LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 hour ago, psv88 said: If it won't snow it might as well be warm. Who wants cold and dry? Not me thats for sure. Days of blasting west winds. We already did that in November when at least it's common. I will say though if we keep the cold on this side of the pole eventually things will line up. Anyone tossing this winter is drinking the coolade again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Not me thats for sure. Days of blasting west winds. We already did that in November when at least it's common. I will say though if we keep the cold on this side of the pole eventually things will line up. Anyone tossing this winter is drinking the coolade again Agree, we're early. If we get to Jan 31st and there's nothing then time to pack it in. December is often warm and snowless especially the past few years...no need to panic based on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: That's what I posted was coming of this pattern yesterday and I got attacked. I'll say it again, this is not an east coast snow pattern at all. Interior northeast yea, Ohio valley, Midwest yea. Bad pattern for the east coast though. And that poleward Aleutian ridge is not a -EPO. It's west of the EPO region. People keep mistakenly referring to it as -EPO You get attacked because of how you say it not what you say. My criticism isn't even that your wrong, simply that you have no credibility because all you do is beat the same drum all the time. I know last year the only time you popped into my forum was to make a comment when a snow threat was falling apart or when the pattern looked awful. Then when it was about to snow you would disappear completely only to return as soon as things looked bad again. People aren't stupid. It's transparent what your agenda is. I criticize JB the same way. I might love what he is saying but he has no cred because all he ever does is hype snow and cherry pick things that support it. You do the same thing just in an opposite way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You get attacked because of how you say it not what you say. My criticism isn't even that your wrong, simply that you have no credibility because all you do is beat the same drum all the time. I know last year the only time you popped into my forum was to make a comment when a snow threat was falling apart or when the pattern looked awful. Then when it was about to snow you would disappear completely only to return as soon as things looked bad again. People aren't stupid. It's transparent what your agenda is. I criticize JB the same way. I might love what he is saying but he has no cred because all he ever does is hype snow and cherry pick things that support it. You do the same thing just in an opposite way. Last year before the blizzard he said he pattern didn't support it when in fact the record Kara Sea Block plummeted the -AO and we had one of the biggest snowstorms on record. Im not a huge fan of the upcoming pattern either, but we all get it. No need for the same post day in day out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 14 hours ago, Morris said: Someone somehow forgot to post today's CFS for January... Lol And the polar opposite today. An epic torch. Can we agree to never post what it says? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 The Euro mostly agrees with the GFS on the teens next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 55 minutes ago, Morris said: And the polar opposite today. An epic torch. Can we agree to never post what it says? that model is all over the place...and usually not right in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 The EPS still looks good , it`s cold in the 3 - 10 with a good 500 . Today`s day 13 looks a lot better than yesterdays day 14 , you can see the trough d 13/14 is deeper through the lakes . But should not touch past day 10 , no need . It`s a very good pattern for cold and what I think will end up being a good pattern for snow before the pattern reverses a few days either side of the 20th . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Sitting at 41 here currently. Lots of bright echoes on radar, most likely indicative of melting snow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 41/33 cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: The EPS still looks good , it`s cold in the 3 - 10 with a good 500 . Today`s day 13 looks a lot better than yesterdays day 14 , you can see the trough d 13/14 is deeper through the lakes . But should not touch past day 10 , no need . It`s a very good pattern for cold and what I think will end up being a good pattern for snow before the pattern reverses a few days either side of the 20th . What's your Twitter name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Sitting at 41 here currently. Lots of bright echoes on radar, most likely indicative of melting snow aloft. Yep. Looks like classic bright banding on the radar. The latest HRRR is suggesting snow actually gets further southeast than was expected, into northwestern Rockland and Bergen counties now. If precip rates are really as intense as the HRRR shows with strong enough UVVs, it may dynamically cool the column enough from aloft to get all snow down to the surface. There may be a surprise in those