Allsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Temps for saturday morning 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 hours ago, psv88 said: How close are you to the water? You are farther east but i appear to radiate better, hit 28 yesterday morning. Had 0.46 from this system. Less than 2 miles, arguably 1 mile if you count the inland estuaries (Nissy). Plus I am on a hill. It's hard to get the north breeze to die down here in the early fall, and even if it is very light, it's off warm water. Early November I can usually drive a couple of mile south on a cool morning and find frost when we don't have frost. Effect diminishes starting around 11/15. It also varies depending on the wind direction. Some days we seem do to quite well, just not as well as the middle of the island on the nights with a diminishing north wind. Microclimates PS I had 0.36" in the bucket this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 hours ago, Metsfan said: I have had multiple freezes here in Deer Park, NY on Long Island. I live close to the Edgewood preserve, along with Pilgrim State. Oh nice, i notice there is a PWS right by there which radiates very well. Is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 39 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Less than 2 miles, arguably 1 mile if you count the inland estuaries (Nissy). Plus I am on a hill. It's hard to get the north breeze to die down here in the early fall, and even if it is very light, it's off warm water. Early November I can usually drive a couple of mile south on a cool morning and find frost when we don't have frost. Effect diminishes starting around 11/15. It also varies depending on the wind direction. Some days we seem do to quite well, just not as well as the middle of the island on the nights with a diminishing north wind. Microclimates PS I had 0.36" in the bucket this morning. Ok, that makes sense. You probably get some decent sound enhancement when there is a cold NNE flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah but an hour at 31.5 degrees won't do much. We need a hard killing freeze which may finally happen this weekend. Right. We were below 30 for 4 hours yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 While it seems fairly certain that some serious cold is heading our way and with some staying power, certainly a week ago the duration was in question, I think its safe to say many would be hugely disappointed if Snow wasnt packaged along withat cold too. Very worst case scenario would be a combination of severe cold, runner, rinse and repeat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, nyblizz44 said: While it seems fairly certain that some serious cold is heading our way and with some staying power, certainly a week ago the duration was in question, I think its safe to say many would be hugely disappointed if Snow wasnt packaged along withat cold too. Very worst case scenario would be a combination of severe cold, runner, rinse and repeat! I would take a 2000 repeat. Cold mostly snowless month but with a great finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Ensembles have the Midwest 25-30 degrees below normal next week the pv lobe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Ok, that makes sense. You probably get some decent sound enhancement when there is a cold NNE flow There is some payback over the course of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: Oh okay. I was wondering why he is always so much warmer then you guys. He doesn't radiate well at all Yeah, I'm southeast of JFK on the Nassau/Queens border, still comfortably within the UHI, plus I get the ocean influence. I'm kind of 50/50 though as I commute to Suffolk, so I've seen plenty of frosty mornings and I've experienced sub-freezing temps already, no frost or freeze down here yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 hours ago, psv88 said: Oh nice, i notice there is a PWS right by there which radiates very well. Is that you? No, but I live close to that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Most impressive December cold in years here if the Euro and GFS even come close to verifying. OP Euro 6 for NYC..EPS mean 16.. GFS...13. The last time NYC fell below 15 degrees in December was 2008 and below 10 degrees was way back in 1989. The coldest in Dec NYC has been since 2010 was 19 degrees and this looks colder than that even if the models are too cold. Both models also show below 0 potential for Chicago. And minus 24C 850s. Insane stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 18z GFS is much colder for next Thursday vs. 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, Cfa said: Yeah, I'm southeast of JFK on the Nassau/Queens border, still comfortably within the UHI, plus I get the ocean influence. I'm kind of 50/50 though as I commute to Suffolk, so I've seen plenty of frosty mornings and I've experienced sub-freezing temps already, no frost or freeze down here yet though. Oh okay. Well I think you can say goodbye to the peppers lol. Let us know how low you do go. Friday night should do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: The exact path of the PV and wind direction with the Arctic high will determine how cold we can get. It looks like only the 5th December below zero potential since 2000 for Chicago. December Below 0 readings for Chicago since 2000: 2013...2008...2004...2000 Drives that pv lobe right into the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Is anyone kinda concerned long term that the Arctic remains basically on fire (relative to normal)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 For NYC a 5120m 500mb height combined with a -21C 850mb Temp., as shown on 18Z, should produce a record low-----since they are both records for mid-Dec. themselves. However the GFS has played with the temperatures in this period by 50 degs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 8 minutes ago, CIK62 said: For NYC a 5120m 500mb height combined with a -21C 850mb Temp., as shown on 18Z, should produce a record low-----since they are both records for mid-Dec. themselves. However the GFS has played with the temperatures in this period by 50 degs. Euro is also very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 31 minutes ago, CIK62 said: For NYC a 5120m 500mb height combined with a -21C 850mb Temp., as shown on 18Z, should produce a record low-----since they are both records for mid-Dec. themselves. However the GFS has played with the temperatures in this period by 50 degs. A post regarding cold by you? Oh, there is a caveat at then end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 No I'm not concerned that the arctic is warmer than normal. The average temp at 80 N is below zero and they are entering a period of near zero incoming solar energy. Granted the temps are currently above average, but it's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 hours ago, pazzo83 said: Is anyone kinda concerned long term that the Arctic remains basically on fire (relative to normal)? You know I have but this is the wrong forum. The last couple of winters haven't started until late January so I'll take any coastal snow in December as a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Very big -epo on the 6z gfs in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Freezing fog this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the closest pass of the PV to our region will be around December 15th-16th and then we see how long this pattern can hold on for. The near record ridge for this time of year near Alaska is providing the cold. Without it, the flow would become more zonal later in the month. Hopefully we can lay some snow cover to go after some record lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 42 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Freezing fog this morning. Same. Was 30 this morning..Forecast low was 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Last nights EPS was very snowy for all, wetter than the op, mean was skewed by some complete misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 EPS has -20 BN departures for next Saturday WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 46 minutes ago, bluewave said: This was about as dramatic a Northern Hemisphere pattern change that you will ever see for Oct-Nov to Dec. Yeh , the one thing people have to recognize is when the Euro or the GFS want to cut storms into H/B with a negative WPO/EPO they more than likely will not . So I posted 2 days ago that the pattern comes 1st . This illustrates it .This is a new source region and a new resulting 500. The results over the next 10 to 12 days will be very different than the warm cutter solutions we just saw There is just too much energy running under the vortex to escape this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Yeh , the one thing people have to recognize is when the Euro or the GFS want to cut storms into H/B with a negative WPO/EPO they more than likely will not . So I posted 2 days ago that the pattern comes 1st . This illustrates it .This is a new source region and a new resulting 500. The results over the next 10 to 12 days will be very different than the warm cutter solutions we just saw There is just too much energy running under the vortex to escape this Great analysis. something nobody really mentioned but what's your thoughts on the convergence zones setting up over lakes and enhanced streamers pushing this Far East?... from what I can see (which is only basic) some of us have a real shot at getting caught in some enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, I mentioned the other day how this is the type of Pacific blocking pattern that could produce December 2008 or 2013 type of snowfall events if we get lucky. While it's not the blockbuster 20"-30" potential at the coast with the deeply neg AO like we saw in Dec 2009-2010, these storms getting forced underneath from the west can get us to closer to normal or even above normal snowfall for December with the right track. The longer that this pattern can hold on, the more of these potential events we can rack up. If memory serves, the winters following those two Decembers were quite different, with 2013-2014 being cold, snowy, and EPO-driven? I remember 2008-2009 being unremarkable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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