Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: My exact reason as you mentioned, We need all bodies of water to freeze, Northern part of the state is dealing with that now, Plenty of snow there, And plenty of open water to go with it. I don't think open water will be an issue for the rest of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Well anyways, looks like 2 legit chances of something other than these nuisance deals, over the next 10-12 days. In between...looks like a heck of a cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Seriously into the weather, no hype and damn he knows stuff. his web site is off the hook great for links and I highly recommend a follow. crankyweatherguy @crankywxguy I do weather stuff. I don't do weather hysterics stuff. I don't craft my feed to support any particular kind of weather. What comes, comes, and we shall follow. http://www.stormhamster.com/wall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Need more SREFS from you! people have to understand what the use is, if they don't get it IDK what to say. No more SREF posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: No more SREF posts. lol I kid. But remember in Jan 15 how the Euro ENS were alone with showing a heavy swath of snow across NE and it kept increasing as we got closer. That is what I use snow maps for, just a tool in the mean. The OP runs snow maps are pretty lame for sure especially beyond a day or two. Ens mean snow maps are part of the tool bag when trying to get a grasp on pattern evolution. Its easy to see how things may evolve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean the extreme cold is sort of useless without snow...unless you don't want your sled to fall through the ice of course. We have a winner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Looks like we have some chances next week as the flow buckles with some ridging developing into the GoAK. After mid-month that ridging looks to break down or get cutoff and we go back to a more zonal flow across the Conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Scooter needs to reign in his cubicle mate I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 For thoses who don't think ENS snow maps have any value there is this. Now combine these two and you do the math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 there is one take away from cold with no snow ... if it's syrupy cold, the ocean is fantastic on clear mornings. you get that micro-layer explosive parcel lift, in the form of 'sea smoke.' when back-lit, it's a mesmerizing visage. sometimes, 'steam dogs' piller their way across the surface, sometimes rotating around one-another like Fuji Wara semi-translucent 'nados. i've actually seen steam dogs sinuously rope into the sky some hundred foot or more in between plumes of luminescence. the wind has to be light, and the air temperature and dew points need to be sufficiently differentiated wrt to the sea-surface. i'm sure it can happen at any temperature, but there's something about it when it's like 4 F ---- again... we start threads for clawing and scraping events... we should start one for the D4.5 to 5 er. as i was saying yesterday, that one has the best shot yet at a bona fide synoptic snow. not that these others aren't, but when the snow fall can't even fend off a feeble December sun the following afternoon ...somehow it doesn't 'feel' like it should count (childish, i know ). as other's have certainly mentioned, this one has a deeper antecedent cold. one thing that's assisting a whiter solution is the speed of system translation; it's moving so fast that there really isn't enough time for warm advection to erode/penetrate. you get the ib pulse/snow burst, then some freezing snitzels...then the back side cold shot flows in. it's true that the euro has been warm-ish with that, but, considering that three runs ago it took the deep layer over Michigan and now...over or south of the sne means that it's the trendy model. the gfs has been pretty stoutly fixed on a 'sw flow' isentropic type of event. the 12 memebers of the ensembles that i've seen have all had some for of this, too. seems the onus is on the euro to put up or shut up. ---- i like the 'nickle -dime' event modeling trends. we seem to have found our way into a pattern for it. thus deep negatively tilted stemwinder tropospheric torque jobs were not a very good fit, either logically or intuitively, against the back-drop flow compression (for the newbie, flow compression ...we mean an abnormally large amount of the lines on the 500 mb weather maps). the models seem to have gotten away from that as of late. it sort of lend confidence because the impulse type and frequency doesn't offend anything. that and the consistency of the operational gfs for D 5. no problem with a 4" type solid advisory growing in probability... ---- i'm impressed by the cold despite the at times 585 dm heights from TX-FL... again, that's all imposing a mammoth gradient from s to n over the midriff latitudes of the continent. the erstwhile epo has been subtly negative .. it seems that one way or the other, cold has been transmitted into Canada off that indicator's physical manifestation. you almost wonder if 'something's gotta give'... or not, maybe we're stuck with super fast balloon rides all winter. who knows. but one thing is for certain, with the flow being so fast ...so, if and when we get proverbially boned, we don't have to wait long until the next dice roll... sometimes you get on negative streaks at the casino, sometimes you get on positive ones too. such is life living on the gradient its self. in the meantime, the 10-d canadian ensemble product is still putting up some impressive negative sd's over almost all of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 I agree with Steve here. I don't take it verbatim but if totals inch up and press further SE run to run that's a positive sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 Tip has to be the last one here using a keyboard for posting...