MJO812 Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: I thought the GEFS run was fine. And not a lot of difference from eps. Gefs is fine Pretty similiar to the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 at a kind of deeper perspective ... I'm noticing also that we're being dealt reverses, too. everything heretofore discussed is true, but no sooner does this 12z Euro starts-a rollin' on in and it has no lead side concern at all. Fascinating. We said 'so long as,' in deference to that lead polar high - well, ha! didn't take long, eh? That whole faux cause-and-effect is mocking us (haha). For appreciators of interesting weather in general, it would almost be better for the journey if the ridge would just go nuts and drive us to 70+ for some record fun that way. Also, I'm not as convinced for a -EPO. That teleconnector look hasn't been entirely stable as an outlook in the GEFs. Granted I'm not speaking in terms of the EPS here, but the GEFs seems to have pushed that off in time per nightly runs, as well as showing some continuity issues with magnitude. We'll see... but, persistence in any physical sysem needs to have its ass kicked first and that requires something to come along and disrupt the static mode. Not sure we are seeing 'what' that could be in the atmosphere. It could happen - sure. Just saying not as confident is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 So nice to see that Euro run ,evolution as it seems it should be , great nor'easter next weekend . We snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: So nice to see that Euro run ,evolution as it seems it should be , great nor'easter next weekend . We snow Verbatim for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Monster storm verbatim on day 9 euro. Stormy run overall. Far different than previous Decembers. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Verbatim for NNE. you can see what the model's doing wrong .. aside from even attempting a chart beyond D6.5 that is. the southern component wave is waaay too conserved as it approaches the western Tenn valley area.. that thing's getting sheared to sh!t in that depiction pretty well prior to all that..which probably means it's a n-stream dominant flow and yadda yadda yadda. Euro has a no compunctions whatsoever at bringing height falls E of the MV over N/A as a general bias-theme and well - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: you can see what the model's doing wrong .. aside from even attempting a chart beyond D6.5 that is. the southern component wave is waaay too conserved as it approaches the western Tenn valley area.. that thing's getting sheared to sh!t in that depiction pretty well prior to all that..which probably means it's a n-stream dominant flow and yadda yadda yadda. Euro has a no compunctions whatsoever at bringing height falls E of the MV over N/A as a general bias-theme and well - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 At least it sort of shows something the ensembles have been showing. The op run had no clue (and perhaps still doesn't for other reasons). It's in clown range still as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Verbatim for NNE. I see accumulations well deep in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Pretty much evolving as most of us expect . Climo taking over with winter becoming established more and more. Deep deep snows in Eastern Quebec NNE allowing cyrospheric response . Still looking for the 8th or so on for even the coast to increase chances for sustained winter. About time we have a traditional December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Around the 8th does look like it could be the first real snow threat for many in the region and thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Dec 5 is starting to get more interesting on EC ensembles. Def favors NNE right now but it's worth watching. At 8 days out its not worth parsing details but given we have some established snow cover over much of the region to the north, CAD is going to be deeper and more effective in the event of a late redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Dec 5 is starting to get more interesting on EC ensembles. Def favors NNE right now but it's worth watching. At 8 days out its not worth parsing details but given we have some established snow cover over much of the region to the north, CAD is going to be deeper and more effective in the event of a late redevelopment. Pretty sweet EPS run deep into Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Winter is just about upon us. This time next week I suspect we are tracking first winter storm threat early that week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I see accumulations well deep in SNE Avoid the weenie snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Avoid the weenie snow maps. You know me better than that, cmon, even EPS has it. Verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Winter is just about upon us. This time next week I suspect we are tracking first winter storm threat early that week I prob won't get really invested until next weekend hopefully we are taking steps in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You know me better than that, cmon, even EPS has it. Verbatim Well it's far out obviously but I didn't see a snowy solution in SNE with those 850 temps on the op which is what I was referencing regarding your comment. Not far off though. Good to see something modeled anyways. We'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2016 Author Share Posted November 27, 2016 That first event for potential widespread snow at least on the front end around 12/5 is a swfe it would seem. Pretty far out in time but 11-15 gets pretty cold as wee approach mid December with an active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 How much snow on the EURO after the temps crash as the low moves southeast of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2016 Author Share Posted November 27, 2016 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: How much snow on the EURO after the temps crash as the low moves southeast of us? Zilch for Cape Cod, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Really, even if the low moves southeast of Nantucket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Really, even if the low moves southeast of Nantucket? Nothing for cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 49 minutes ago, weathafella said: Zilch for Cape Cod, MA. I sense some enjoyment in that post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2016 Author Share Posted November 27, 2016 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I sense some enjoyment in that post Lol.....gonna be a long winter with James multiple one line posts......about fiction. The biggest snow weenie amidst is lives in the one place in New England where it doesn't snow much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol.....gonna be a long winter with James multiple one line posts......about fiction. The biggest snow weenie amidst is lives in the one place in New England where it doesn't snow much. You aren't alone, Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 I thought zilch was pretty self explanatory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Naw Dryslot, I know what zilch means pathetic posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 LOL it could end up cutting. Who cares what it has this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL it could end up cutting. Who cares what it has this far out. The 18Z GFS should calm the excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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