December pattern/forecast thread

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I need to set up my weather observations station here in Harwich, MA before any winter storm comes.  I am getting a security system installed eventually to monitor the snowfall outside from my basement, but I am still going to measure the snowfall amounts outside during a snowstorm.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

 

This is the Gulf Stream Northern Wall index data measured in six longitude locations of the northern Gulf Stream wall it is the average SST anomaly for each location this is over the last 40 years.GSNW

 

Table 1: GSNW index data[edit]

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Ann
1966	0.71	-1.52	-0.45	-1.25	-0.69	0.83	3.08	1.14	4.60	-0.16	0.62	0.92	0.65
1967	-0.88	-0.55	-1.48	-1.03	-1.09	-0.87	2.00	-0.59	-0.45	-1.02	2.46	1.14	-0.39
1968	-1.03	1.24	-0.41	-2.13	2.01	0.06	-1.74	-1.10	0.50	1.07	2.09	3.06	0.30
1969	0.94	0.52	1.29	-0.79	0.19	-1.03	-1.05	-2.49	-3.01	-0.33	-2.38	0.13	-0.69
1970	-2.07	-2.72	-1.73	-0.17	-0.02	1.79	-0.42	-2.33	-2.30	-1.24	-1.14	0.36	-1.06
1971	-0.94	-1.51	-1.76	-2.29	-1.28	0.01	-5.19	-3.14	-1.86	-1.79	-2.03	0.79	-1.88
1972	-0.14	-1.30	-0.33	-2.15	-2.15	-2.63	0.12	-1.85	-2.21	-2.90	-0.11	0.02	-1.31
1973	-2.16	-1.32	-1.31	-0.72	-3.33	-2.06	-2.13	-0.28	-0.28	-0.61	0.24	0.16	-1.18
1974	0.79	-3.00	-1.25	0.25	0.03	-0.69	-1.41	-1.27	0.46	-0.23	-1.03	0.16	-0.63
1975	0.22	-0.94	0.99	1.08	-1.24	-0.98	1.62	3.12	-0.45	-1.03	-2.47	0.13	0.00
1976	-0.38	-2.09	-4.31	-0.74	-0.21	0.37	-0.70	-1.01	-1.30	0.92	0.07	0.84	-0.71
1977	2.12	-0.40	1.79	0.92	-2.22	0.51	-0.78	-0.76	0.04	-0.26	-0.71	0.27	0.04
1978	0.04	-2.48	0.82	0.32	-2.61	-3.00	0.06	-1.42	-0.44	-0.21	-0.65	1.18	-0.89
1979	-3.40	-2.60	-2.64	-1.65	-1.48	0.38	-0.45	-1.92	-0.25	-1.99	-2.02	0.25	-1.52
1980	-0.63	0.86	1.41	-1.40	-0.48	-1.94	1.09	-2.56	0.80	1.87	-0.44	1.68	-0.26
1981	-1.93	0.40	-1.05	-2.68	-0.33	-0.73	0.22	-0.44	-0.04	2.52	-1.39	1.34	-0.57
1982	0.58	-1.77	-1.19	-2.75	-1.36	-1.42	-1.87	-0.37	-2.42	0.05	0.40	1.26	-1.12
1983	-0.52	-1.38	0.31	-0.67	-1.50	-1.15	-0.95	3.40	1.00	-0.41	0.72	1.25	0.01
1984	0.81	1.10	0.79	0.69	-0.42	-1.15	-2.36	3.03	-0.23	1.58	1.84	1.85	0.63
1985	1.45	0.63	-0.27	1.79	3.22	1.28	1.09	0.70	1.47	4.54	0.30	0.28	1.37
1986	2.82	-1.14	-1.64	-0.75	-0.95	0.63	-0.02	-1.81	-0.77	1.16	1.30	0.20	-0.08
1987	-2.36	-0.97	-2.73	-1.88	-0.63	-0.44	0.29	0.93	1.59	0.83	0.17	0.74	-0.49
1988	-1.37	1.56	0.21	-0.32	-0.99	-1.18	0.38	-0.22	1.98	0.59	0.40	0.08	0.09
1989	-1.04	0.17	0.65	1.14	1.35	0.80	-0.17	-1.64	-0.13	0.57	1.58	2.37	0.47
1990	1.95	1.31	0.39	0.75	0.40	-1.23	-0.30	1.12	0.98	0.83	1.13	0.90	0.69
1991	0.41	0.33	-0.23	0.38	1.63	2.18	1.54	1.77	2.83	2.31	0.99	1.52	1.31
1992	2.13	0.75	1.35	0.57	1.05	0.06	0.46	0.63	1.00	0.53	0.72	3.23	1.04
1993	-0.60	0.95	-2.49	-0.02	1.03	1.06	0.00	1.31	1.97	1.76	2.36	1.31	0.72
1994	2.54	2.10	1.90	1.09	0.65	2.24	1.19	0.81	0.24	0.28	-0.66	4.64	1.42
1995	4.87	2.93	1.60	0.92	0.75	2.37	1.79	2.94	2.69	2.61	2.32	0.04	2.15
1996	2.42	0.43	1.93	-0.41	-1.04	-1.17	-0.48	-1.13	0.54	-0.03	-0.85	1.94	-0.14
1997	-0.34	-0.50	-1.46	-0.37	0.64	-0.49	0.84	-0.55	-0.71	-0.48	-1.20	0.34	-0.36
1998	1.01	0.18	0.33	-3.33	-2.39	-0.81	-1.02	-0.84	0.58	0.29	-2.05	0.10	-0.68
1999	-0.27	-0.45	-0.74	-0.66	0.81	0.34	-1.99	-0.66	-0.86	1.92	0.65	0.52	-0.11
2000	-0.05	1.33	2.21	-0.01	0.30	0.91	1.26	0.93	2.19	2.84	2.95	2.29	1.43
2001	2.16	1.74	3.85	2.40	1.51	-0.07	0.80	1.09	1.15	-0.49	1.38	1.60	1.43
2002	0.09	0.77	0.36	0.04	0.17	-0.56	5.08	2.22	1.85	1.22	0.57	0.60	0.93
2003	1.02	0.08	2.15	0.18	-1.38	-1.26	1.14	-1.15	-0.40	-0.55	-0.32	0.62	0.01
2004	-1.66	-1.07	-1.27	-2.18	-1.32	-1.84	-1.68	-0.04	-1.44	0.84	0.12	1.26	-0.86
2005	0.83	0.32	-0.78	0.02	0.51	-2.03	-2.59	-0.95	0.31	0.68	0.06	0.17	-0.29
2006	-0.66	-0.54	1.78	-2.76	-0.80	-0.20	-0.37	0.31	1.32	3.82	2.31	1.97	0.52
2007	0.79	0.00	1.03	1.23	0.68	0.95	-0.69	0.29	0.67	0.49	0.37	0.51	0.44
2008	-0.66	2.63	0.97	-0.67	-2.82	-0.67	1.16	-1.04	-0.27	0.96	0.24	3.33	-0.29
2009	1.99	-0.45	-2.45	-0.68	-1.35	0.27	-0.14	0.81	1.38	0.82	0.67	0.53	0.12
2010	0.69	1.12	-1.17	-0.49	-2.22	0.49	0.68	0.79	-0.49	-1.09	-0.25	1.19	-0.26

