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December 2016 Discussion & Observations


bluewave

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Models hinting at temps falling below 20 in NYC later next week.

December minimums below 20 degrees have been occurring less frequently in recent years.

NYC hasn't seen a daily -10 departure since May 1st.

 

NYC December minimums since 2000:

2015...34

2014...24

2013...19

2012...28

2011...22

2010...19

2009...16

2008...13

2007...20

2006...18

2005...14

2004...11

2003...21

2002...19

2001...20

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In the subject matter of sometimes you get what you want a lake effect streamer has reached all the way into eastern PA early this morning.  The result is that travel on I-78, Rte 222, and I-80 are closed or almost impassable to the west of the NE extension of the PA Turnpike in Allentown and Hazleton.  It's an unusual situation however if you or anyone you know is planning to travel west into PA this morning on these routes you will want to change your plans.  There was not a lot of snow however the roads are impassable there.

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12 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


Lol.

CFS weeklies and Accuweather for LR forecasting? Seriously?

QBO btw is an oscillation pattern that changes regularly....much like the PNA or NAO for example. Suggesting the QBO is heading to a point of no return and the best is behind us is just absurd.

Sent from my XT603 using Tapatalk 2
 

What us QBO. Is it an index for the southeast ridge? Also to hear Cohen go negative on LR gives ne concern. Did he mention the AO at all?

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What us QBO. Is it an index for the southeast ridge? Also to hear Cohen go negative on LR gives ne concern. Did he mention the AO at all?


Im not skilled in QBO forecasting as much as others, but it is an oscillation cycle that occurs in phases that can last up to 2 years iirc. However, as witnessed this year, these patterns can be disrupted and alter rather abruptly. It has to do with the stratosphere near the equator in regards to tropical westerlies/easterlies. Someone else will have to chime in on how exactly this affects us in the Eastern US. I do know that different phases can dictate between a very cold or very mild winter in our area.
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22 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

In the subject matter of sometimes you get what you want a lake effect streamer has reached all the way into eastern PA early this morning.  The result is that travel on I-78, Rte 222, and I-80 are closed or almost impassable to the west of the NE extension of the PA Turnpike in Allentown and Hazleton.  It's an unusual situation however if you or anyone you know is planning to travel west into PA this morning on these routes you will want to change your plans.  There was not a lot of snow however the roads are impassable there.

I saw Mt Holly NWS issued an alert about the squall around 4 AM moving south into the Philly area.

Noticed Huff Church in Berks County got 1.2 inches of snow overnight.

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


Im not skilled in QBO forecasting as much as others, but it is an oscillation cycle that occurs in phases that can last up to 2 years iirc. However, as witnessed this year, these patterns can be disrupted and alter rather abruptly. It has to do with the stratosphere near the equator in regards to tropical westerlies/easterlies. Someone else will have to chime in on how exactly this affects us in the Eastern US. I do know that different phases can dictate between a very cold or very mild winter in our area.

Thanks

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1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

Would like some NAO help but I'll take the -EPO

Same here, although I feel like for us coasties, an EPO-driven pattern is risky insofar as snow is concerned.  If not lined up perfectly, it could be a cold-wet-cold sequence throughout.  I feel like 13-14 and 14-15 were standout years where we had a great deal of luck on our side (although I suppose you can say that about any snowy year here....man, we have just been so spoiled lately).

That said, I will happily take any pattern that keeps the cold around.  None of that death-vortex 01-02 or 11-12 noise!

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3 hours ago, Animal said:

I saw Mt Holly NWS issued an alert about the squall around 4 AM moving south into the Philly area.

Noticed Huff Church in Berks County got 1.2 inches of snow overnight.

Yeah they have some elevation over there with some parts of that borough over 1000'.  Just crazy what happened in that area.  That area along I-78 is prone to those types of events.  Something like that happened last winter along I-78 to the west of there and it caused a chain reaction crash that took 7 lives.  A number of those people were from the NYC area.  In that event 3 - 4" fell from a squall.  I was in that area the next day and measured it.  Strange stuff. 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the top 3 analog matches for the -EPO/-PNA/+AO December pattern will be 2013, 2008, and 1983. They were all cold neutral to weak La Nina Decembers.

Snowfall was variable for NYC with 2 years above normal and 1 below. So root for the 2008 and 2013 analogs if you like snow.

2013...8.6"...2008...6.0"...1983...1.6"

 

A.png

 

 

83 had the insane cold departures right around xmas, right?

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