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December pattern/forecast thread

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:


I guess at 44 I'm still bothered by weather disappointments. Must be a late bloomer.

lol I'm 48..4 years from now you'll mature.  

I think we all get bothered by the weather when it disappoints, but letting it ruin your day or week etc is crazy when you really think about it.

Am I irritated if we miss out on a big winter weather event, sure I am.  But I find it passes very quickly now. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I hate when there's no snow for the holidays too. So I get that part. Can't complain too much tho this December and having a nice event like Saturday pretty close to Christmas is always fun. There's still some snow pack over the interior north of ORH (dividing line is literally over the city) and there may be some mood snow tomorrow. Hopefully it trends a little further south to get more people in on it. 

 

But back to on topic in here...I don't see a whole lot of reason to fret in New England. Maybe on the south coast it's kind of annoying in this pattern. The gradient pattern will continue it looks like and we'll likely have chances...hopefully a couple of these systems over the next 15 days manages to squeeze south of us as a redeveloper. Cutters will be a possibility but in this pattern...no guts, no glory. Gonna have to play with fire....and when you play with fire, every now and then you are gonna get burned. (Or get cuttered in our case)

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

lol I'm 48..4 years from now you'll mature.  

I think we all get bothered by the weather when it disappoints, but letting it ruin your day or week etc is crazy when you really think about it.

Am I irritated if we miss out on a big winter weather event, sure I am.  But I find it passes very quickly now. 

no, jan 2015 haunts me...the cold black cloud follows me around and sleeps under my bed from Nov to Apr, mocking my every move. 

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leo1000

leo1000

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I hate when there's no snow for the holidays too. So I get that part. Can't complain too much tho this December and having a nice event like Saturday pretty close to Christmas is always fun. There's still some snow pack over the interior north of ORH (dividing line is literally over the city) and there may be some mood snow tomorrow. Hopefully it trends a little further south to get more people in on it. 

 

But back to on topic in here...I don't see a whole lot of reason to fret in New England. Maybe on the south coast it's kind of annoying in this pattern. The gradient pattern will continue it looks like and we'll likely have chances...hopefully a couple of these systems over the next 15 days manages to squeeze south of us as a redeveloper. Cutters will be a possibility but in this pattern...no guts, no glory. Gonna have to play with fire....and when you play with fire, every now and then you are gonna get burned. (Or get cuttered in our case)

Unless we can pop a -NAO blocking pattern that the GEFS and EPS ensembles are suggesting in the long range. Plus you got the -EPO ridge showing up. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

Unless we can pop a -NAO blocking pattern that the GEFS and EPS ensembles are suggesting in the long range. Plus you got the -EPO ridge showing up. 

I'm not seeing any sign of a -NAO block on the ensembles. The occasional OP run may show it in clown range but I would ignore it unless you start seeing it on ensembles and inside of ten days. 

We're gonna have to likely try and deal with events without the benefit of good PNA ridging and without a -NAO...thankfully the EPO ridging will keep the cold source fresh so it will keep us in the game at our latitude. 

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leo1000

leo1000

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not seeing any sign of a -NAO block on the ensembles. The occasional OP run may show it in clown range but I would ignore it unless you start seeing it on ensembles and inside of ten days. 

We're gonna have to likely try and deal with events without the benefit of good PNA ridging and without a -NAO. 

Oh, I saw this post on twitter. Thought their might of been some merit to it. 

 

If this blocking starting to develop, a lot of happy snow lovers will be ringing in the New Year for an active January.

C0OPf14VEAAVXMV.jpg
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I think that is the OP run from today. So I wouldn't get invested in that solution that far out on an OP run. 

 

I mean it's true that "if blocking starts to develop" there then it would really be a lot more favorable...esp further south...but that is a big if. As of now, I'm not expecting it. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think that is the OP run from today. So I wouldn't get invested in that solution that far out on an OP run. 

 

I mean it's true that "if blocking starts to develop" there then it would really be a lot more favorable...esp further south...but that is a big if. As of now, I'm not expecting it. 

Read my post in the banter thread!

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think that is the OP run from today. So I wouldn't get invested in that solution that far out on an OP run. 

 

I mean it's true that "if blocking starts to develop" there then it would really be a lot more favorable...esp further south...but that is a big if. As of now, I'm not expecting it. 

but what holds the block in? last couple years theres been transient blocks that did the trick but curious what mechanism is needed to hold it in place.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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Posted
1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you hope for white Hanukkah or does it not matter?

