Morris Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Someone somehow forgot to post today's CFS for January... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Man, you need to go to the 39-46 week on the EPS to go slightly AN for our area. Obviously not worth looking that far, but funny nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Pretty cold out there this morning, current temp 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Lake cutters galore on all guidance, not excited about pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 11:09 AM, Rtd208 said: Pretty cold out there this morning, current temp 31 Expand First night in a while that we dropped below guidance in this area. Heavy frost this morning 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 11:19 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Lake cutters galore on all guidance, not excited about pattern Expand ...low 50's and rain on monday dec.12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Euro looks rather zonal (after brief arctic intrusion late this week) thru at least the 16th with the coldest air bottled up along and North of the Canadian border. At least the ridge is still there up into W Alaska in the form of a quasi -epo and the SE ridge is non-evident. Maybe a weak +pna trying to emerge post D+10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 12:44 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro looks rather zonal (after brief arctic intrusion late this week) thru at least the 16th with the coldest air bottled up along and North of the Canadian border. At least the ridge is still there up into W Alaska in the form of a quasi -epo and the SE ridge is non-evident. Maybe a weak +pna/-nao trying to emerge post D+10. Expand On 12/6/2016 at 11:19 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Lake cutters galore on all guidance, not excited about pattern Expand That's what I posted was coming of this pattern yesterday and I got attacked. I'll say it again, this is not an east coast snow pattern at all. Interior northeast yea, Ohio valley, Midwest yea. Bad pattern for the east coast though. And that poleward Aleutian ridge is not a -EPO. It's west of the EPO region. People keep mistakenly referring to it as -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 12:54 PM, snowman19 said: That's what I posted was coming of this pattern yesterday and I got attacked. I'll say it again, this is not an east coast snow pattern at all. Interior northeast yea, Ohio valley, Midwest yea. Bad pattern for the east coast though. And that poleward Aleutian ridge is not a -EPO. It's west of the EPO region. People keep mistakenly referring to it as -EPOWhere is the EPO region located? Closer to the GOA nearer the Eastern side of the Aleutians?Im not sure that pattern spells big storm for anyone quite frankly. With no SE ridge and the fast flow around the PV, not many chances for amplification unless we can get the Atlantic to cooperate. I dont see much blocking with that pattern verbatim. Looks seasonably cold and 'clipper-ish' for our areas imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 That's NOT a terrible pattern for the East Coast from maybe DCA (?) thru BOS. Likely wouldn't produce a monster storm per se but clippers with enough to get the shovels out possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 28 this morning and heavy frost. Forecast low was 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Has NYC even had a freeze yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 11:19 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Lake cutters galore on all guidance, not excited about pattern Expand How's your lakes cutter for today? So far this season, the models have went away with the lakes cutter as the days got near. On 12/6/2016 at 2:09 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: That's NOT a terrible pattern for the East Coast from maybe DCA (?) thru BOS. Likely wouldn't produce a monster storm per se but clippers with enough to get the shovels out possibly. Expand It's a good overrunning pattern. Lets just hope alot of us are on the snowy side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 2:17 PM, nzucker said: Has NYC even had a freeze yet? Expand I still haven't reached the 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 2:19 PM, Snow88 said: I still haven't reached the 20s Expand Looks like the lowest for Central Park was 34F on Nov 20. Really late freeze this year though forecasts do have upper 20s late this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 2:18 PM, Snow88 said: How's your lakes cutter for today? So far this season, the models have went away with the lakes cutter as the days got near. It's a good overrunning pattern. Lets just hope alot of us are on the snowy side. Expand I'm not sure what your arguement is? This was never a lake cutter? All the way back to a day 10 GFS, this was an initial overrunning with coastal development case in point, last Thursday and last Tuesday GFS run, same storm, timing is all that changed and wobble on track, never projected to be a cutter, All I was saying is future pattern holds several cutters with back end snow possible, my observation was correct, don't take it so personal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 28 this morning. Very heavy frost, and some black ice as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 2:17 PM, nzucker said: Has NYC even had a freeze yet? Expand 33 here looks like by Thursday night first 20s of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 23 out my way...im 40 miles west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 2:23 PM, nzucker said: Looks like the lowest for Central Park was 34F on Nov 20. Really late freeze this year though forecasts do have upper 20s late this week. Expand Bad early season cold source and lack of snow cover in Canada. The one cold shot we did have it was to windy at night to drop the temps. Models have been to low at night for temps. Numerous nights temps failed to reach the forecast low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 -22 C 850mb at hour 228 on the GFS in the metro. Low teens for the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 5:00 PM, Morris said: -22 C 850mb at hour 228 on the GFS in the metro. Low teens for the metro. Expand PV wants to visit us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 GFS is brick city for next week. Snow would be nice obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 If it won't snow it might as well be warm. Who wants cold and dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 2:17 PM, nzucker said: Has NYC even had a freeze yet? Expand Not yet. 2016 is the 12th case on record that NYC has not had its first freeze until December. Six of those cases have occurred after 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 2:23 PM, nzucker said: Looks like the lowest for Central Park was 34F on Nov 20. Really late freeze this year though forecasts do have upper 20s late this week. Expand My guess is we'll hit it sometime early Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Just for the record - a Dec 1-10 first freeze is on par with the lowlands of South Carolina outside of Charleston proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 GFS gives some of us in the interior a shot at single digit and sub zero temps dec 15 time frame, then a torch around Dec 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Lets get the cold in here first, then worry about the long range. Of course temps will moderate, but the GFS is just as likely to flip the storm out to sea at 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Euro drops a lot of precip in the area over the next 7-10 days but it's mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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