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December pattern/forecast thread


weathafella

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Page or more of this recent stuff should really have been entered into the model mayhem thread...

But so long as this has obliterated:

The atmosphere would have to thread the needle quite "lucky" like to get this stuff to work out the way this 18z run has features through D 6. 

D 5 in this modeling technology era is just sort of entering the hockey-stick part of the better verification curve, granted, BUT ...big but at that, this is not really a typical 5 days here.  There is just a tremendous amount of gradient between southern Canada and deep south - the total of which is exciting static balanced velocities that are anomalously high everywhere over the U.S.

That's typically problematic for models, being the first red flag, for timing events just right (proverbial needle threads...). 

I am not meaning to point fingers; I'm just trying to enter some objective caution here just in case. There is still a baseline negative interference pattern, which shrinks the playing field.

The flow is too compressed for S/W to maintain enough mechanic power ejecting out of the west, getting absorbed into the extreme wind speeds (form of shear).  Doesn't mean it can't happen - just that it's a parlay to get things to work out just right. For one, the latitude is usually stretched where the S/W impacts the weather most sensibly (narrow).

 

 

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Yeah let's keep the clown range model solutions out of here. Discussing ensembles and teleconnections in the LR is fine but we don't need to know what the OP GFS is showing at day 13. It is 100% irrelevant to this thread. That's what the mode mayhem thread is for  

 

 

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