RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 49 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said: cool. feels like some mets enjoy squashing/condescending to weenies. as long as its a moderation and not a torch I don't see any reason to tell snow lovers to hold their excitement. first Dec like this in a long time and I for one am happy about it. Tippy, yes. He gets angry. All other mets, Just trying to keep a levelness to threads that tend to spin out of control. While nothing looks like it is time to remove layers, at least we aren't wearing bathing suits like last Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 In addition to the Tues nite event.. I'd still keep an eye for a sneaky wave along arctic front or some type of quick hitting anafrontal deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 EPS continued idea of stronger ridge building near Alaska keeping cold pattern in place and continues to look active storm wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Well that is a very interesting NAM solution for tomorrow night 3-6 across C and NCT WRI Western Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Well that is a very interesting NAM solution for tomorrow night 3-6 across C and NCT WRI Western Mass I'm thinking it's NAM being NAM, but a 1-3" inch event certainly is realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Tippy, yes. He gets angry. All other mets, Just trying to keep a levelness to threads that tend to spin out of control. While nothing looks like it is time to remove layers, at least we aren't wearing bathing suits like last Dec. wtf - what did i do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS continued idea of stronger ridge building near Alaska keeping cold pattern in place and continues to look active storm wise it's showing up big time on the D10-12 operational Euro mean as it's offered at PSU's freebie site. That's a helluva -EPO ridge there. what's interesting is that the southern tier heights just refuse to dismantle. we're still ending up with surplus gradient as the colder heights of winter press (seasonally) southward up against; too much gradient means the deep layer flow (wind) is too fast. i know that concept may cause some eyes to glaze over, but for the mets and savvy enthusiasts...that means that the whole of it is really in a negative interference pattern - whether it looks that way or not, it is... it doesn't mean things can't happen...just that there is a sort of static tendency to lower probabilities for things to happen ...if not at times damping features right out of existence and not happening at all. one thing that's interesting to me about the general theme/blend of the operationals et al as we pass into/through mid-month, is the mean PV. the lower tropospheric tapestry of heights/pressure really argues for the bottom half of the atmosphere being in split structure. yet if we observe the data for the stratosphere/troposphere monitoring, there's not much of typical correlators going on in the top half of the atmosphere. i find that fascinating. typically we see split PV's tending to evolve from the top down - this 'might' be doing so the other way. at least it appears that way right now... anyway, if anything, that might offer increased cold transport through the remainder of the month - agreed, but something down S has gotta give. wow. did anyone see the -30 C 850 plume just NW of NE on the D9? heh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's showing up big time on the D10-12 operational Euro mean as it's offered at PSU's freebie site. That's a helluva -EPO ridge there. what's interesting is that the southern tier heights just refuse to dismantle. we're still ending up with surplus gradient as the colder heights of winter press (seasonally) southward up against; too much gradient means the deep layer flow (wind) is too fast. i know that concept may cause some eyes to glaze over, but for the mets and savvy enthusiasts...that means that the whole of it is really in a negative interference pattern - whether it looks that way or not, it is... it doesn't mean things can't happen...just that there is a sort of static tendency to lower probabilities for things to happen ...if not at times damping features right out of existence and not happening at all. one thing that's interesting to me about the general theme/blend of the operationals et al as we pass into/through mid-month, is the mean PV. the lower tropospheric tapestry of heights/pressure really argues for the bottom half of the atmosphere being in split structure. yet if we observe the data for the stratosphere/troposphere monitoring, there's not much of typical correlators going on in the top half of the atmosphere. i find that fascinating. typically we see split PV's tending to evolve from the top down - this 'might' be doing so the other way. at least it appears that way right now... anyway, if anything, that might offer increased cold transport through the remainder of the month - agreed, but something down S has gotta give. wow. did anyone see the -30 C 850 plume just NW of NE on the D9? heh - It will be interesting, at least for me, to see what Dr. Cohen's thoughts are on the AO and PV going forward the next 2-3 weeks when he posts tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 RGEM closer to NAM than GFS tomorrow night into Wed. Drops 1-3" most of interior SNE, with highest amounts in elevations . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: RGEM closer to NAM than GFS tomorrow night into Wed. Drops 1-3" most of interior SNE, with highest amounts in elevations . Yea I kind of like the look of the building cold up top, GFS shears the heck out of it while the mesos keep some convective elements this could be your over achiever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 That system really fights dry air as it approaches. It's really too bad that shortwave can't hold together just another 12-18 hours longer down the pipeline. It is literally the difference between probably a warning event and just some light nuisance snow. Best chance for accumulations is probably like DXR area and W CT. Hopefully it can get further northeast, but that dry air is nasty that builds in with tonight's ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 All the good forcing really quits as it moves NE. Usually the opposite of an overachiever. I think best spot for anything is out by Danbury in the higher terrain. That's where some decent lift at 700 seems to occur. Then craps out east. Sometimes these lows may last a bit further NE than modeled, but I certainly wouldn't get giddy east of 91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 GFS is really the dryest model, the Mesos saturate the columns good in CT before crapping out out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Even the normally paltry GGEM drops1-3 as far east as ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Don't be a QPF queen on this one...def take note of the rapidly weakening forcing. The s/w is pretty potent before it reaches us, so it's worth watching, but I wouldn't get too sucked in by QPF yet. 1-3" is def possible, but I'm just saying don't be shocked if it's a total dud either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Don't be a QPF queen on this one...def take note of the rapidly weakening forcing. The s/w is pretty potent before it reaches us, so it's worth watching, but I wouldn't get too sucked in by QPF yet. 1-3" is def possible, but I'm just saying don't be shocked if it's a total dud either. Bruce Willis is already on BDL runway waving his flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Don't be a QPF queen on this one...def take note of the rapidly weakening forcing. The s/w is pretty potent before it reaches us, so it's worth watching, but I wouldn't get too sucked in by QPF yet. 1-3" is def possible, but I'm just saying don't be shocked if it's a total dud either. I am watching the column RH and tossing the GFS right now, everything else looks like a 1-3 for NCT WMass. Could change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Guess we'll just watch the trends on mesos. If they stay same or increase then we know it's coming. But any backing off and it's congrats Newburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Guess we'll just watch the trends on mesos. If they stay same or increase then we know it's coming. But any backing off and it's congrats Newburgh Will be interesting for sure, have another day to watch. EMA looks like the least likely spot for anything with WCT Wmass possibly scoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Bruce Willis is already on BDL runway waving his flags. Lol...I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Will be interesting for sure, have another day to watch. EMA looks like the least likely spot for anything with WCT Wmass possibly scoring. Nothing here. Just watch the mid levels heading into tomorrow. Sometimes they sneak in a bit more to the NE, but in general...I don't like seeing things trend negative with time as they will here. But if Kevin got an inch or so..it would not surprise me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Surface temps look marginal tomorrow night as well so here in the valley we need to get some pretty decent lift to or it's probably just going to be non accumulating cat paws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Bruce Willis is already on BDL runway waving his flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Heard the latest GFS run is cold as a witch's...torso, but likely overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 Nice to see GEFS even more robust with the ridging north of AK this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 You can see part of the issue here, in addition to fighting dry air to NE. Early Wednesday you have 25-35 knots of sloped ascent (900 mb up through 800 mb). Not a sharp front, but fine for light snow. See how that changes by 15z as forcing moves over SNE. Still 25 knots of flow, but much less sloped. We're talking parcels rising from 850 to 840 mb. A lot less lift. We're saturated and there will be lift just due to the passing trof, but it's definitely not a look you want to see for widespread accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Nice to see GEFS even more robust with the ridging north of AK this run. that's what I like to read! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 GEFS really robust with that. But remember, storm tracks are not just decided by Ak ridging. SE ridge may flex too. But, if you want snow, gotta play with fire in December. Certainly better than seeing a black hole up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You can see part of the issue here, in addition to fighting dry air to NE. Early Wednesday you have 25-35 knots of sloped ascent (900 mb up through 800 mb). Not a sharp front, but fine for light snow. See how that changes by 15z as forcing moves over SNE. Still 25 knots of flow, but much less sloped. We're talking parcels rising from 850 to 840 mb. A lot less lift. We're saturated and there will be lift just due to the passing trof, but it's definitely not a look you want to see for widespread accumulations. But you're also using the GFS which is driest. Can you do same with RGEM or GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: But you're also using the GFS which is driest. Can you do same with RGEM or GGEM? Well those images are more used for lift, but the condensation pressure deficit (the shading) is usually rule of thumb something around 20 mb is good enough for precip. That's anything in blueish. I can do it with the RGEM, but it does cut off at 12z because it's only 48 hours. The GGEM does show a similar evolution. The forcing is best early and west, and becomes less sloped with time as it advances through SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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