[CoastalWx]

Anyways, I would reserve excitement on the 5th deal. Some signs it could be forced well south as a minor event. Don't weenie out yet. It's also way out in clown land, which by itself should make you pause. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Ok Scott, I won't worry too much about it.  I am fascinated with the GSNW index.  I had no idea one was created.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

EURO leads to an OES event towards the end of its run, something to watch.

[CoastalWx]

That's all Ray.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

The December 5th system gives me some hope because it is very cold during that three day period from the 4th through the 6th of December on the models.  Also it is a piece of the polar vortex.

[MJO812]

GFS looks great in the long range. Overrunning pattern with the -EPO.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Man we are close on the 4-6th of December to catching the mother load.  This isn't hyping up anything, this is the potential.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

You have reached the no hype zone

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin and threads going downhill are synonymous. 

Hey you love the pattern . To get you excited is about winter patterns is like Ray getting a chance to use his first Jim hat on prom night. It's coming.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Kevin, I think our chance at snow comes along December 4-6th, problem remains we can't get two disturbances to phase, we need one to amplify with the flow.

[weathafella]

30 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Man we are close on the 4-6th of December to catching the mother load.  This isn't hyping up anything, this is the potential.

You coockoo.   Per GEFS, the motherlode is like 2500 miles northwest of us those dates.   Just because you have a new post for every bit of nonsense  doesn't make it any more correct.  Enough!

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hey you love the pattern . To get you excited is about winter patterns is like Ray getting a chance to use his first Jim hat on prom night. It's coming.