I route for a white everyday but realistically many of the great winters have bare holidays and few allow that to mar them.  I'd rather have it white but if not I have a trove of movies to see and places to go.  Snow or no.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

but what holds the block in? last couple years theres been transient blocks that did the trick but curious what mechanism is needed to hold it in place.

You typically want to weaken the stratospheric polar vortex to allow blocks to hold in place...otherwise they tend to get overwhelmed fairly quickly by the raging westerlies and reorganization of the vortex at the tropospheric level. This is why there's a lot of interest in SSWs and looking at the stratosphere. Big blocking years tend to have major weakenings, displacements, or splits in the stratospheric vortex. 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Looking like we'll wait until the new year for any real winter threats. Not ruling out a rogue one but the prospects look bleak. I'm sure there will be a mass sale of toasters on Boxing Day after a couple of cutters and green grass showing.

Because there have been so many cutters this year?  Have we had one?  The boxing Day storm isn't a cutter when the primary goes over MN.  Up here the stout high to our north holds and keeps the torch at bay.  then another storm approaches...

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Because there have been so many cutters this year?  Have we had one?  The boxing Day storm isn't a cutter when the primary goes over MN.  Up here the stout high to our north holds and keeps the torch at bay.  then another storm approaches...

Of all the cutters that were modeled 6-10 days out...one really verified...at least down here. I do think the 27th will be toasty here, after some ice inland. 

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Hazey

Hazey

Posted
Posted
exactly.  they trend weaker and souther.  our torch so far was the change to fr rain ana briefly rain a few days ago, and an icy torch on the 27th?  lol


You're closer to the arctic circle so might work out for you. My thoughts were more geared toward us folks at the tropical latitude..lol. And I was referring to the future 7days ahead not the past 4weeks.
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I appreciate the will to find the upside on matters but ... in reality, for winter enthusiasts this pattern couldn't be worse.  I'm willing to inject some realism into matters...

And, I further that there's a broader systemic problem going on with the state of the environment as a whole ... not that anyone asked ... It has to do with unusually high heights in the southern latitudes. I've said this a hundred times since October - but I don't see much evidence folks anywhere want to acknowledging this is going on...

Moreover, I'm hunching that it wouldn't even matter if the teleconnectors went -EPO/+PNA ...or -NAO or whatever; if all that is riding over the top of a subtropical band (that really extends around the girdle of the n. hemisphere) that is above normal geopotential medium, that's not good. 

Until those heights come down even a rough 6 dm everywhere, there's going to be too much resulting gradient and balance geostrophic flows that are too high for much more than wind whipped affairs.  There are physical/mathematical reasons why too much gradient imposes limitations on bigger events, reasons perhaps too complex to describe in this medium, but in an easier (perhaps) way to describe:  think about it in parlance of time alone; it takes time for bigger storm system to evolve and translate through a give region - the flow is so fast everywhere, that immediately precludes systems having the time to do so...

It appears that the -EPO presently modeled is only going to positively enhance that gradient further... resulting in a screaming planetary rage that continues to make any event more dicey to happen if at all.  I guess we can take some solace as storm enthusiasts in the notion that dicey doesn't mean 0 chance...

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I appreciate the will to find the upside on matters but ... in reality, for winter enthusiasts this pattern couldn't be worse.  I'm willing to inject some realism into matters...

And, I further that there's a broader systemic problem going on with the state of the environment as a whole ... not that anyone asked ... It has to do with unusually high heights in the southern latitudes. I've said this a hundred times since October - but I don't see much evidence folks anywhere want to acknowledging this is going on...

Moreover, I'm hunching that it wouldn't even matter if the teleconnectors went -EPO/+PNA ...or -NAO or whatever; if all that is riding over the top of a subtropical band (that really extends around the girdle of the n. hemisphere) that is above normal geopotential medium, that's not good. 

Until those heights come down even a rough 6 dm everywhere, there's going to be too much resulting gradient and balance geostrophic flows that are too high for much more than wind whipped affairs.  There are physical/mathematical reasons why too much gradient imposes limitations on bigger events, reasons perhaps too complex to describe in this medium, but in an easier (perhaps) way to describe:  think about it in parlance of time alone; it takes time for bigger storm system to evolve and translate through a give region - the flow is so fast everywhere, that immediately precludes systems having the time to do so...

It appears that the -EPO presently modeled is only going to positively enhance that gradient further... resulting in a screaming planetary rage that continues to make any event more dicey to happen if at all.  I guess we can take some solace as storm enthusiasts in the notion that dicey doesn't mean 0 chance...

It's like the GFS saw this post and gave a 2 -day rainstorm to start the new year. 

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