areas tonight where they were expecting all rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Moderate Rain/sleet mix here in N Union county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What's your Twitter name? I don't have one Kev. I have been on the 5th thru the 20 th for a while . Mostly away , I am BN temps wise and put myself on the hook for AN snow all the way to NYC during the period but aimed at week 2 Snow is always the risk on the coastal plain in mid December but I like the source region and the confluence it can provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Rain sleet mix on the upper west side. I wasn't expecting any frozen at all here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Rain sleet mix on the upper west side. I wasn't expecting any frozen at all here 43 and a sleet rain mix here in SW Suffolk also. Good sounding for sleet with cold layer beneath a warm layer. SFC 1010 28 4.6 1.0 78 3.5 3.0 66 7 276.9 277.6 275.7 288.1 4.08 1 1000 109 4.3 -0.0 74 4.3 2.4 72 13 277.4 278.1 275.6 287.9 3.81 2 950 525 0.9 -1.7 83 2.6 -0.2 86 23 278.1 278.7 275.6 287.9 3.55 3 900 957 -1.6 -3.7 86 2.1 -2.4 98 25 279.9 280.4 276.1 288.9 3.23 4 850 1413 -1.3 -2.4 92 1.1 -1.7 107 24 284.8 285.5 279.3 295.5 3.76 5 800 1897 -0.2 -0.6 97 0.5 -0.4 124 25 291.0 291.8 283.1 304.2 4.56 6 750 2414 0.1 -0.0 99 0.1 0.1 161 26 296.7 297.6 285.9 311.8 5.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Has sleet and rain here for awhile. Mostly rain now. 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Had some sleet in the Hunts Point area of the Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Gfs takes the city below 32 Friday morning and 20's for nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Friday night looks to be the night for Long Island to go below 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 35 minutes ago, nzucker said: Had some sleet in the Hunts Point area of the Bronx. I encountered a sleet-rain mix in New Rochelle this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 CMC is way weaker than the GFS in regards to the wave on Sunday. Looks like snow showers for the area. GFS also came south and colder than 18z but not there yet in regards to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Friday night looks to be the night for Long Island to go below 32 We've had 8 daily lows 32 or below so far, including 30 this morning. Coldest was 28 on 11/28 and 29 on 11/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 9 hours ago, bluewave said: GEFS hinting at the first NYC -10 departure since May 1st around December 16th. A -10 Departure for NYC would work out to a 33/22 max/min. NYC Dec monthly mins since 2010: 2015...34 2014...24 2013...19 2012...28 2011...22 2010...19 2015 was so ridiculous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Got some flakes mixing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The main driver of this upcoming pattern opined here from a few days is the WPO. The - 2SD ridging has bent that Siberian jet back over the Arctic and down into W Canada. This is not strat driven, there's a negative PNA and the Atlantic did not help this, this is mostly a function of that same exact same jet that cut all that cold water across the PAC in Oct and Nov being forced back over the top . That extremely cold air is making its way down W Canada through the upper mid west and east across the CONUS. And may be here for 10 plus days . So what is likely to happen during this period besides the well BN we will experience is that those cutters that you keep seeing modeled don't. ( one in any pattern could) but the warm cutter pattern is going on vacation. Sometimes in patterns like this even if a center does end up to your west, you will snow on the front end and drizzle at the end . My idea is there's more than one cold enough system before the 20th in this pattern . even for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Still warmer post-20th? This is some real-deal BRRRRR coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 0.44" in the park. Drought dent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 49 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said: Still warmer post-20th? This is some real-deal BRRRRR coming. The WPO is forecast between 2 to 3 SD BN over the next 15 days so we and Canada are still cold through the 20th. Need to see what the ridge looks like accross the S in a few days on the ensembles. If that ridge does come N then the Barroclinic zone gets forced N of us. lots to focus on over the next 12 days , hopefully something produces . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 This block going up near the Bering Sea is among the strongest recorded in December during recent years. The only stronger block that I could find was a +500 meter anomaly back in December 2010. The two closest positive anomalies in that region for December were in 2013 and 2008. Both those years reached 400+ meters like the one the next few days. Following the very strong blocks in 2008 and 2013 NYC recorded minimum temperatures of 13 and 19 degrees. Monthly snowfall for NYC totaled 6.0" and 8.6". 2016...+434 meters 400+ meters in 2008 and 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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