SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 4:02 PM, bluewave said: The SE Ridge or WAR has been a problem for the coast during the last 5 Decembers. With the exception of the mid-December 2013 snow, all the significant snowfall for the coast has held off until JFM. Having the amazing -AO/-NAO and record snowfall for December 2009 and 2010 was a pretty rare feat to pull off two years in a row. Expand JB saw this coming as I posted awhile back. He was somewhat concerned when he posted the WxBell winter outlook that there was potential for the northeast and MA to be very mild in December due to the WATL SSTs fueling a SE ridge. It doesn't appear as of now the major positive departures will occur, but certainly could be above with lack of snow issues. I think once again though that issue relaxes after December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 5:21 PM, SnowGoose69 said: JB saw this coming as I posted awhile back. He was somewhat concerned when he posted the WxBell winter outlook that there was potential for the northeast and MA to be very mild in December due to the WATL SSTs fueling a SE ridge. It doesn't appear as of now the major positive departures will occur, but certainly could be above with lack of snow issues. I think once again though that issue relaxes after December Expand Strongly agree on the warm water issues. This will become our friend later in the winter if we get a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Eps looks great around mid month with -nao and pv lobe trapped underneath the block. But we shall see if that's true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 The NAM shows a cold pocket at 850mb for tomorrow's event over NYC NENJ LHV as the secondary gets going. Wouldn't that translate to snow at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 good thing, cause that GFS gets ugly warm around Dec 21 with 60+ F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 4:22 PM, snowman19 said: Exactly. This pattern is awful for snow unless you are in the far interior northeast and New England. SE ridge and very progressive flow no NAO blocking. Cutter, warm and rain then cold and dry after the cold fropa. Wash, rinse repeat Expand Horrible analysis . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 5:49 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: good thing, cause that GFS gets ugly warm around Dec 21 with 60+ F Expand Go check out the ensembles , ignore OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 5:19 PM, Brian5671 said: The '13 event had some brutally cold air in here which helped-took longer than models had predicted for it to be scoured out-we had 6 inches of snow covered by a close to a half inch of ice on top. '08 event here was all snow, but the rain line stopped just south of me.... Expand On 12/5/2016 at 5:20 PM, Allsnow said: Perhaps we can pull off a 2008 with a front end dump before a change to rain along the coast. The cold air will be around next week Expand On 12/5/2016 at 5:21 PM, SnowGoose69 said: JB saw this coming as I posted awhile back. He was somewhat concerned when he posted the WxBell winter outlook that there was potential for the northeast and MA to be very mild in December due to the WATL SSTs fueling a SE ridge. It doesn't appear as of now the major positive departures will occur, but certainly could be above with lack of snow issues. I think once again though that issue relaxes after December Expand It looks like the coldest departures relative to normal will tend to focus near Montana according to the ensemble means going forward. So at least we have a source of Arctic air over North America that could help out with a thread the needle type of gradient pattern. It's really a roll of the dice whether the SE Ridge messes up all our potential of reaching near to above normal December snowfall or an event or two can sneak in along the lines of 2013 and 2008. Sometimes we get lucky and cold pooling out near Montana during December spills east in January like we have seen on several occasions in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 POSTED THIS AWAY . Heres the idea when you introduce Siberian sourced cold air into the forecast area like this , it will find a way to snow . I think I got part 1 correct but the snow is always the / my bust potential. As it is those N and W of the city may see snow 3 x this week , albeit light . But as the cold gets established and remember this air always beats the models because of it sources regioned density it could end up slightly colder than modeled for a few days . This looks to continue into early Christmas week and then we will see , but that's 2 weeks away so I disagreed with those who call this transient. I believe when the pattern relaxes AN snow will have fallen around the area . EPS/GEFS. Quote Options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 5:10 PM, snowman19 said: I have zero confidence in anything the operational GFS shows. Expand Did you check out the recent GEFS and EPS? Winter is on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 So the same people who just a week ago said it was not going to get cold are now saying it is not going to snow . Man how many times are you guys going to listen to these peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 WPO / SOURCE REGION AND 500 s TRUMP OP RUNS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 5:51 PM, PB GFI said: Go check out the ensembles , ignore OP Expand In all honesty I hate the Gefs/GFS op, the EPS is by far the most reliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 5:59 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: In all honesty I hate the Gefs/, the EPS is by far the most reliable Expand Agree , they look the same , that`s why I buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 5:59 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: In all honesty I hate the Gefs/GFS op, the EPS is by far the most reliable Expand EPS also haven't been that accurate but are usually more accurate than the GEFS GEFS and EPS are similiar moving forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 I would like to point out however, for those of us that have seen accumulations and snowfall thus far... models that have been fantastic as of late Nam 12k (4K has been under-doing precip) RGEM HRRR (RAP has been garbage) and here's one not often noticed but I still watch, the NMM mesoscale model < did very well with the November over performance storm for interior all have performed exceptionally well for the few events we've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 5:58 PM, PB GFI said: WPO / SOURCE REGION AND 500 s TRUMP OP RUNS . Expand Yeah, you can see how the EPS has been coming around to a stronger ridge there lasting longer than just a few days ago. We have seen models underestimate these ridges which set up in anomalously low sea ice and well above normal SST areas. old run for 0z 12/15 New run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 i'd like to see the PV be east of that position in canada. anything that amplifies will be prone to cutting to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:22 PM, bluewave said: Yeah, you can see how the EPS has been coming around to a stronger ridge there lasting longer than just a few days ago. We have seen models underestimate these ridges which set up in anomalously low sea ice and well above normal SST areas. old run for 0z 12/15 New run Expand That air mass means business . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:25 PM, PB GFI said: That air mass means business . Expand This is one of the more extreme temperature departure drops that we have seen in places like Montana and North Dakota. Areas that were +10 or higher in November will be -20 or lower for the next week and potentially beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:07 PM, WEATHERBUFF said: gfs has been horrible lately Expand Euro also lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:48 PM, bluewave said: This is one of the more extreme temperature departure drops that we have seen in places like Montana and North Dakota. Areas that were +10 or higher in November will be -20 or lower for the next week and potentially beyond. Expand Yeh we get even colder through the 20th . Then we will have to see what`s after that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 7:01 PM, PB GFI said: Yeh we get even colder through the 20th . Then we will have to see what`s after that . Expand what are your thoughts for post 12/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:59 PM, Snow88 said: Euro also lol Expand These models are confused by the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 7:04 PM, Googlymoogly said: what are your thoughts for post 12/20 Expand Prudence dictates we pull back the last week in Dec . But too what ? N AN ETC Duno . We typically do not run 3- 4 week anomalies like that . Will need to look at where the better guidance at 500 falls too in another 5 days or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 EPO on the Euro looks great The graphic from Wxbell has it crashing next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Euro pinches off the pv at the end of the run south of Hudson Bay. That would be a snow pattern for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 5:58 PM, PB GFI said: WPO / SOURCE REGION AND 500 s TRUMP OP RUNS . Expand Legit LOL!!! Seems like the million-dollar question now is whether the coast defies climo and manages to snow in this pattern too. As Chris has shown, WAR seems to render it a toss-up...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 NAM continues to look wetter for LHV tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 5:31 PM, dmillz25 said: The NAM shows a cold pocket at 850mb for tomorrow's event over NYC NENJ LHV as the secondary gets going. Wouldn't that translate to snow at the surface? Expand Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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