Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Any other setup and we would be worried about this being over amped. Sheer luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I need some help too if I want more than an inch. Hopefully the farther North trends continue as they did today I'm fully prepared from a coating to an inch. 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nothing like the SREFs to keep hopes up for something more significant. It was powderfreak's go-to guidance for map porn in 2015 while he downed a bottle of jack and the real models were showing a scooter jackpot. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nothing like the SREFs to keep hopes up for something more significant. It was powderfreak's go-to guidance for map porn in 2015 while he downed a bottle of jack and the real models were showing a scooter jackpot. Can't we shop Scott's head onto this? Just taking loops on the lift, endlessly in search of snow. But really are the SREFs even much of a trend tool anymore? We have guidance that comes in more timely that can point to trends already. The HRRR ensembles will probably end up taking that role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Any other setup and we would be worried about this being over amped. Sheer luck Good high posistion over QUE, Zero northern stream interaction, Poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Good high posistion over QUE, Zero northern stream interaction, Poof Bona-fide single degree digit blizzard in North Dakota , wish we lived there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Through 36, the nam says to shut off the lights and go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Through 36, the nam says to shut off the lights and go to bed. Hi Res Nam looks a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Can't we shop Scott's head onto this? Just taking loops on the lift, endlessly in search of snow. But really are the SREFs even much of a trend tool anymore? We have guidance that comes in more timely that can point to trends already. The HRRR ensembles will probably end up taking that role. Looks like Eck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Can't we shop Scott's head onto this? Just taking loops on the lift, endlessly in search of snow. But really are the SREFs even much of a trend tool anymore? We have guidance that comes in more timely that can point to trends already. The HRRR ensembles will probably end up taking that role. Lmao. This winter the SREFs will probably have me picking bananas and mangos from my front yard with everything going through Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 NAM is getting a clue it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Scott, it seems that shortwave energy over Denver is going to be the impetus for the DEC 9th system that either passes too far to the east (GFS) or might deliver us rain/snow (NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Scott, it seems that shortwave energy over Denver is going to be the impetus for the DEC 9th system that either passes too far to the east (GFS) or might deliver us rain/snow (NAM) I think nothing really occurs with that. Too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Scott what are your thoughts towards the Dec 11-13th threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is getting a clue it seems. Bruce Willis on the BDL runway.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 I think the GFS is just too progressive with the polar stream disturbance for the 11-13th system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Why does the polar jet stream get so progressive during La Nina seasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think the GFS is just too progressive with the polar stream disturbance for the 11-13th system Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Bias of the GFS even during a progressive regime, the GFS is too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Bias of the GFS even during a progressive regime, the GFS is too progressive. Or you can say a progressive regime plays to it's wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Or you can say a progressive regime plays to it's wheelhouse. Right. It tends to rival the Euro in progressive patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Bruce Willis on the BDL runway.... Last time he used that saying . .... oops. But this time it will work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Yeah it was either or, either it will be playing into its biases or it will be running with the progressive nature of the jet stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Bruce Willis on the BDL runway.... Maybe the NAM saw the flags and pulled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 0z RGEM did not look to bad, Even gets some snow up here, Further north then the 18z run for weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 0z RGEM did not look to bad, Even gets some snow up here, Further north then the 18z run for weds Can you post it bud?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 0z RGEM did not look to bad, Even gets some snow up here, Further north then the 18z run for weds The GEMs look reasonable. Borderline warning event in PA, while maybe a lolli 2-3 in the CT hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Last time he used that saying . .... oops. But this time it will work Last time I remember was the 2016 January blizzard that scraped most of us. But maybe I'm missing another more recent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Can anyone explain why we seemingly can't buy a sustained period of -NAO during the winter months since 2010-11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Can you post it bud?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Last time I remember was the 2016 January blizzard that scraped most of us. But maybe I'm missing another more recent storm. I don't remember that, thought it was the great ORH Messenger mid level magic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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