Rtd208 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Current temp up to 28 after a low of 23 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: I thought he was going with some 70's La Nina analogs. The problem with 07-08 was that the late December pattern locked in for January. Yeah that was bad. We had one big storm around 3/1/08 but that Jan and Feb were fairly warm and snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yeah that was bad. We had one big storm around 3/1/08 but that Jan and Feb were fairly warm and snowless. I know the Park had 9 inches of snow in Feb 08 but I have no recollection of how or when it fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I know the Park had 9 inches of snow in Feb 08 but I have no recollection of how or when it fell. I think a bunch were from big sleet storms, which count as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 10 minutes ago, ag3 said: I think a bunch were from big sleet storms, which count as snow. We had a swfe in February that over preformed and dropped 5-10 in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: It looks like the areas of record low sea ice and warm SST's near Alaska and Scandinavia are battling for dominance. Notice how the block jumps from near Alaska to Scandinavia later in the month. Unfortunately, we saw this also occur in December 2007 with a rapid vortex/block reversal. That's a good point. Ensembles were hinting at this possibility last weekend then backed off. Now it's looking more likely again. Hopefully, we don't lock in that look going into Jan. like that year did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: That's a good point. Ensembles were hinting at this possibility last weekend then backed off. Now it's looking more likely again. Hopefully, we don't lock in that look going into Jan. like that year did. If the pattern reversal does indeed occur later in December, then we would need the big Kara/Scandinavian ridge to build back across the pole like we saw at the end of last December. But there is no guarantee that would repeat again. Many of these winter 2000's blocks have gotten stuck over the Eurasian Arctic leaving the vortex in place around Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Even though next weekend's storm will be a big cutter, we'll have a tremendous arctic airmass in place at the end of the week. So I'd think we'd see a little front end dump early Saturday before it changes to rain. Do you guys agree? I'd like to see areas near the coast get a couple inches of snow out of this pattern before it flips to warm. Next Saturday is looking like the only chance since the midweek wave is looking flat and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 What's the Euro showing for next weekend? Still a cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: What's the Euro showing for next weekend? Still a cutter? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Yes The new Euro has near 60 degrees into southern New England next Sunday. Tremendous WAA from the lakes cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 I for one would not worry too much about a December 2007-2008 repeat. As according to the 00 UTC indices it is showing the NAO trending down to neutral from positive. Could be a signal of it heading to negative. On top of that the EPO weather forecast's haven't been too reliable. I remember it saying the EPO would go positive before but than reverse to negative instead. It looks more like a reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 22 minutes ago, leo1000 said: I for one would not worry too much about a December 2007-2008 repeat. As according to the 00 UTC indices it is showing the NAO trending down to neutral from positive. Could be a signal of it heading to negative. On top of that the EPO weather forecast's haven't been too reliable. I remember it saying the EPO would go positive before but than reverse to negative instead. It looks more like a reload. Its posssible that was just the Euro trying to change the pattern too early. Right now this flip seems more unanimous and consistent among both ensembles. I'm not sure though that it won't just be a 2 week flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Bitter cold but little/no snow to show for it...made the 2014-15 winter a soul-sucker back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 30 minutes ago, leo1000 said: I for one would not worry too much about a December 2007-2008 repeat. As according to the 00 UTC indices it is showing the NAO trending down to neutral from positive. Could be a signal of it heading to negative. On top of that the EPO weather forecast's haven't been too reliable. I remember it saying the EPO would go positive before but than reverse to negative instead. It looks more like a reload. Must have been a gradient winter down there cause I remember that winter being somewhat normal as far as snowfall went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 10 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Bitter cold but little/no snow to show for it...made the 2014-15 winter a soul-sucker back home. You can't catch a break what the hell? You should have kept going northeast the promised land is somewhere up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Euro has a few shots now. Front end next weekend and something around the 21st with temps borderline cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Eps is even worse for the end of December. +pna and +nao ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Is the EPS still showing that crappy pattern in the LR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Eps is even worse for the end of December. +pna and +nao ugly Just now, dmillz25 said: Is the EPS still showing that crappy pattern in the LR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Nice steady light snow here in lower Manhattan - nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Light snow in Long Beach. Good to see again, no matter how short lived it'll be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Eps is even worse for the end of December. +pna and +nao ugly It did show a very good pattern in the long range . Grain of salt like we should take long range models. Anyway, GFS has arctic squalls for Thursday which could lay down some snow cover and a good front end for the weekend. GFS lost the cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Dusting on cars now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is looking like one of the most impressive cold mid-December to warm late December pattern reversals that we have seen. The million dollar question is it a transient pattern reversal or does it linger into January? Cfs2 says we flip. But that's a huge grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 39 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It did show a very good pattern in the long range . Grain of salt like we should take long range models. Anyway, GFS has arctic squalls for Thursday which could lay down some snow cover and a good front end for the weekend. GFS lost the cutter. In addition to Thursday's squalls, 18z GFS gives southern Jersey close to 1 inch of snow with a little wave late Wednesday. We still have to watch out for a potential little arctic wave Wednesday. Not looking impressive, but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Those arctic waves are the type of things that looks like crap in the beginning and as it gets closer it gets better and vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 We on da board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just measured 0.2 cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Snow has just picked up in intensity 1.0" OTG, this stuff is pure powder, great ratios up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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