ensembles' objective analogs were in agreement. Subsequent to that timeframe, some of the guidance suggested the potential for severe cold for the start of Christmas and Hanukkah. Now, the guidance has come into better agreement that around 12/20 +/- a few days, moderation will take place. A mild close to December remains very much on the table, especially if an AO+ (the AO has averaged +0.463 so far this month) combines with a shift to an EPO+. There is somewhat more agreement with the objective analogs (1953-54, 1974-75, and 1991-92 are common cases). In the mix are some other duds, including 1989-90, 1999-00, and 2000-01. There are also two nice cases in the mix (1957-58 and 2004-05). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 3 hours ago, weathermedic said: Was up in Roslyn on the north shore and they had about .75 of snow with cars and grassy surfaces covered. Even the Northern State Pky had some traces on it (in between the lanes) before the salt trucks hit it. Got back down towards JFK where there was only a dusting on colder surfaces. Here in Sheepshead Bay there is barely a dusting on colder surfaces. Just drove home from Vermont and like usual the amount of snow plummeted heading south on the island. Up on the north shore it looked close to an inch and dropped from there to .2" here on the bay. But even that is .2" more then I was expecting here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 It's literally 42 degrees here yet it's only 34 at JFK, this extremely tight temperature gradient is visible on Wunderground. Interesting phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Just drove home from Vermont and like usual the amount of snow plummeted heading south on the island. Up on the north shore it looked close to an inch and dropped from there to .2" here on the bay. But even that is .2" more then I was expecting here On the north shore where I am, Douglaston/Little Neck, Great Neck, there was well under an inch, probably close to .5" if that and it's now melting. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 14 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: On the north shore where I am, Douglaston/Little Neck, Great Neck, there was well under an inch, probably close to .5" if that and it's now melting. WX/PT I did not get out and measure but it seemed like the most snow was southeast of you along the northern state. Regardless there was certainly more then down here. It's raining here now and the dusting is long gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 4.8" storm total 8.9" YTD currently 32F moderate sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 33 rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 How torched do we get for the holiday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just flipped back to mostly snow, sleet mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: In any event, a -512 meter polar vortex in SE Canada during December is among the strongest on record. This has a chance of being the most extreme December Arctic outbreak for the Northeast in over a decade. It will be interesting to see if the temperature in NYC falls below 10°. The last time that happened in December was December 27, 1989 when the temperature fell to 8°. Of course, December 1989 was brutally cold (4 days with single-digit lows; 16 days with low temperatures below 20°; Mean low: 19.1°, Mean high: 32.6°, Mean temperature: 25.9°; and, one day with a high temperature of 18°). The rest of the winter was much warmer (1 single-digit low; 3 days with lows below 20°; Mean low: 33.2°; Mean high: 48.0°, Mean temperature: 40.6°; and lowest high temperature of 25°). I'm not sure that we'll see such a dramatic shift, but do believe the latter half of December will probably average milder than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin16-41nam_updates.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I still remember last February how some managed well below 0℉ temps that one really cold blast. -10℉ out here in fact. saw sea fog tornado like thing on the sound. of course that's not December but still looks mighty good for possible record lows if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, December temperatures near or below 10 degrees have become rare here since the 1980's. So it will be interesting to see how close NYC can get. NYC near or below 10 degree December lows since 1980(coldest of month) 1980...-1 1983...4 1987...8 1988...5 1989...6 1993...10 2004...11 12/16 top three coldest temperatures 7...1876...9...1917...9....1883 So we're unlikely to even break a daily record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 5 minutes ago, Morris said: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin16-41nam_updates.htm I see there going be using lightening data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, Morris said: So we're unlikely to even break a daily record. That's for central park correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 17 hours ago, bluewave said: This is looking like one of the most impressive cold mid-December to warm late December pattern reversals that we have seen. The million dollar question is it a transient pattern reversal or does it linger into January? If those AO ensembles are correct about it tanking back to zero or below, it probably will be somewhat of a brief change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The RGEM still likes tomorrow nights and Wednesday AM's system more than any other model. It's questionable if it's all snow at the coast but it has over 1 inch in parts of northern nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM still likes tomorrow nights and Wednesday AM's system more than any other model. It's questionable if it's all snow at the coast but it has over 1 inch in parts of northern nj GFS has this now as well, not as amplified but a coating to an 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 In case nobody knew, a para GFS is running again. It's same as past years, you just need to change to "mageval" from "mag" in the first part of the URL at the NCEP site. Tropical tidbits has it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Gfs and ggem flatter for this weekend. 2-4 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gfs and ggem flatter for this weekend. 2-4 for the area This one has more potential because a much colder air mass is in place before. The high itself though isn't in a much better location. Even last night in case nobody noticed we warmed up slower than most models showed. Had NYC not dry slotted I think they'd have gotten 2-4 inches of snow easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 All below normal 500mb heights seem to be gone by late on the 18th [a little help on the 850mb's during 19-22, then goodbye there too], and while trying most of the time to come back toward the coast---never make it again, even by the 28th. Based on the GFSx, the next 8 days, including today, look to be just -2 or -3 when averaged over period, despite the brief aberrations. As of today we are exactly normal and so I estimate by the 20th the month will be in the -1 to -2 range. So if the final 11 days are in the +2 to +4 area (doable), the month will finish near normal. CANSIPS has us at +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Fantasy nor'easter on GFS for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 5 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 4.8" storm total 8.9" YTD currently 32F moderate sleet But but it can't snow with this setup! lol.. 3.7" last night here 12.2" YTD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 FWIW the RGEM brings light snow into the area tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Fantasy nor'easter on GFS for next week 2 minutes ago, snywx said: But but it can't snow with this setup! lol.. 3.7" last night here 12.2" YTD The GFS says I blow past last years total snowfall by Christmas this year...I won't believe it until after its been measured properly, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 19 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Fantasy nor'easter on GFS for next week And warm on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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