CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 13 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said: Point taken! There's something so defined about OP runs as opposed to the more esoteric, nebulous ensembles that are appealing for laymen like myself. But I hear what you're saying.! Sorry, I meant looking not lolling. Stupid phone. The op runs are like crack and get you addicted with tasty solutions that likely will not play out as you see. All they do is cause angst to weenies. It's best really not to take them that seriously beyond 7 days out. I mean sometimes they can play out as you see, but really need to be taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Jerry would like the top analog on GGEM ensembles for D8....12/21/70...right before a back to back snow blitz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 we may have to contend with four or five of these like each one reduxing the previoius ...right through the end of the month. maybe every three day periodicity. high gradient fast flow smear jobs with weak to mid grade cyclones ...each successive one threatening to move west or too far S - all the while separating -1 or -2 SD cold from +1 or +2 warmth. we'll have 12 hour intervals like gleeful yesterday ...followed by 12 hours of heh, coming from modeling tone ... and reality verifies (usually) somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 It would appear the Labrador Current is really cooling off the water northeast of Cape Cod in the Gulf of Maine, as it is getting colder, these colder temps will act to lower the overall SSTs in this region which will favor a colder regime come January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 GFS says we will have a White Christmas with three snowstorms in the next 7-13 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 GFS says we will have a White Christmas with three snowstorms in the next 7-13 days.You're reaching bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 How am I reaching, the GFS shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: How am I reaching, the GFS shows it. Not a whole lot of merit in looking this far out, but +10C 850s don't exactly scream "white Christmas" to most people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 How am I reaching, the GFS shows it.You have to start looking at the bigger picture and stop believing a single model run and preaching like it's gospel. The snow weenie goggle you proudly wear are obscuring your vision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 So...looks like a torchy period is coming after all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 34 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said: So...looks like a torchy period is coming after all? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What? grinchiness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said: grinchiness What did Scooter tell you about op runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I am seeing 2 rainstorms on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I am seeing 2 rainstorms on the GFS... Well, that's what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I know its whining but it looks like a shut out on most guidance for the coast for the entire run on all models. Make it 3 Decembers in a row. Do the weeklies and monthlies look good for Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 7 hours ago, weathafella said: Pretty solid signal for torchy period d8-10 with cutter imbedded. 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea....that bomb is an Archembault event.......easts up the PV and rips into the NAO domain....the e US is one giant se ridge. Moral of the story is that we will find a way to avoid a white Christmas.. 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully the torch period passes by Christmas... 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What did Scooter tell you about op runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Tough to say. Even in favorable patterns you can still get cutters. We've said that all along, and a -EPO type deal is prone to cutters. I wouldn't really go all out torch and pattern reversal as some seem to fear. We'll have remnant -EPO and ridging into NE Greenland while SE ridge flexes. We ride the line. Patterns ebb and flow, so we shouldn't be surprised at any relaxation if it occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 33 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said: Ray was basing that on a GFS op run. I wish people would just stop looking at them and using them to make forecasts. For exactly this reason . Look how bad it's been in the storm tomorrow night. It's been a train wreck with a stem wound cutter not recognizing until last night the strength of the high and that the cold would win .. and it's still correcting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I know its whining but it looks like a shut out on most guidance for the coast for the entire run on all models. Make it 3 Decembers in a row. Do the weeklies and monthlies look good for Jan? lol. maybe next winter will be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ray was basing that on a GFS op run. I wish people would just stop looking at them and using them to make forecasts. For exactly this reason not trying to rustle any jimmies! I actually post my fears so that I can hear professional insight on the validity of them, so that in the future I can diagnose without posting for help. Sorry if perturbing, I understand that for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Tough to say. Even in favorable patterns you can still get cutters. We've said that all along, and a -EPO type deal is prone to cutters. I wouldn't really go all out torch and pattern reversal as some seem to fear. We'll have remnant -EPO and ridging into NE Greenland while SE ridge flexes. We ride the line. Patterns ebb and flow, so we shouldn't be surprised at any relaxation if it occurs. Anyone else get the feeling an ice storm seems likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Anyone else get the feeling an ice storm seems likely We Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: lol. maybe next winter will be better. Can someone tell me what the yearlies say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Can someone tell me what the yearlies say. Some of models have BOS having the same winters as DCA by 2040. I'm a little skeptical. But if you believe them you throw in the towel until you move to CAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 EPS says we mild up around und 12/23-25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS says we mild up around und 12/23-25. They've been insistent on relaxing the pattern after the 20th or so. We'll see..I'm a little skeptical, although it's not surprising to get these periods of relaxation from time to time. Of course you could play the odds of a Pre-Christmas warm up and do well! Hopefully it's not a massive SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: They've been insistent on relaxing the pattern after the 20th or so. We'll see..I'm a little skeptical, although it's not surprising to get these periods of relaxation from time to time. Of course you could play the odds of a Pre-Christmas warm up and do well! Hopefully it's not a massive SE ridge. It kind of had the appearance of a reload a few days later no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, weathafella said: It kind of had the appearance of a reload a few days later no? I think there is a lot of spread, but it seemed like the mean was trying to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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