WarrenCtyWx Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 On 12/1/2016 at 6:37 PM, bluewave said: The only 4 winters that the interior did better than the coast since 2000 were 2001-2002, 2006-2007, 2007-2008, and 2011-2012. They were all +EPO dominant winters. 2 La Ninas 1 El Nino 1 neutral Expand I would also add 2000-2001 and 2002-2003 to that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 12z euro holds serve with the light snow event sunday night and has a mix bag tuesday night for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 On 12/1/2016 at 8:45 PM, Allsnow said: 12z euro holds serve with the light snow event sunday night and has a mix bag tuesday night for the area Expand Any way this could become more significant and get a decent amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 On 12/1/2016 at 9:15 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said: Any way this could become more significant and get a decent amount Expand Western Pa does well, it's nothing more than a dusting to 1", if anything at all for most of us in this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 On 12/1/2016 at 9:15 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said: Any way this could become more significant and get a decent amount Expand Not really seeing that. i guess the energy could be stronger but it will be hard to accumulate as surface temps will be in mid to upper 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 On 12/1/2016 at 9:22 PM, bluewave said: The JMA, EPS, and GEFS all want to go to a strong +EPO by mid-December. Expand PAC air flooding the conus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 On 12/1/2016 at 9:35 PM, Allsnow said: PAC air flooding the conus? Expand It's 2 weeks out so I'm sure things will change by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 On 12/1/2016 at 9:42 PM, WEATHERBUFF said: It's 2 weeks out so I'm sure things will change by then. Expand On 12/1/2016 at 9:22 PM, bluewave said: The JMA, EPS, and GEFS all want to go to a strong +EPO by mid-December. Expand The new CanSIPS is even worse, as in 2011-2012 worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 On 12/1/2016 at 10:10 PM, bluewave said: If the +EPO verifies and models continue over doing Atlantic blocking then that could be possible. We'll have to see how long that poleward Aleutian ridge can hold on before fading. Expand Bluewave, you can add the new Euro weeklies to the list of models showing a big positive EPO come mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 GFS jumped back on the train for interior on upcoming event, most north of rockland ATT snow/mix until the very end when precip is through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 On 12/1/2016 at 10:03 PM, snowman19 said: The new CanSIPS is even worse, as in 2011-2012 worse Expand Oof - 2011-12 'round these parts is almost as bad as the grand-daddy: March 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 On 12/1/2016 at 9:35 PM, Allsnow said: PAC air flooding the conus? Expand Yup.Rip-roaring PAC jet on that panel with a bad NAO too. Favorable for cutters if anything and maybe the upper Midwest and Maine getting snow. That has to hugely change for the NYC area to have a shot at anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 On 12/2/2016 at 1:36 AM, pazzo83 said: Oof - 2011-12 'round these parts is almost as bad as the grand-daddy: March 2001. Expand Nah that was just one storm, 2011-12 was the whole winter minus one 3" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 EPS is BN from Dec 9-16 One +1 day for NYC/south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 I still like the Dec 10-15 timeframe to sneak in a warning level snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The new CANSIPS still has no blue in the lower 48 for the next 12 months. The winter goes +1, +3, +3 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 On 12/2/2016 at 2:36 AM, Stormlover74 said: Nah that was just one storm, 2011-12 was the whole winter minus one 3" storm Expand My personal worst winter...until last winter happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Out of range but nam shows promise for Sunday/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 On 12/1/2016 at 10:03 PM, snowman19 said: The new CanSIPS is even worse, as in 2011-2012 worse Expand Not too reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 On 12/2/2016 at 2:51 AM, CIK62 said: The new CANSIPS still has no blue in the lower 48 for the next 12 months. The winter goes +1, +3, +3 for us. Expand Those numbers are about normal considering recent trends. We really should ignore 1981-2010 averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The euro overnight continues with the light snow Monday morning. Surface continues to be warm so it much will accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Havn't we seen good winters even with a positive epo? I am sure there are some in the analogs. If we can get the pna and ao to cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 On 12/2/2016 at 12:31 PM, bluewave said: Not during the 2000's. We needed at least one DJF month with a -EPO for a good winter. The one common denominator for the worst winters of 01-02, 06-07, 07-08, and 11-12 was a dominant +EPO pattern. Expand Thanks. Hopefully the positive epo is short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 On 12/2/2016 at 12:36 PM, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. Hopefully the positive epo is short lived. Expand If it even comes to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 On 12/2/2016 at 12:46 PM, dmillz25 said: If it even comes to fruition Expand It's looking pretty unanimous with the models starting after 12/15. I think the question is going to become not if but for how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 On 12/2/2016 at 12:52 PM, snowman19 said: It's looking pretty unanimous with the models starting after 12/15. I think the question is going to become not if but for how long? Expand Yes but you know that these models can be unanimously in sync then diverge as time goes on and vice versa. Especially it being 2 weeks out. If it happens so be it but until its less than a week out I'm taking it with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 On 12/2/2016 at 1:13 PM, dmillz25 said: Yes but you know that these models can be unanimously in sync then diverge as time goes on and vice versa. Especially it being 2 weeks out. If it happens so be it but until its less than a week out I'm taking it with a grain of salt Expand Before then we should have a few threats with cold air around. Obviously we still risk cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 On 12/2/2016 at 1:13 PM, dmillz25 said: Yes but you know that these models can be unanimously in sync then diverge as time goes on and vice versa. Especially it being 2 weeks out. If it happens so be it but until its less than a week out I'm taking it with a grain of salt Expand Taking anything 2 weeks out, especially climo models is not wise, the cold air was 2 weeks out all winter last year.... it felt like each week the pattern change was always 2 weeks out... also the EPS is still BN, past Dec 15 with a single 0- +1 day for metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 On 12/2/2016 at 12:52 PM, snowman19 said: It's looking pretty unanimous with the models starting after 12/15. I think the question is going to become not if but for how long? And we all know those LR and weeklies are consistently accurate. The phantom day 10 storms, case in point. Sarcasm intended. I dont trust the LR stuff while the pattern/season is transitioning especially. Could be right, could be wrong but I wouldnt be buying stock in those D+15 forecasts at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 On 12/2/2016 at 1:33 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: And we all know those LR and weeklies are consistently accurate. The phantom day 10 storms, case in point. Sarcasm intended. I dont trust the LR stuff while the pattern/season is transitioning especially. Could be right, could be wrong but I wouldnt be buying stock in those D+15 forecasts at this time. Expand I'd normally agree even with unanimous models in the long range saying raging Pacific jet and strong +EPO, but the caveat here is the stratospheric PV. It's looking likely now that it strengthens substantially and moves right over the north pole. If that happens, we are in real serious trouble and I mean real serious. There's no way to sugar coat that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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