December 2016 Discussion & Observations

[PB GFI]

13 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I still like +2 to +4 for December, which was also my forecast for November 

 

KNYC is plus 1.3 , the next 2 days will add a bit.

I thought the last 10 days of November would end up BN , and didn't think it would erase the front. 

 

December a different story IMO , I think it's a BN month 

[PB GFI]

39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

if they back off, another positive departure is almost a sure bet.  

 

Sure , so what's your actual forecast for December ? 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That's true. The +NAO cold pool is a little weaker than it has been from December 2011 to 2015. Not sure if this is indicative yet of a more neutral or even

negative NAO potential going forward. We would need some - to neutral NAO help if there is any chance of that SE Ridge flattening out for even a brief interval.

 

 

 

You have a better shot of the AO than the NAO of averaging neutral or negative this winter. There is a lot going against NAO besides the hostile North Atlantic sstas. +QBO, modoki La Niña are very unfavorable for -NAO especially once past December 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

EPS drops -4 to -7 temps on some days after the 1st week, and doesn't hit average within its run again. Day 10-14 is downright fridged 

 

parts of of the northern CONUS, see -20+ departures 

[CIK62]

CFS says next 30 days will be in line with most of the previous 21 AN months we have experienced, just 8 days will be BN, ironically X-Mas day is a one-day holdout from the last 10 days of pizza oven heat.  Dec. 20 itself is pegged at +4SD.

As I mentioned two weeks ago,  the cold around the 10-13 was shown retreating and slipping by to the north.

Now if there were just some glasses you could wear to turn those red hues to blue....................................................

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

9 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

CFS says next 30 days will be in line with most of the previous 21 AN months we have experienced, just 8 days will be BN, ironically X-Mas day is a one-day holdout from the last 10 days of pizza oven heat.  Dec. 20 itself is pegged at +4SD.

As I mentioned two weeks ago,  the cold around the 10-13 was shown retreating and slipping by to the north.

Now if there were just some glasses you could wear to turn those red hues to blue....................................................

Vast contrast compared to EPS, not a fan of climo models but I guess we will see

[MJO812]

Maybe some snow on Monday?

[dmillz25]

Flying under the radar is northern Maine which is about to get rocked with 1-2 ft of snow

[Brian5671]

4 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

Sure , so what's your actual forecast for December ? 

For KNYC I'll go +2 give or take.  Similar to what November will end up being.  I think the mid month cold doesn't hold and we're warm to very warm 12/20 to 12/31

[PB GFI]

55 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

For KNYC I'll go +2 give or take.  Similar to what November will end up being.  I think the mid month cold doesn't hold and we're warm to very warm 12/20 to 12/31

 

ok., very good my man thanks for the forecast. 

 

[Brian5671]

December 2013 had a good period of winter weather midmonth with a snow to ice to rain storm for most, but by Xmas we had record warmth again.     

[donsutherland1]

15 hours ago, CIK62 said:

CFS says next 30 days will be in line with most of the previous 21 AN months we have experienced, just 8 days will be BN, ironically X-Mas day is a one-day holdout from the last 10 days of pizza oven heat.  Dec. 20 itself is pegged at +4SD.

As I mentioned two weeks ago,  the cold around the 10-13 was shown retreating and slipping by to the north.

Now if there were just some glasses you could wear to turn those red hues to blue....................................................

Although the CFSv2 did exceptionally well with November, I personally think its December anomaly for the NYC area (just under +4°F) is probably too warm. At the same time, the EPS is probably far too cold. In AmWx's monthly temperature contest, I put NYC at +2.1°, which was largely a compromise of what has often happened with similar teleconnections (weak negative-to-neutral EPO, PNA-, and volatile AO). Surges of warmth ahead of strong systems that cut toward the Lakes would probably outduel the cold that follows. Overall, I felt that the western U.S. would be colder than normal (with the potential for much colder than normal), but on the East Coast, it's a much tougher call.

[qg_omega]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Although the CFSv2 did exceptionally well with November, I personally think it's December anomaly for the NYC area (just under +4°F) is probably too warm. At the same time, the EPS is probably far too cold. In AmWx's monthly temperature contest, I put NYC at +2.1°, which was largely a compromise of what has often happened with similar teleconnections (weak negative-to-neutral EPO, PNA-, and volatile AO). Surges of warmth ahead of strong systems that cut toward the Lakes would probably outduel the cold that follows. Overall, I felt that the western U.S. would be colder than normal (with the potential for much colder than normal), but on the East Coast, it's a much tougher call.

I like +2 to +4, just like November, we establish a new pattern but its a cutter pattern with lack of upsteam blocking.  Cutter -> near normal -> Cutter pattern for most of December IMHO.

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Although the CFSv2 did exceptionally well with November, I personally think it's December anomaly for the NYC area (just under +4°F) is probably too warm. At the same time, the EPS is probably far too cold. In AmWx's monthly temperature contest, I put NYC at +2.1°, which was largely a compromise of what has often happened with similar teleconnections (weak negative-to-neutral EPO, PNA-, and volatile AO). Surges of warmth ahead of strong systems that cut toward the Lakes would probably outduel the cold that follows. Overall, I felt that the western U.S. would be colder than normal (with the potential for much colder than normal), but on the East Coast, it's a much tougher call.

fully agree with you Don

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I like +2 to +4, just like November, we establish a new pattern but its a cutter pattern with lack of upsteam blocking.  Cutter -> near normal -> Cutter pattern for most of December IMHO.

