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December pattern/forecast thread


weathafella

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Steve posted the temps on the EPS for Liltchfield through Xmas and it didn't look bad at all, perhaps slightly AN for a couple days.  I guess we shall see, but we have solid snowcover in a lot of places north of Rt 2 and up to here, we have several more artic blasts coming in the next 7-10 days, squalls, etc....then a storm which will be to our west but coming just after an artic blast, so we probably net frozen and solidify the pack.  Then it warms a bit.  But truly a torch?  Doesn't seem the pattern has shown those kind of extreme changes so far this year.  Am I missing something?  It probably looks different in coastal SNE than up here I suppose.

Also I go to Chicago on Thursday just in time for below zero temps and maybe a snow storm Fri-Sat so that has me kinda excited.

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32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There is one poster here who wants brown grass for Xmas. Him

As long as my Chanukah, and Kwanzaa have snow, or some kind of frozen within the periods I am good.  

...Although I think the Grinch storm during the Christmas time period will be strong as it is most of the time.

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He may be right ...  

We'll have to see how deterministic guidance versions either fights the signal, or...begin to waver in favor of it, but as far as the GEFs -derived teleconnectors go, winter ends after this week's cold snap until further notice...

Now, obviously it would be cave-man incompetent to think that characterizes the whole winter, the rest of the way - as in, 4 months worth. But, as far as the here-and-now goes, there are 0, zip, zilch, naddo, no teleconnectors going any direction accept warm for the next 10 days...possibly, beyond.

I could almost see the flow going flattish for a couple of days just prior to the SE ridge finally at last bloating to engulf enough real-estate to dictate our junk here too - not merely threatening to do so like it has been in recent weeks.  The recent -EPO is really all that's been pounding that down and getting us cold at all ...but remove that factor, blocking in the Alaskan sector, I'm not sure I see a way to prevent it frankly ... when the NAO is gong positive and the PNA appears permanently in the cellar.

But, there's always a chance that as soon as I click 'Submit' on this beast, everything flips on purpose -  

 

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

He may be right ...  

We'll have to see how deterministic guidance versions either fights the signal, or...begin to waver in favor of it, but as far as the GEFs -derived teleconnectors go, winter ends after this week's cold snap until further notice...

Now, obviously it would be cave-man incompetent to think that characterizes the whole winter, the rest of the way - as in, 4 months worth. But, as far as the here-and-now goes, there are 0, zip, zilch, naddo, no teleconnectors going any direction accept warm for the next 10 days...possibly, beyond.

I could almost see the flow going flattish for a couple of days just prior to the SE ridge finally at last bloating to engulf enough real-estate to dictate our junk here too - not merely threatening to do so like it has been in recent weeks.  The recent -EPO is really all that's been pounding that down and getting us cold at all ...but remove that factor, blocking in the Alaskan sector, I'm not sure I see a way to prevent it frankly ... when the NAO is gong positive and the PNA appears permanently in the cellar.

But, there's always a chance that as soon as I click 'Submit' on this beast, everything flips on purpose -  

 

[kevin]Thanks. After this assessment of the future of winter 2016/2017, I am heading down to the basement and closing the shades (after I finish scraping the few inches of slop off of my driveway). Someone please come wake me in October of 2017.  Thanks.[/kevin]

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

 Word!  part and parcel in what I was just posting about above...  agreed- 

if it offers any consolation ... it is still just a fluid enterprise, the atmosphere, so ... there is never 0 probability of anything.   May not be much, but it's something :)

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1 hour ago, Googlymoogly said:

How mild does it look? Amazing how quick this all happens.

 

could be in a state of mass delusion - heh.   

I just mean, it looks very mild if not warm, but, it's also not a certainty, either. 

There are reasons not to sell the farm on that thinking just yet- 

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