December 2016 Discussion & Observations

[dmillz25]

31 cold ass degrees here

[wthrmn654]

28.9°F

[SACRUS]

 

Back from 78 degrees to 28 now in CNJ.   First accum looks likely tomorrow, great way to return.

[psv88]

24...teens maybe?

[Dino]

27 degrees in Selden. (Central LI)

[dmillz25]

28 here. Could go below forecasted temps tonight 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Down to 18F here... WELL below forecasted lows

[JerseyWx]

23° here is right at the forecast low.

[Pequest]

Temps dropping like a rock out here in Warren County NJ. Left Flemington NJ about 45 minutes ago where it was 22 degrees and made the 30 minute drive north up Route 31 to Oxford where it is currently 15 degrees. 

[JerseyWx]

4 minutes ago, Pequest said:

Temps dropping like a rock out here in Warren County NJ. Left Flemington NJ about 45 minutes ago where it was 22 degrees and made the 30 minute drive north up Route 31 to Oxford where it is currently 15 degrees. 

I have a question for you.  Why is it that Oxford, Pequest, and Walpack radiate so well?  Are they valley locations?  I'm not too familiar with that far western part of Jersey.

[Pequest]

5 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I have a question for you.  Why is it that Oxford, Pequest, and Walpack radiate so well?  Are they valley locations?  I'm not too familiar with that far western part of Jersey.

JerseyWX,

Great question as I was wondering the same thing when I moved out this way back in 2009. This area (I'm a mile down the road from the Pequest Fish Hatchery where the Pequest weather station is located) radiates like crazy and on prime radiational cooling nights is usually one of the top 3 coldest areas of the state. Not sure of the topography of Walpack but I know Pequest is sandwiched in between some larger mountains to the north and south not to mention the surrounding area is extremely rural with vast undeveloped state owned land. 

 

[JerseyWx]

1 minute ago, Pequest said:

JerseyWX,

Great question as I was wondering the same thing when I moved out this way back in 2009. This area (I'm a mile down the road from the Pequest Fish Hatchery where the Pequest weather station is located) radiates like crazy and on prime radiational cooling nights is usually one of the top 3 coldest areas of the state. Not sure of the topography of Walpack but I know Pequest is sandwiched in between some larger mountains to the north and south not to mention the surrounding area is extremely rural with vast undeveloped state owned land. 

 

Thanks for the response Pequest.  

In my opinion, that western section of the state is by far the most interesting.  So many tiny, unincorporated communities out there.  It's like a different world, and something no one considers when they think of New Jersey.

[Rtd208]

Temp now down to 25 here.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

15F currently

[Hailstorm]

If this cold pattern is expected to last until at least 12/23 by many posters in this board, then why is Upton projecting NYC to receive an all-out torch cutter by next Saturday?

Saturday

A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

 

Meanwhile...an upper level trough moves onshore from the Pacific
during the second half of the week. There are some differences
aloft by Sat...although confluent flow across the country and
developing low pres in the Plains could bring pcpn back to the
region during Sat. The cold airmass already in place should all
for pcpn to start in the frozen phase but will likely
mix/changeover with sly flow.

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

If this cold pattern is expected to last until at least 12/23 by many posters in this board, then why is Upton projecting NYC to torch by next Saturday?

Saturday

A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

 

Meanwhile...an upper level trough moves onshore from the Pacific
during the second half of the week. There are some differences
aloft by Sat...although confluent flow across the country and
developing low pres in the Plains could bring pcpn back to the
region during Sat. The cold airmass already in place should all
for pcpn to start in the frozen phase but will likely
mix/changeover with sly flow.

Because 38 is still well below normal

[snywx]

Currently 13° out there..  About 0.5" of snow on the ground

[tmagan]

48 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

38 degrees is an all out torch?

It'll probably end up being warmer than that with an 11:59 P.M. maximum.

[MJO812]

Looks like this will be an interior winter. The storm next weekend on the gfs is a cutter and then the gfs has a follow up wave that also tracks inland and gives the interior more snow.

 

-Pna is killing us right now

 

We might have to wait until January or when the pna helps us for meaningful snow

[Allsnow]

Down to 24. 

 

Looks like cold rain cold rain. Better then last December I guess. 

[tim]

...i'm @ 17*..interested to see what KFOK had..there down(N/A).

surprised to the ponds iced-over and even the creeks of moriches bay saturday morn.

..hoping to see some snow later today..before the C/O..

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

-Pna is killing us right now

 

We might have to wait until January or when the pna helps us for meaningful snow

^^^This

-EPO will help us stay cold this week but even that feature disintegrates on the LR ensembles.

[qg_omega]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

EPS hinting that we will see the coldest December temperatures around the region for the 2010's so far this week.

They have a low of 14 degrees this week in NYC which would be the first time reaching 15 or lower there since 2008.

It would only be the 9th occurrence since 1990 in an era defined by record December warmth.

 

NYC lows of 15 or lower since 1990:

2008...13

2005...14

2004...11

2000...14

1996...15

1995...15

1993...10

1991...13

Impressive cold during an cutter pattern!  Hello 80s

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think that the rebound in temperatures could also be impressive later in December if that vortex returns to Alaska. Models want to reverse the pattern 

after the winter solstice.

Yeah completely reverse the pattern. We would torch in that pattern 

[psv88]

A frosty 21

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Almost like last February with the big Valentines Day cold and a quick warm up later in the month.

This would be the first time in December since 2007 that such a strong block near Alaska early in

the month was replaced by a deep vortex later on.

 

 

 

 

Isotherms might nail his blow torch January and 07-08 prediction 

[dmillz25]

25 for the low here

[FPizz]

20 here.  I guess to try to spin this, I'd rather 55 and rain over 37 and rain.  

[EasternLI]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I thought he was going with some 70's La Nina analogs. The problem with 07-08 was that the late December pattern locked in for January.

 

The end of the ensembles look a lot like that 2nd half of Dec. '07 composite. Yuck. Hope that's short lived, if it happens.

[Rtd208]

You have to wonder if Larry Cosgrove is going to be correct, he was never a fan of it getting cold for very long and has been predicting a warm up in mid December (or around Christmas). His winter outlook was very warm and overall snowless for the Northeastern US. Have to see how things evolve as we move forward since there has been alot of model volatility recently from run to run.