ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah I feel good about snow, but so-so on much accumulation if that makes sense. I think really late Tue/really early Wed adjacent NY state could be pounding 1"/hr stuff before it all starts to fall apart. Probably excruciatingly slow advancement too of the moderate/heavy stuff...it will look amazing, and then almost grind to a halt over POU or something and keep getting shredded northeast of that with the steadier stuff moving into DXR at like 5mph, lol. I hope I'm wrong and that we see the models underestimate the downstream ridging a bit in the final 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Long range looks cold/dry to me generally speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Even the HP is in a good spot tp try and help with the fronto processes...but there isn't a massive baroclinic zone here with sort of stale cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Rgem continues a nice 1-3 to ORH and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah I feel good about snow, but so-so on much accumulation if that makes sense. I think really late Tue/really early Wed adjacent NY state could be pounding 1"/hr stuff before it all starts to fall apart. The increase NE of QPF is what I am watching on the RGEM, where it hands off and the flow. Once we get inside 24 in the AM should have a good handle, as of now a slightly more amped solution than the globals seems the way to go. The 4 K NAM is overamped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Probably excruciatingly slow advancement too of the moderate/heavy stuff...it will look amazing, and then almost grind to a halt over POU or something and keep getting shredded northeast of that with the steadier stuff moving into DXR at like 5mph, lol. I hope I'm wrong and that we see the models underestimate the downstream ridging a bit in the final 24 hours. this is where we need Tippys SE Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The increase NE of QPF is what I am watching on the RGEM, where it hands off and the flow. Once we get inside 24 in the AM should have a good handle, as of now a slightly more amped solution than the globals seems the way to go. The 4 K NAM is overamped. While this would be nice..no chance of happening like that with such a sharp cutoff. 1-3 Seems good for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 The thing to watch tonight, like Will said, is the ridging ahead of it. Check the 00z raobs versus the model forecasts. And we can't sleep on the Upper Midwest part of the flow either. That will play into the eventual outcome too. We probably want to see that a little deeper and digging into the Southeast part of the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: While this would be nice..no chance of happening like that with such a sharp cutoff. 1-3 Seems good for now What strings did you pull to get WeatherBell to add a grid point on top of your house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: What strings did you pull to get WeatherBell to add a grid point on top of your house? It pays to be friends with JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: What strings did you pull to get WeatherBell to add a grid point on top of your house? Isn't that a TropicalTidbit map? haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The thing to watch tonight, like Will said, is the ridging ahead of it. Check the 00z raobs versus the model forecasts. And we can't sleep on the Upper Midwest part of the flow either. That will play into the eventual outcome too. We probably want to see that a little deeper and digging into the Southeast part of the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just now, powderfreak said: Isn't that a TropicalTidbit map? haha. He is not friends with Levi, Joey in Tolland pulled those strings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 To me..the big convection down south currently and Ray's SE ridge argue for a stronger push North and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Isn't that a TropicalTidbit map? haha. True. Looked too quickly and though the color scale was WeatherBell. WeatherBell is ASOS/AWOS locations I believe. 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: To me..the big convection down south currently and Ray's SE ridge argue for a stronger push North and west I would wait and see how it looks in a few hours. This is mainly WAA related ahead of the main shortwave. But if it stays more E/W like this with the main shortwave, we're probably in trouble for a N bust in modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We do. We like that...we think that's ghoood. (Said in Terry Francona voice) "The PV is a good kid...I like the way that the cold comes out of his hand" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Weeklies look good. Classic Nina. Week 3 has higher heights near Bering Sea up through the N Pole into nrn Greenland. Also SE ridge. Week 4 lookd like s goodf -EPO and also SE ridge albeit weaker. So if we play our cards right...hopefully we battle ground. Precip anomalies look like battle ground is close by. Obviously it may not work out totally favorable, but I'd hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe we'll get another huge short term model bust like 1/27/11...but I'm not holding my breath....certainly possible for some people to see a couple of inches. Maybe even 3-4" if everything goes right. But still annoying to think about what could have been. well didn't today's event kind of fizzle as it came east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 So much for the hand wringing over last Thursday's weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: To me..the big convection down south currently and Ray's SE ridge argue for a stronger push North and west Hope you do well. I think I'm screwed on this one. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: So much for the hand wringing over last Thursday's weeklies. Well they could always revert, but there was some talk about them not really making a lot of sense given the tropics. I like using velocity potential at 200mb. This shows you where the MJO driven divergence is at this level and seems to be a better indicator of where the "forcing" is instead of typical RMM circle plots. That's been out in the maritime continent and stays there through week 2+. So in a way, I'm not surprised they went to that look. But, obviously storm track to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well they could always revert, but there was some talk about them not really making a lot of sense given the tropics. I like using velocity potential at 200mb. This shows you where the MJO driven divergence is at this level and seems to be a better indicator of where the "forcing" is instead of typical RMM circle plots. That's been out in the maritime continent and stays there through week 2+. So in a way, I'm not surprised they went to that look. But, obviously storm track to be determined. It'll be exciting to visit region 1 in the spring. One of our favorites for colder than normal. But you have a good point about it's not so much where the convection is but where the forcing from the convection is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It'll be exciting to visit region 1 in the spring. One of our favorites for colder than normal. But you have a good point about it's not so much where the convection is but where the forcing from the convection is. Haha. This time of year their rain can be our gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 That's awesome .. that 300 hour GFS could not pack butts any more mercilessly with heights approaching 600 dm over the deep SE like that. thank goodness it's both 300 hours, and an 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Ryan's station(NBC Connecticut 30) calling for mostly rain for CT..except for NW and NE elevated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hope you do well. I think I'm screwed on this one. Good luck. I need some help too if I want more than an inch. Hopefully the farther North trends continue as they did today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 I went 1-3" for the Litchfield hills and DXR area, C-1" everywhere else away from the shoreline for tomorrow evening. Thinking it'll be closer to 1" than 3" for most in that area, but it wouldn't take much to see DXR or up near Norfolk end up in SN for an hour or two and pick up a quick 1-2" so I wanted to leave a little wiggle room to be sure. Outside of CT, I'd say C-1 for most in SNE west of the RI/MA border or so with 1-3" in the Berks. Slightly concerned that modeling may be overdoing ridging, but not concerned enough to go any higher without a shift in the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Ants says SREF's bumped up and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 21z SREFS out in 15 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Nothing like the SREFs to keep hopes up for something more significant. It was powderfreak's go-to guidance for map porn in 2015 while he downed a bottle of jack and the real models were showing a scooter jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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