If it's cutter city all month, then you and I will be right with our call.   You'll get a day or two of much above normals and cheap midnight highs with each cutting system.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

I agree with you about the importance of the big block near the Bering Sea getting Canada colder.

But a favorable Pacific for Canada cold isn't enough without adequate help from the NAO. We saw 

how a solid -EPO pattern in December 2013 was overpowered by the -PNA /+NAO that pumped the SE Ridge.

 

The current -PNA pattern will average warmer than normal  for the month here without enough help from the Atlantic side.

 

 

 

 

 

Agree with you Bluewave. The NAO looks not to cooperate, mostly positive and maybe some east-based -NAO at times which doesn't help us. Now the AO pretty much looks uncooperative too in fact it may go strong positive for a time. The -PNA (RNA) I expected that is pretty much a given. -WPO may help not to make it a total torch but this pattern certainly has lakes cutters written all over it without any -NAO blocking downstream. It also favors normal to above normal temps. The poleward aleutian ridge is not a -EPO. It is setting up too far west from the EPO region. I did not expect an overly negative -EPO winter anyway. I think it averages neutral to positive this winter given the change away from the super positive PDO we have been seen for the last few winters

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

We missed out on a colder than normal December due to the very strong +NAO/-PNA combo. Cold Decembers have been rare here since 2000.

The only colder than normal ones here since 2000 had help from a -NAO in 2000, 2002, 2005, 2009, and 2010. 

 

most of the cold Decembers had a negative nao...Most of the warm Decembers had a positive nao...I didn't do the math yet but the exceptions are...Cold Decembers with a positive monthly nao are 1955 barely...1960 barely...1980...1983 barely...1983 had the most positive nao...The warm Decembers with a negative nao are...1953...1996...2001...

[Allsnow]

After the cutter today looks like another cold shot with the inability to get urban areas below 32. I think the city's best shot is around December 10th 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Agree with you Bluewave. The NAO looks not to cooperate, mostly positive and maybe some east-based -NAO at times which doesn't help us. Now the AO pretty much looks uncooperative too in fact it may go strong positive for a time. The -PNA (RNA) I expected that is pretty much a given. -WPO may help not to make it a total torch but this pattern certainly has lakes cutters written all over it without any -NAO blocking downstream. It also favors normal to above normal temps. The poleward aleutian ridge is not a -EPO. It is setting up too far west from the EPO region. I did not expect an overly negative -EPO winter anyway. I think it averages neutral to positive this winter given the change away from the super positive PDO we have been seen for the last few winters

Just to add, it's starting to look like the SE ridge is going to be a rather formidable force this winter. The models are underpredicting the SE ridge in the long range only to pop it up as we get closer 

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

After the cutter today looks like another cold shot with the inability to get urban areas below 32. I think the city's best shot is around December 10th 

Agreed, Dec 9/10 should have the city's first freeze.

[pazzo83]

It's kind of insane that NYC has the same growing season length as like southern Georgia.

[JerseyWx]

3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

It's kind of insane that NYC has the same growing season length as like southern Georgia.

The Urban Heat Island at its finest.

[Brian5671]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just to add, it's starting to look like the SE ridge is going to be a rather formidable force this winter. The models are underpredicting the SE ridge in the long range only to pop it up as we get closer 

If we could get some decent cold-we could see a gradient pattern and storms riding along the gradient and/or overrunning patterns.  Big if there however.

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

If we could get some decent cold-we could see a gradient pattern and storms riding along the gradient and/or overrunning patterns.  Big if there however.

Gonna be a "thread the needle" winter it seems.

[WEATHERBUFF]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Although the CFSv2 did exceptionally well with November, I personally think its December anomaly for the NYC area (just under +4°F) is probably too warm. At the same time, the EPS is probably far too cold. In AmWx's monthly temperature contest, I put NYC at +2.1°, which was largely a compromise of what has often happened with similar teleconnections (weak negative-to-neutral EPO, PNA-, and volatile AO). Surges of warmth ahead of strong systems that cut toward the Lakes would probably outduel the cold that follows. Overall, I felt that the western U.S. would be colder than normal (with the potential for much colder than normal), but on the East Coast, it's a much tougher call.

+2.1 is normal for the last 15 years or so, especially for december

[WEATHERBUFF]

3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Gonna be a "thread the needle" winter it seems.

This is looking more and more like an interior winter with the La Nina and perhaps limited blocking.

[qg_omega]

5 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

This is looking more and more like an interior winter with the La Nina and perhaps limited blocking.

dont see any threats for the interior either for the next 2 weeks, cutter pattern isn't an interior pattern but a midwest one

[dmillz25]

8 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

This is looking more and more like an interior winter with the La Nina and perhaps limited blocking.

La nina looking like la nada right now. Btw the gefs look nice

[WEATHERBUFF]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

dont see any threats for the interior either for the next 2 weeks, cutter pattern isn't an interior pattern but a midwest one

The way the models are performing I would nt count on their accuracy for more than a few days put. I'm just saying the overall pattern for the winter favors the interior..

[WEATHERBUFF]

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

La nina looking like la nada right now. Btw the gefs look nice

The key is timing more than anything like it is every winter it seems.