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December 2016 Discussion & Observations

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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leo1000

leo1000

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2016 at 7:49 PM, Eduardo said:

Legit LOL!!! :lol:

Seems like the million-dollar question now is whether the coast defies climo and manages to snow in this pattern too.  As Chris has shown, WAR seems to render it a toss-up...for now.

 

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I wish WAR would go away. Just kidding we do need it to some degree. 

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2016 at 6:14 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I would like to point out however, for those of us that have seen accumulations and snowfall thus far... models that have been fantastic as of late

 

Nam 12k (4K has been under-doing precip)

RGEM

HRRR (RAP has been garbage)

and here's one not often noticed but I still watch, the NMM mesoscale model < did very well with the November over performance storm for interior 

 

all have performed exceptionally well for the few events we've seen so far. 

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Surprisingly the NAM has been decent up here especially with the over performer right before thanksgiving. RGEM is usually money

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Sundog

Sundog

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 12:25 AM, Morris said:

 

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Stephen's mistake was to compare model runs 360 hours out. Seriously? Like this person is for real?

I swear everyone is just getting bored with the regular model discussions we used to have years past and people have to push deeper into fantasy land to get excited. 

It's like how now Black Friday is now actually more like Black Thursday. More and more extreme with each year that goes by.

Why is this person comparing runs for 50 days from now? Because cutting off model watching at a reasonable hour just doesn't do it anymore for these ultra weenies. Social media has only made things 100 times worse. 

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 1:01 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

They've been so waffly the last 2-3 years it's hard to trust them 

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I'm at work still so I didn't look yet. But just read the Mid-Atlantic forum and two posters, Bob Chill being one of them, who I trust, said they look mundane and not impressive for cold or snow and the Pacific pattern basically looks meh. "Not a disaster" is how it was put. For Bob not to be impressed says something, he's always optimistic. Don't know what Mr. Bastardi is looking at but those guys aren't impressed at all. 

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dmillz25

dmillz25

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 1:30 AM, snowman19 said:

I'm at work still so I didn't look yet. But just read the Mid-Atlantic forum and two posters, Bob Chill being one of them, who I trust, said they look mundane and not impressive for cold or snow and the Pacific pattern basically looks meh. "Not a disaster" is how it was put. For Bob not to be impressed says something, he's always optimistic. Don't know what Mr. Bastardi is looking at but those guys aren't impressed at all. 

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Remember where he's located. We're higher in latitude than they are so what looks mundane for them may look good for us

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 1:30 AM, snowman19 said:

I'm at work still so I didn't look yet. But just read the Mid-Atlantic forum and two posters, Bob Chill being one of them, who I trust, said they look mundane and not impressive for cold or snow and the Pacific pattern basically looks meh. "Not a disaster" is how it was put. For Bob not to be impressed says something, he's always optimistic. Don't know what Mr. Bastardi is looking at but those guys aren't impressed at all. 

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lol , stop days 1 thru 21 are really cold .

2M temps are cold all the way thru .

After week 3 which was warm last week  ( I know you posted on them ) I don't use em anyway.

I posted all 46 days away, trust me the first 21 are BN .

 

Don't know what Bob's looking at  . He's a VG poster but I agree with Joe thru week  3 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 1:34 AM, dmillz25 said:

Remember where he's located. We're higher in latitude than they are so what looks mundane for them may look good for us

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We were just discussing them in the mid atl forum. They aren't awful but certainly not anything to be excited about.  The mean may be skewed cold by the extreme one week of cold in the medium range but once past day 12 it's pretty bland and skewed a bit above normal over most of the CONUS.  After we warm around the 20th there is one brief good looking period early January but then it breaks down and an eastern ridge develops again. And yes keep in mind that forum is dca centric so a blah pattern for there is a bit better for you. But on a long range smoothed h5 mean the general look we want isn't THAT different. So it's a mixed bag kind of. Certainly nothing looks like an oh crap how do we get out of that pattern coming.  No raging +nao/-Pna type pattern that we look stuck in that can be break out of. Just generally ambiguous.  Slight adjustments and we could be in a better pattern. But as is the pattern looks flawed and not too exciting.  I guess you just have to translate JB speak. It looks like the best ever= average. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 1:56 AM, PB GFI said:

 

lol , stop days 1 thru 21 are really cold .

2M temps are cold all the way thru .

After week 3 which was warm last week  ( I know you posted on them ) I don't use em anyway.

I posted all 46 days away, trust me the first 21 are BN .