I said it could be decent. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I'm not talking about the motherload of cold air Jerry, I am talking about storm potential, any time you have a polar vortex lobe of energy running around the parent vortex, it will only take a step forward for a storm to form, given we are about 7 days away, 150 mile correction westward will bring us a snowstorm with 850mb temps running around -6 to -12C.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Actually EURO is closer to a storm solution than the GFS is as of the 12z runs.  Also that energy closes off before entering the US.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I said it could be decent. 

Better than any Dec in many years was the phraseology. Your excitement and hyped up excites me.

[dryslot]

Jesus H

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Those SSTs are gonna light a liquid match over the Cape for awhile.

Furnace

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Hey James-your snow climo is akin to Montalk Point, not Caribou.

Reality hammer

[CoastalWx]

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Better than any Dec in many years was the phraseology. Your excitement and hyped up excites me.

I also said its not saying much given how terrible the last several Decembers have been. People need to stop twisting words and throwing around weenie crap because its confusing to those who are looking for good weather talk. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I wouldn't be surprised if this cutter for Thursday becomes colder in reality as we get closer to the event.  That secondary could be much further south than we are thinking right now.

[ORH_wxman]

Enough about the Gulf Stream and Dec 5th in this thread. Keep it to the pattern...if you are going to mention specific dates, then you better have something to back it up outside of clown range GFS model run. This is not what that thread is for. We have the banter thread for that kind of stuff. 

I'm going to start deleting posts that are not really relevant to this thread. This isn't preseason anymore. 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Anyways, I would reserve excitement on the 5th deal. Some signs it could be forced well south as a minor event. Don't weenie out yet. It's also way out in clown land, which by itself should make you pause. 

Heh ... I am late to this conversation but if were me, I would reserve "excitement" of winter, period, until further notice.

From what I am looking at the pattern could not be more winter-f-ed up for E of ~ 100 W unless it was June. That SE ridge is a mammoth construct. It is, at times, there because the hemispheric system of atmospheric modes must by physics, require it be there - else, duh, it wouldn't be.  Other times, the pattern might "seem" to be modulating its dismantling, only to prove compression while in wait to re-emerge.  But, pertinent to course: that means that winter (as far as what it traditionally means in the imaginations and hearts of the beleaguered, watery eyed pathos user) is going to continue being an equally mammoth disappointment; so long as the SE ridge continues to do so, both in verification and in modeling. 

Oh, we can imagine (within the bounds of plausibility) different scenarios in which we can eek out some sleet, a brief burst of snow, and/or a valley stubborn hour or two of freezing rain .. here and there (thanks in no small part to our 42andchange latitude) but, somehow I don't think that's what the average American.New England sub-forum, therapy seeking malcontent really had in mind. Sorry, I tend to call a spade a spade, and not play mind-games with unsavory realities.

And, I don't mean to come off holier than thou - believe me: I am one of them!  You know - frankly, I'm not even that interested much in winter scenery beyond ..oh, January 30th of any given year. Already,..the intensifying daily solar assault on the ole visual cortex is triggering unconscious sentiments of summer times. I hold out, though, ...until ~ March 10th; at which point in time I'm just become bitter until I see the first crispy towering cumulonimbus.  Not that anyone asked but Spring is a season I kinda loathe actually - mainly because it's just a Popsicle headache getting the atmosphere to finally admit winter is over. It's a funny time of year for the "weather social-media hobbyists," because that tactical mind-game analysis people ply to protect their not having to admit that if winter had sex parts they'd make love to it, ..to protect and cherish until death do they part. Like, people really seem to at times take solace in the notion that when warm air fails this or that penetration ( isn't 'coming in yet') winter still lives? I think Psychology refers to that as the third stage of death acceptance?

Reality check: You're not snowing, people! You're just ruining green-up. 

For me, my completely unrealistic expectation is to have winter roll from November 10th or so through December 30th, with a few bonus rounds in January to put some stank on it! ..Haha.  that's only happened once in my tenor on this planet: 1995... So we dream -

I digress...  Anyway, the "Lakes cutter" out there in the mid range does feature some "possible" front end concern, but that's the rub under the cruel rule of the dreaded SE despotic overlord; we are left to claw and scrape like winter dogs sniffing orts under the warm feast above. Case in point, the 00z Euro shows one of the more fantastic tuck-patterns I've seen depicted on/for a day-4 (heh, we win!). Probably more likely just an out-and-out back-door penetration.  Either way, the region sheds some 20 F or more passing Tuesday into Wednesday as new cold tides in from eastern Ontario to reinforce the belated warm front. Actually, now that I look closer ... the boundary slides back down the coast clear to the Del Marva, with the 0 C 850mb isotherm to southern NH? Yeah.  That's a BD. I gotta go ahead and imagine that's back-loaded with sub-freezing DP air there, and combined with high pressure that is greater NORTH of the 42nd parallel... folks living on or near that latitude here in southern New England will fail to see the warm front come through.

