December pattern/forecast thread

[Damage In Tolland]

Is there anyway things can change for the last 2 weeks of the month,  or is a 2015 type look inevitable?

[WinterWolf]

59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is there anyway things can change for the last 2 weeks of the month,  or is a 2015 type look inevitable?

Didn't you just post yesterday saying there wouldn't be any warm up?

[EastonSN+]

Very disappointing look for the LR as well as the current cold then rain pattern. If we are in a cold rain pattern then might be beat to shake up the pattern for a few weeks even if a torch. Pehaps the pattern will change back in the later winter months to a snowier look.

[Googlymoogly]

Curious on how torchy we're talking?

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Very disappointing look for the LR as well as the current cold then rain pattern. If we are in a cold rain pattern then might be beat to shake up the pattern for a few weeks even if a torch. Pehaps the pattern will change back in the later winter months to a snowier look.

Lol.  It's over… It's all over!!!It's over… It's all over!!!

[Hazey]

The GFS has a festive miracle on the 12z run. Keep hope alive.

[Allsnow]

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Ryan HanrahanVerified account‏@ryanhanrahan

If you don't like the cold... it's going to be a rough week or so. But we're seeing signs of a big pattern flip to warm after day 10. #nbcct

[Isotherm]

At this point, I'm very glad I went the way I did for the winter outlook. I had 2011-12 as a near tertiary analog, and frankly, this pattern looks almost as bad as it can get in the longer term. The coast from NYC southward may go snowless in December.

[EastonSN+]

35 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Lol.  It's over… It's all over!!!It's over… It's all over!!!

Correct. However we still have through March so u never know.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I had 2011-12 included, too...as well as 2001-02.

Held most snow off until January on the cp...but we'll see what happens.

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

At this point, I'm very glad I went the way I did for the winter outlook. I had 2011-12 as a near tertiary analog, and frankly, this pattern looks almost as bad as it can get in the longer term. The coast from NYC southward may go snowless in December.

Wow!! That's a buzz kill for sure.  I'm not in NYC, actually live 2hours northeast in SNE, but 2011-2012 was the worst.  No offense, but I hope you are way wrong for up here!

[RedSky]

But DT said the second half of December was going to rock what happened aleet aleet!

 

[WinterWolf]

Ensembles in long range are very volatile lately...hopefully this warm up/pattern flip gets muted going forward somewhat.

[CoastalWx]

The pattern on the guidance is pretty bad. That was a surprise for me. I did not expect such a collapse and I'm a little unsure why. Normal relaxations can happen..but that was a pretty fast collapse as the PAC jet really fired up.  The GEFS had a bit of a correction to slightly better. I'm hoping it's more of a Feb 2015 relaxation that had most of 40N on south baking while we stayed cold. Some signs it may be a battle ground, but right now...I'm not a fan of the 11-15 day on the euro ensemble.

[weathafella]

It did look a tad better today on GEFS and to a lesser extent CMC ensembles with the ridge building a bit in the high Arctic on our side of the nhem.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Scott what is the EURO showing for Thursday through Friday for Cape and Islands?  The 24 hour increments don't do it justice but I think a piece of the PV lobe dives southeastward to the waters east of CHH and gives us snow?  However, ocean storm is too far southeast, EURO is having a hard time with the progressive flow.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Scott what is the EURO showing for Thursday through Friday for Cape and Islands?  The 24 hour increments don't do it justice but I think a piece of the PV lobe dives southeastward to the waters east of CHH and gives us snow?  However, ocean storm is too far southeast, EURO is having a hard time with the progressive flow.

Nothing big but suggests a bit of snow in eastern areas with ivt possible enehancement late.   If it's not better tomorrow's go back to the mantra.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Scott what is the EURO showing for Thursday through Friday for Cape and Islands?  The 24 hour increments don't do it justice but I think a piece of the PV lobe dives southeastward to the waters east of CHH and gives us snow?  However, ocean storm is too far southeast, EURO is having a hard time with the progressive flow.

Looked like some chance of OES on outer Cape again in typical spots from PVC to Welfleet. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

with the EURO winds it looks like northerly winds and 850mb temps near -20C with delta ts near +32C which equals extreme, extreme, extreme instability

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It did look a tad better today on GEFS and to a lesser extent CMC ensembles with the ridge building a bit in the high Arctic on our side of the nhem.

It did. I hope the bleeding stopped...I was pretty frustrated with the EPS look.

[Damage In Tolland]

So I've been at kids hoops all day and trying to catch up..is the mid week threat back on the table for SNE.. as far as light snow accum?

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So I've been at kids hoops all day and trying to catch up..is the mid week threat back on the table for SNE.. as far as light snow accum?

Maybe 

[Hazey]

The models have been really struggling both short and long term. I wouldn't sweat pattern breakdowns three weeks from now.

[Isotherm]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow!! That's a buzz kill for sure.  I'm not in NYC, actually live 2hours northeast in SNE, but 2011-2012 was the worst.  No offense, but I hope you are way wrong for up here!