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Tip has to be the last one here using a keyboard for posting...lol. People still use laptops? Those are almost extinct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I don't think open water will be an issue for the rest of winter No, It won't be with this upcoming arctic shot, The winter is shaping up nicely looking ahead so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snow coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The euro guidance actually has a rather prolonged overrunning event. Would be nice to scoot it SE a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snow coming Where was that quote...was it erased?? I didn't see that anywhere on here? I like the sound of it though. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, WinterWolf said: Where was that quote...was it erased?? I didn't see that anywhere on here? I like the sound of it though. :-) One of the issues with mobile is sometimes you can't erase quotes you don't want to use so I went with the flow and read Kevin's mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snow coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: One of the issues with mobile is sometimes you can't erase quotes you don't want to use so I went with the flow and read Kevin's mind. Oh ok lol...hopefully that is the FLOW......SNOWWWW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The GFS tries to utilize Tippy's temp gradient after day 10. Euro too for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The euro guidance actually has a rather prolonged overrunning event. Would be nice to scoot it SE a bit. It still develops that 2ndary. That will lock in low levels ensuring no warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 It would be better if this secondary gets handed off further south along the coast as not get caught in the transition zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I can't post them here, but the euro tropical forcing stuff really does not argue (at least IMO) for a breakdown through the 20th or so. Now perhaps it weakens a bit...afterall you ca't keep sub 500 thicknesses around forever...but for now...I don't see a full fledged pattern breakdown through 2 weeks or so. I should stress...that does not mean it's always cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I can't post them here, but the euro tropical forcing stuff really does not argue (at least IMO) for a breakdown through the 20th or so. Now perhaps it weakens a bit...afterall you ca't keep sub 500 thicknesses around forever...but for now...I don't see a full fledged pattern breakdown through 2 weeks or so. I should stress...that does not mean it's always cold and snowy. Right. We all read it, you are guaranteeing a white Christmas for all of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I can't post them here, but the euro tropical forcing stuff really does not argue (at least IMO) for a breakdown through the 20th or so. Now perhaps it weakens a bit...afterall you ca't keep sub 500 thicknesses around forever...but for now...I don't see a full fledged pattern breakdown through 2 weeks or so. I should stress...that does not mean it's always cold and snowy. No, but in the waffling back and forth you would think there would be some more chances for wintry precip around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The euro guidance actually has a rather prolonged overrunning event. Would be nice to scoot it SE a bit. It's the two waves from the looks of it. I think that's the way to get it done...one wave ends up blowing it up and warms most up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The euro guidance actually has a rather prolonged overrunning event. Would be nice to scoot it SE a bit. yeah ... i was noticing that and comparing it to your 'euro is warm' post from earlier - haha. glad you noticed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It's the two waves from the looks of it. I think that's the way to get it done...one wave ends up blowing it up and warms most up. yeah, ...not that anyone asked, but ... i was opining the idea a while ago that single systems are not favored in this flow type either - it's too fast everywhere. really going smeared out is the path of least deterministic regret i think - ... 2 wave or general isentropic lift spanning awhile is support as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I can't post them here, but the euro tropical forcing stuff really does not argue (at least IMO) for a breakdown through the 20th or so. Now perhaps it weakens a bit...afterall you ca't keep sub 500 thicknesses around forever...but for now...I don't see a full fledged pattern breakdown through 2 weeks or so. I should stress...that does not mean it's always cold and snowy. Again, wouldn't be wholly shocking if models tried to rush the pattern out the front door. Like you say, we haven't created a new home for the polar vortex, but a snapback to banana hammocks shouldn't be all that likely either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.