 

Don't know what Bob's looking at  . He's a VG poster but I agree with Joe thru week  3 

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I suspect Bob like myself was looking at H5 not surface temps. We aren't that interested in cold were looking for snow patterns. Yes cold is needed for snow but not every cold pattern is good for snow. This next week should prove that. Being on the east side of a trough with no upstream blocking means cold dry warm wet. It can average cold but won't produce snow. Being on the backside of a trough centered along the coast is likely to be a clipper or two and mostly dry. There are two such periods in there. There is one week I would say looks good for NYC but otherwise I'm not excited by the look when comparing the H5 anomalies to favorable snow patterns.  I don't think they look bad just not anything to be super excited over either. JB typically over hypes everything so not surprised. 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 2:08 AM, psuhoffman said:

I suspect Bob like myself was looking at H5 not surface temps. We aren't that interested in cold were looking for snow patterns. Yes cold is needed for snow but not every cold pattern is good for snow. This next week should prove that. Being on the east side of a trough with no upstream blocking means cold dry warm wet. It can average cold but won't produce snow. Being on the backside of a trough centered along the coast is likely to be a clipper or two and mostly dry. There are two such periods in there. There is one week I would say looks good for NYC but otherwise I'm not excited by the look when comparing the H5 anomalies to favorable snow patterns.  

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The 46 day ensembles are the new weeklies and according to Ryan Maue skill score higher than the old weeklies .

Check out the 46 day ensembles 500 thru week 3 , they are very good .

It may be that you are looking at the reg weeklies? 

 

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 2:09 AM, PB GFI said:

The 46 day ensembles are the new weeklies and according to Ryan Maue skill score higher than the old weeklies .

Check out the 46 day ensembles 500 thru week 3 , they are very good .

It may be that you are looking at the reg weeklies? 

 

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  On 12/6/2016 at 2:09 AM, PB GFI said:

The 46 day ensembles are the new weeklies and according to Ryan Maue skill score higher than the old weeklies .

Check out the 46 day ensembles 500 thru week 3 , they are very good .

It may be that you are looking at the reg weeklies? 

 

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Ah this would explain a lot. I respect your analysis a lot so I was a bit surprised by the pretty drastically different takes.  I was wondering if I missed something. The discussion in the mid Atlantic is a few hours old and when I looked earlier the new 46 day ensemble wasn't out yet only the regular "old" weeklies. We are probably analyzing two different things. Lol

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 2:16 AM, psuhoffman said:

 

Ah this would explain a lot. I respect your analysis a lot so I was a bit surprised by the pretty drastically different takes.  I was wondering if I missed something. The discussion in the mid Atlantic is a few hours old and when I looked earlier the new 46 day ensemble wasn't out yet only the regular "old" weeklies. We are probably analyzing two different things. Lol

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I don't look them after week 3 anyway.  I promise both are trash. 

I just saw the first 21 days and said ooh I like that, Joe saying thru 46 was a bit much .

5 days ago they were warm / they flip like the CFS.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 2:21 AM, PB GFI said:

 

I don't look them after week 3 anyway.  I promise both are trash. 

I just saw the first 21 days and said ooh I like that, Joe saying thru 46 was a bit much .

5 days ago they were warm / they flip like the CFS.

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Oh I don't weight them that much. Just another data point. But it was the analysis of what they showed that was interesting. After looking at the new 46 day they are extremely cold. Wow cold. But again the h5 doesn't really strike me as awesome from a snow perspective. Not bad just not as good as the cold might indicate. The trough is centered a bit  west of where I would like it week one and two then a bit north of ideal week 3. Leaves the door open to anything that amps up to cut. Jb even just said as much that the cold is against the height field. Week 4 is especially odd. Very high heights and bitter cold. Kinda lol. Another point is these are based off last nights run that was super cold yet today's eps flipped warm. So a 46 day run off today's run probably looks worse. Neither is useful just pointing out the euro long range has been erratic like you said. 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2016 at 2:47 AM, psuhoffman said:

Oh I don't weight them that much. Just another data point. But it was the analysis of what they showed that was interesting. After looking at the new 46 day they are extremely cold. Wow cold. But again the h5 doesn't really strike me as awesome from a snow perspective. Not bad just not as good as the cold might indicate. The trough is centered a bit  west of where I would like it week one and two then a bit north of ideal week 3. Leaves the door open to anything that amps up to cut. Jb even just said as much that the cold is against the height field. Week 4 is especially odd. Very high heights and bitter cold. Kinda lol. Another point is these are based off last nights run that was super cold yet today's eps flipped warm. So a 46 day run off today's run probably looks worse. Neither is useful just pointing out the euro long range has been erratic like you said. 

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Good analysis man. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

GFS is cold starting next week

Snow showers/ flurries are possible for Thursday and Friday

More snow is possible on Sunday ( CMC has it )

Then the overrunning that the 18z GFS showed that went north of the area went further south and had snow in our area

Cold run

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

 

  On 12/6/2016 at 4:45 AM, Snow88 said:

GFS is cold starting next week

Snow showers/ flurries are possible for Thursday and Friday

More snow is possible on Sunday ( CMC has it )

Then the overrunning that the 18z GFS showed that went north of the area went further south and had snow in our area

Cold run

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Temps are in the 40s Sunday night and Monday

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