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December pattern/forecast thread


weathafella

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at a kind of deeper perspective ... I'm noticing also that we're being dealt reverses, too. 

everything heretofore discussed is true, but no sooner does this 12z Euro starts-a rollin' on in and it has no lead side concern at all.  Fascinating. We said 'so long as,' in deference to that lead polar high - well, ha!  didn't take long, eh?  That whole faux cause-and-effect is mocking us (haha).

For appreciators of interesting weather in general, it would almost be better for the journey if the ridge would just go nuts and drive us to 70+ for some record fun that way. 

Also, I'm not as convinced for a -EPO. That teleconnector look hasn't been entirely stable as an outlook in the GEFs.  Granted I'm not speaking in terms of the EPS here, but the GEFs seems to have pushed that off in time per nightly runs, as well as showing some continuity issues with magnitude.  We'll see... but, persistence in any physical sysem needs to have its ass kicked first and that requires something to come along and disrupt the static mode.  Not sure we are seeing 'what' that could be in the atmosphere. It could happen - sure.  Just saying not as confident is all.  

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Verbatim for NNE. 

you can see what the model's doing wrong .. aside from even attempting a chart beyond D6.5 that is.

the southern component wave is waaay too conserved as it approaches the western Tenn valley area.. that thing's getting sheared to sh!t in that depiction pretty well prior to all that..which probably means it's a n-stream dominant flow and yadda yadda yadda. 

Euro has a no compunctions whatsoever at bringing height falls E of the MV over N/A as a general bias-theme and well -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you can see what the model's doing wrong .. aside from even attempting a chart beyond D6.5 that is.

the southern component wave is waaay too conserved as it approaches the western Tenn valley area.. that thing's getting sheared to sh!t in that depiction pretty well prior to all that..which probably means it's a n-stream dominant flow and yadda yadda yadda. 

Euro has a no compunctions whatsoever at bringing height falls E of the MV over N/A as a general bias-theme and well -

 

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Pretty much evolving as most of us expect .  Climo taking over with winter becoming established more and more. Deep deep snows in Eastern Quebec NNE allowing cyrospheric response .  Still looking for the 8th or so on for even the coast to increase chances for sustained winter. About time we have a traditional December 

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Dec 5 is starting to get more interesting on EC ensembles. Def favors NNE right now but it's worth watching. At 8 days out its not worth parsing details but given we have some established snow cover over much of the region to the north, CAD is going to be deeper and more effective in the event of a late redevelopment. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Dec 5 is starting to get more interesting on EC ensembles. Def favors NNE right now but it's worth watching. At 8 days out its not worth parsing details but given we have some established snow cover over much of the region to the north, CAD is going to be deeper and more effective in the event of a late redevelopment. 

Pretty sweet EPS run deep into Dec

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14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You know me better than that, cmon, even EPS has it. Verbatim 

Well it's far out obviously but I didn't see a snowy solution in SNE with those 850 temps on the op which is what I was referencing regarding your comment. Not far off though.  Good to see something modeled anyways. We'll see how it goes.

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