 

Just to be clear, I still stand by my forecast of near normal snowfall for the winter overall for your area / SNE, even though the near-medium terms looks bad. I'm much more pessimistic further south. I think there will be opportunities with transient blocking as we move deeper into the winter. But the NAO/AO are unfavorable in the means. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh, so long as the EPO remains negative ... I'd be willing to gamble that the distribution of temperature anomalies is not entirely controlled by the -PNAP/SE anomaly though. Those EPS spreads look pretty clearly like they're removing ANY EPO heights ... Not impossible, no ...but, my experience is that's just as likely an error up there.   

I've heard 'pattern similarities' bandied about comparing this to 2015.

Funny...I was thinking yesterday and again this morning, that December of 2014 bears some similar behavior (obviously, not exactly..) actually.  We kept getting these 24 to 36-hour quick hitting deep cold pops that Dec, where the high associated moved off and the return flow flipped the temps hugely around ... just in time for the next rain and milder air.  The phenomenon timed, seemingly on purpose, just perfectly to ruin the coveted white Xmas.

But, all the while, the pattern was proverbially playing with fire.  I remember even posting that it was - as usual... "Jenius" gathered no notice when the bomb went off 30 days later...  Seriously, I really believe the only difference between Dec in to early Jan -vs- late Jan through Feb from late 2014 into early 2015, was that instead of being out of timing/sync, the cold air and supporting n-stream mechanics became IN sync with disturbances. 

Having said that ...no, we're not doing to bad with this present one... tho, we do have problems notwithstanding. 

The thing with -PNA... it doesn't necessarily have to mean -PNAP.  It's just that in recent weeks and for the foreseeable future, it seems that the ballast of the -PNA this time was/is over the North American region of the PNA's total domain space. interesting...  In any event, the -EPO is dropping whopper early season cold plumes bodily into Canada just fine and usual, but the counter/imposing signal beneath is really causing extremeness in gradient.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

with the EURO winds it looks like northerly winds and 850mb temps near -20C with delta ts near +32C which equals extreme, extreme, extreme instability

You may need a broom, not a shovel.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh, so long as the EPO remains negative ... I'd be willing to gamble that the distribution of temperature anomalies is not entirely controlled by the -PNAP/SE anomaly though. Those EPS spreads look pretty clearly like they're removing ANY EPO heights ... Not impossible, no ...but, my experience is that's just as likely an error up there.   

I've heard 'pattern similarities' bandied about comparing this to 2015.

Funny...I was thinking yesterday and again this morning, that December of 2014 bears some similar behavior (obviously, not exactly..) actually.  We kept getting these 24 to 36-hour quick hitting deep cold pops that Dec, where the high associated moved off and the return flow flipped the temps hugely around ... just in time for the next rain and milder air.  The phenomenon timed, seemingly on purpose, just perfectly to ruin the coveted white Xmas.

But, all the while, the pattern was proverbially playing with fire.  I remember even posting that it was - as usual... "Jenius" gathered no notice when the bomb went off 30 days later...  Seriously, I really believe the only difference between Dec in to early Jan -vs- late Jan through Feb that from late 2014 into early 2015, was that instead of being out of timing/sync, the cold air and supporting n-stream mechanics became IN sync with disturbances. 

Having said that ...no, we're not doing to bad with this present one... those, we do have problems notwithstanding. 

The thing with -PNA... it doesn't necessarily have to mean -PNAP.  It's just that in recent weeks and for the foreseeable future, it seems that the ballast of the -PNA this time was/is over the North American region of the PNA's total domain space. interesting...  In any event, the -EPO is dropping whopper early season cold plumes bodily into Canada just fine and usual, but the counter/imposing signal beneath is really causing extremeness in gradient.  

I don't buy the end of the world runs today........but wouldn't expect 12/08, either.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't buy the end of the world runs today........but wouldn't expect 12/08, either.

 

Dec 08 was a December similar to this one ...with on all important difference: the cold plumes/associated high domes timed perfectly like ...always.  Front waller after another... boom boom boom.  Best Dec totals I ever lived through...

Yeah, don't know - I posted that before I saw the means ...like, all of them bail now.  Wow.   Still, I suppose such a continuity break might be a red flag - perhaps we'll wait several cycles before whatever. 

Someone in some thread was bitching the other day about the ensembles seemingly parroting the operational runs - the context was like why bother having them then?  Maybe if there's some truth to all that, they could all break continuity like all at once if that's true so perhaps this is all just a manifestation of bad data completely bringing the entire system of members down .. because they are stupidly based upon the same control physics.  Frankly, if it's true though that really flies in the face of conventional education on what/why the ensembles even exist.  They are there as "perturbed" versions of the operational - was the way we learned - where by perturbed, variant working and/or experimentally parameterizations could be applied...etc...etc. If they are narrowing the band width it does sort of torpedo the purpose of all that.  'Course, ...maybe they've just weeded out all the bad version and are being left with a narrow experimental set..  who knows.

Anyway, to re-iterate, if the EPO is no longer negative, ...I don't see any reason not to go warm - if perhaps to be fair, too. 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Again....I am speaking in terms of monthly snowfall totals....not synoptic layout.

We aren't getting 2008 snow totals this month is what I mean

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

GFS dumps 20" of snow to the east of CHH over the ocean, if we can get a northerly wind direction, we get 20" of fluffy 20:1 ratio snows.