CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 This is most certainly a cutter prone pattern. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional. We very may have one in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Looks like NAM is a little more down to earth tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks like NAM is a little more down to earth tomorrow night. I'm still annoyed at how good that s/w is literally 18 hours before it reaches us. Such a tease. That could have been a solid warning event. Ironically, I think today's event sort of screws us...it creates more confluence to the north and northeast which helps dampen the shortwave faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm still annoyed at how good that s/w is literally 18 hours before it reaches us. Such a tease. That could have been a solid warning event. Ironically, I think today's event sort of screws us...it creates more confluence to the north and northeast which helps dampen the shortwave faster. I know it. That's bothered me for days...lol. Not that I would have got much at home...but that could have been a great paste job for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Living west of 91 in Central CT, I'll take another inch or two tomorrow night into Wed. Morning....pad the season total lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: I know it. That's bothered me for days...lol. Not that I would have got much at home...but that could have been a great paste job for many. It actually doesn't look too dissimilar to Dec 23, 1997...it just doesn't make it as far northeast. Not saying we would have gotten a repeat since that storm probably had some special circumstances that we still do not fully understand, but it gives you an idea of how well a really negatively tilted shortwave can overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm still annoyed at how good that s/w is literally 18 hours before it reaches us. Such a tease. That could have been a solid warning event. Ironically, I think today's event sort of screws us...it creates more confluence to the north and northeast which helps dampen the shortwave faster. 4 Km NAM is still amped in fact adds another .25 into CT, I am impressed by the convection near the Gulf. Have to wonder if this is a little more amped up. The mesos are pretty good at sniffing this out. Will be interesting in the AM to see just how far north this gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Hopefully we can turn next Monday into a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 4 Km NAM is still amped in fact adds another .25 into CT, I am impressed by the convection near the Gulf. Have to wonder if this is a little more amped up. The mesos are pretty good at sniffing this out. Will be interesting in the AM to see just how far north this gets Yeah you're right. Much different that 12K NAM. I guess we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is most certainly a cutter prone pattern. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional. We very may have one in a week. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully we can turn next Monday into a SWFE. Man the EPS is sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 I will most certainly take minor events this time of year, but I think everyone wishes that that SW did not $hit the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 4 Km NAM is still amped in fact adds another .25 into CT, I am impressed by the convection near the Gulf. Have to wonder if this is a little more amped up. The mesos are pretty good at sniffing this out. Will be interesting in the AM to see just how far north this gets Maybe we'll get another huge short term model bust like 1/27/11...but I'm not holding my breath....certainly possible for some people to see a couple of inches. Maybe even 3-4" if everything goes right. But still annoying to think about what could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 This could be one of those NJ highlands into Poconos plasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is most certainly a cutter prone pattern. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional. We very may have one in a week. Everything wants to deamp coming East. And that's ok. This was supposed to be a stemwinder in the lakes. So I don't see this as a classic cut pattern. Does that mean one can't happen? Of course not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Everything wants to deamp coming East. And that's ok. This was supposed to be a stemwinder in the lakes. So I don't see this as a classic cut pattern. Does that mean one can't happen? Of course not I said prone to cutters not a classic cutter. There's a big difference. You can be annoying in full weenie mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I said prone to cutters not a classic cutter. There's a big difference. You can be annoying in full weenie mode. Just like those that are annoying because they think their winter forecast is great .and everything has to happen just as they layout (not you). Tomorriw night could be fun if some folks in central and western areas can grab a few inches. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everything wants to deamp coming East. And that's ok. This was supposed to be a stemwinder in the lakes. So I don't see this as a classic cut pattern. Does that mean one can't happen? Of course not It's really not ok unless you want a trace here and there and once in a while get 2-4. Thankfully the SE ridge is robust enough to allow us to walk the line and sometimes score nicely even if you risk a torchy cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 4 Km NAM is still amped in fact adds another .25 into CT, I am impressed by the convection near the Gulf. Have to wonder if this is a little more amped up. The mesos are pretty good at sniffing this out. Will be interesting in the AM to see just how far north this gets You want to see it start becoming more N/S linear I think. That will pump the latent heat more due N than shunt it E. The more WAA we can get N the bigger positive bust I could see. HRRRX looks pretty robust for SW New England very early Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 I would really love a 12z NCAR ensemble run right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 I haven't seen many references to any single winter outlook in particular this season; some simply put forth a good, honest effort, and that was the end of it. While others nobly donated about twenty minutes of their time to composing about two paragraphs worth of an educated guess based upon an aggregate of twitter feeds. Everyone contributed in their own way to the best of their ability. Hopefully western areas get a nice surprise in this upcoming event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just like those that are annoying because they think their winter forecast is great .and everything has to happen just as they layout (not you). Tomorriw night could be fun if some folks in central and western areas can grab a few inches. We'll see I'm just trying to be honest with how I see things. I think there are mixed messages all the time between those that want cold and snow, and then those that sort of rebut those calls. I hate seeing those statements like "I thought this was supposed to be a great pattern....what happened?" when the message about the possibilities of not so favorable storm tracks was conveyed, but lost in the drivel of back and forth. Now to be clear...I like the available cold source. That's a huge plus. Like you said, things could dampen out perhaps if we get the Tippy ruler flow, and get a lot of overrunning or SWFE...but deep plunging cold into the Plains can supercharge the Plains lows too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Man the EPS is sick Do you have access to the 11-15 day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Just because Nina is weak, doesn't mean a SE ridge cannot be stout. December 1990 had a monster SE ridge...neutral ENSO year. There's other examples too. yeah i'm not sure i wanna be couched in with the Nino/Nina = ridge one way or the other actually ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: I'm just trying to be honest with how I see things. I think there are mixed messages all the time between those that want cold and snow, and then those that sort of rebut those calls. I hate seeing those statements like "I thought this was supposed to be a great pattern....what happened?" when the message about the possibilities of not so favorable storm tracks was conveyed, but lost in the drivel of back and forth. Now to be clear...I like the available cold source. That's a huge plus. Like you said, things could dampen out perhaps if we get the Tippy ruler flow, and get a lot of overrunning or SWFE...but deep plunging cold into the Plais can supercharge the Plains lows too. 1980s is not out of the question for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You want to see it start becoming more N/S linear I think. That will pump the latent heat more due N than shunt it E. The more WAA we can get N the bigger positive bust I could see. HRRRX looks pretty robust for SW New England very early Wednesday. Amazing how threatening it looks so close to us...here's the 18z RGEM at 30 hours: Then it craps out quickly in the span of about 6-8 hours, lol. That said, the RGEM does still get some light snows into most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 1980s is not out of the question for sure. At least we have a shot...I'm happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: At least we have a shot...I'm happy with that. We do. We like that...we think that's ghoood. (Said in Terry Francona voice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Amazing how threatening it looks so close to us...here's the 18z RGEM at 30 hours: Then is craps out quickly in the span of about 6-8 hours, lol. That said, the RGEM does still get some light snows into most of SNE. Yeah I feel good about snow, but so-so on much accumulation if that makes sense. I think really late Tue/really early Wed adjacent NY state could be pounding 1"/hr stuff before it all starts to fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: Do you have access to the 11-15 day? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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