But hey, at least it's not coming through, eh? 

In all seriousness, I do think that situation is at least worth of monitoring (still).  Even though the overall tenor of the 00z guidance complexion did, if anything, amplified the SE ridge even to even more unsettling fear for the rest of winter, ..there is still that pesky 1030-ish MB high moving through eastern Ontario late Tuesday into Wednesday.  Also of import for me, the products that give us the present hemisphere land-based snow are showing that points N and W of here have finally become snow covered. That is actually a small, but important positive feed-back for low level cold air... The lowest critical thickness' may have left over N draining air despite the pressure pattern...  'Course, that could all be true and end up 32.2 .. gotta start somewhere.  

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

gotta take off the eggnog goggles and see it for what it is, a midwest to nne start. sne to the waters will have to reserve excitement and get to the back of the line.

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, Snow88 said:

GFS looks great in the long range. Overrunning pattern with the -EPO.

Here we go again with you hyping the 384 hour operational GFS. Ugh...

[moneypitmike]

I'm accepting of rain--at least that provides something noteworthy while we wait for something white.    Hopefully, the wait won't be too long.

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm accepting of rain--at least that provides something noteworthy while we wait for something white.    Hopefully, the wait won't be too long.

I here ya!

..I like writing?  The process of thought to pen, descriptive prose, ..reasons to vent, devil's advocate, cool sounding words...creativity - all of it.  Part of that is pointing out, as objectively a I can, the crank psycho-babble that goes on in the din of a public sounding device.

But that's often misconstrued as lofty sentiment. No - that doesn't put me above anyone that likes the weather, and likes winter weather at that.  I feel the burden just as well as the next dude that wishes at times that 'the weather' was an actual person we could punch in the face for being a f'ing douche bag. 

But humor aside, I do think that system that's pretty obviously destined to cut west toward the Lakes later this week, is not a clear warm penetration for N of NYC.  Not even close.  That arm of high pressure into N Maine is bulging the pressure contours clearly into a CAD structure that only intensifies from Tuesday into Wednesday (as I discussed in the diatribe above).  And, it's doing so over a snow pack up there, which will conditionally in the least maintain so of the 'freshness' of the polar nature of that air mass... Once that boundary approaches from the S and slams into thicker CAD wall it's only going to get the ageostrophic wind component angry in that sort of configuration.  I could almost see 33 F with smoke stack smoke having trouble getting above the tree line..

It may not mean winter weather per se... but it DEFINITELY means no warm front.  Sorry. Not happening. And, so long as that is the case, we can bide time through the next 72 hours and start sampling what the air mass will really be like out there in time. I can imagine a lot of ice-storms of lore starting out this way with global models 'denting' pressure patterns as a partial nod to lower level inhibition they struggle with due to native resolution smearing that happens in the lowest layer of the grids.  No...I'm not saying an ice storm is coming, just that the models are clear at least detecting resistance to placing that warm front N as they should - if perhaps more a reflection of better resolution compared to said scenarios in the past.

Also, the primary low is not going to go much N of Lake Superior. It can't... it has to stall there, and then combined with that high as said... the dividends of 42 N begins to cash in a I think. It's about the only way to pick this early winter up after an early knock down.  ha, you know - it's not even winter even by Meteorologic parlance; that doesn't start for four days anyway. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Here we go again with you hyping the 384 hour operational GFS. Ugh...

Pot meet kettle

Calling for another warm winter?

[weathafella]

It appears to me that the troughs axes (multiple) with each s/w gradually moves east so in the longer range (beyond d5) guidance has it more favorably oriented for snow chances.   I am thinking most of us in sne need to wait until we're beyond 12/8-10 and maybe even a week longer but it's coming.

[Damage In Tolland]

Lot of consternation and Angst over a bad GEFS run when EPS gets winter rolling DEc 4-5 and beyond 

[weathafella]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lot of consternation and Angst over a bad GEFS run when EPS gets winter rolling DEc 4-5 and beyond 

I thought the GEFS run was fine.   And not a lot of difference from eps.