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December pattern/forecast thread


weathafella

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7 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said:

Because of warmth or lack of storms?

This is a stormy pattern and while it looks above normal after mid to late next week, a well timed event could still delight.  It's not a full blown 2001/02-2011/12.  2005-06 may be a better analogy for the upcoming period.

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This is a stormy pattern and while it looks above normal after mid to late next week, a well timed event could still delight.  It's not a full blown 2001/02-2011/12.  2005-06 may be a better analogy for the upcoming period.

That's what Will and I said yesterday. This isn't like those horrific years. Just a hostile look for snow and consistent cold.  But it will get ugly at times. Maybe next week or perhaps near Christmas we sneak a miracle in.

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i don't know .. i'm toying with the notion of uniqueness going on everywhere, like at a hemispheric scope.  i'm seeing it in actual measured form, too.  it's something i've never seen before and there's no analog for it really, either. 

the flow below 35 N is just stuck in summer.  you can 'kind of' see that with products like this ... 

   http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html

...where the geometric heights of the atmosphere are anomalously high just about every S of the ~ 35th parallel. meanwhile, the counterbalancing negative regions are not sufficiently 'counterbalancing' - it's biasing the whole of the thing on the hot side. But more importantly, the normal seasonal migration south of cooling heights associated with late Autumn and early winter is butting up against it.  one result of that is this screaming high velocity flow ... see, all this is observational in nature.  i have not seen any office or 'official' /refereed/presumed source give mention to it, so it may just be in my head. 

but it doesn't look right -sorry.  you can't have 9 to 12 iso-heights packed in everywhere and expect as much s/w mechanical forcing - that's another result of that gradient.  

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41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i don't know .. i'm toying with the notion of uniqueness going on everywhere, like at a hemispheric scope.  i'm seeing it in actual measured form, too.  it's something i've never seen before and there's no analog for it really, either. 

the flow below 35 N is just stuck in summer.  you can 'kind of' see that with products like this ... 

   http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html

...where the geometric heights of the atmosphere are anomalously high just about every S of the ~ 35th parallel. meanwhile, the counterbalancing negative regions are not sufficiently 'counterbalancing' - it's biasing the whole of the thing on the hot side. But more importantly, the normal seasonal migration south of cooling heights associated with late Autumn and early winter is butting up against it.  one result of that is this screaming high velocity flow ... see, all this is observational in nature.  i have not seen any office or 'official' /refereed/presumed source give mention to it, so it may just be in my head. 

but it doesn't look right -sorry.  you can't have 9 to 12 iso-heights packed in everywhere and expect as much s/w mechanical forcing - that's another result of that gradient.  

Maybe evidence of a larger scale climatic change. Aren't there theories out there saying there have been sudden and drastic changes (warmer or colder) in climate during the past hundred thousand years? Could it be a sign that this is happening now?

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