Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: too much info can be a bad thing in weenieland. went from a couple models 2x a day years ago to so many models from every country run 4x a day plus weekly monthly and yearly forecasts. maybe weeklies have always been around and its just the access to them that is the issue, but i see them posted and discussed at nausea everywhere. Actually... multiple cycles (4) per 24 hour period have been in place for decades. And, since the advent of the internet ... I'm preeeeety sure it's been accessible at least for half that time. I can recall clicking open 06 z runs in 1999 anways... But yeah, agreed in principle. Those that may not know how to consume the data (a 'how' that has a LOT of moving parts) appropriately, may get led down a prim-rose path and end up disappointed; perhaps because they didn't know how to effectively discriminate the various information ...etc, etc. Example, years ago, the 06z and 18z cycles used to have their grid/initialization based on an amalgam of real data combined with the first 6 or 12 hours of the preceding modeled data from the 00z and 12z cycle(s) respectively. It is not hard to imagine that may have been unknown to the uninformed enthusiast with access to the model output. Additionally, not to be condescending but you gotta kinda sorta hafta understand that atmospheric mechanics are a fluid affair ...such that random perturbation becomes an increasingly unknown factor ...particularly the farther out in time the processing of the models crank. If we think logically... that means that the 06 and 18z runs must then have 'some' additional small amount of falsity because those sorts of perturbations begin immediately, albeit seemingly undetectabe, when the model process starts. It's actually quite a fascinating aspect of Meteorological sub-science, modeling, and this business of fractals/chaos entering the pictures. I'm not sure that is the case anymore... but emphasis on not sure. Point being, those off- denser physical data runs used to sometimes look more or less appealing and buck trends erroneously. If the user didn't know all this...heh. This is just one example. The general integration of the atmospheric handling also allows the educated and/or experienced consumer to discriminate information, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The weeklies are a good tool...esp for week 2/3...but you really gotta understand that even week 3 isn't that skillful, and week 4 is basically clown range for that product. I'm not sure why they added week 5/6...it kind of reminds me of bothering to extend the OP GFS from 240 hours to 384 hours years ago. Almost meaningless. In that case I guess they did it for the ensembles, but not sure why the weeklies need it. In any case, the ensembles look quite good for the upcoming period in mid-December. I'm pretty confident we'll average below normal temps for a 7-10 day period probably in the Dec 10-20 range...what happens beyond that is questionable and of course, snowfall is not predictable at this point. Again, we can still get cutters in a favorable pattern....it happens. Remember January 2015 before the end of the month? We had two cutters in a fairly favorable pattern and we had meltdowns all over the place in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Tip has some serious time! ...I work from home on Fridays... gosh love the internet! But not so much. I can cobble out a post like that in 10 minutes really. Type-o's, sure...but it's not a big deal. Fast typer with a plethora of useless information bursting for a way out - haha. We live in a dumbed-down era of Tweeting instant gratification, frankly. You didn't ask, but, savoring the information we have available to our daily lives is a lost virtue. Can you imagine (not that I am of course...) if Shakespeare was born in a Tweetisphere? No Macbeth perhaps, and the world loseth one of the greatest artistic achievements ever. Actually...that goes for all the greats of Science and Art ... as much as we marvel at our technologies, they absolutely CRUSH the creative spirit, and/or the willingness of exploration for science; because pacification and distraction by all these sense -pre-orgasms intercede and stop ambition. so tweet away America and the world ... long after the last soul is claimed by humanity's self-inflicted Holocaust, some alien intelligence might ironically finally find a shelled industrial vestige on this planet, and the Archaeologists of their species will come to a curious conclusion - they seemed to be vastly more advanced some 400 years prior to winning their own Darwinian award. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The weeklies are a good tool...esp for week 2/3...but you really gotta understand that even week 3 isn't that skillful, and week 4 is basically clown range for that product. I'm not sure why they added week 5/6...it kind of reminds me of bothering to extend the OP GFS from 240 hours to 384 hours years ago. Almost meaningless. In that case I guess they did it for the ensembles, but not sure why the weeklies need it. In any case, the ensembles look quite good for the upcoming period in mid-December. I'm pretty confident we'll average below normal temps for a 7-10 day period probably in the Dec 10-20 range...what happens beyond that is questionable and of course, snowfall is not predictable at this point. Again, we can still get cutters in a favorable pattern....it happens. Remember January 2015 before the end of the month? We had two cutters in a fairly favorable pattern and we had meltdowns all over the place in here. and I don't have a problem with that assessment using other conventional means, either... I'm just not sure if the flow is going to average very fast while that is happening. As you/we know, our latitude (and also position spatially wrt the continent as a whole) both can default us chilly ...despite x-y-z butt bang aspect going on around. Anyway, as I alluded to, I'd like to see the tendency in the GFS for the flow to be less compressed over the SE ...otheriwise, the table sets with cold, but no one shows for the dinner party. heh, cold stoned ..molecular stalled brown earth ftw ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 25 minutes ago, weathafella said: Tip has some serious time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 can we talk about the pattern, and avoid the useless diatribes about models from decades ago and how they compare to now, and maybe even the pointless youtube videos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 14 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: can we talk about the pattern, and avoid the useless diatribes about models from decades ago and how they compare to now, and maybe even the pointless youtube videos? ha! ur right of course ... as far as my own contribution this morning. More suited to the Banter thread perhaps... but, nested in there, I did expand on the pattern: "Anyway, yesterday's GFS cycles(s) all three of them, seemed to offer a slice of divining winter-light shining through a crack in the torturous dungeon wall. I still see that as true in this 00z run from last night. It's really interesting how the last three days of that particular model's cycling has evolved next week's overall events. Recall ... back whence there were two distinct intervals: one was the opening, quasi-closed low in the SW; subsequently, the big stem-winder in the NP/Lakes region a couple days later. As of now, we have those two sort of sensibly combining really into a single event, where each is a single pulse of QPF mechanics nested within a general impression to the public of inclement weather, ...all of which precedes a polar-arctic outbreak... Then of course, ...the Euro. Best metaphor for this run is like a rock skipping off a pond wrt to how the westerlies butt up against the seemingly interminable SE ridge. Talk about stubborn. Wow. It's like a prize fight. The westerlies and the SE ridge exchanging blow after blow, and I'm wondering which one (in the model depiction) finally caves.. So far, neither has, and each run just crashes the compression of the heights ever more... now we're balancing the geostrophic wind to some 100 kts from California to Virginia rather then allowing the +PNAP to set. In the late 1990s we went through something like this, a period when SE heights were constantly resistant to digging. It actually spanned a couple few winters in there. This was post 1995-1996 ... (yes, we had gem events in those years, nothwithstanding). Funny thing is, when I look the Euro...you can really see it through the animation much more clearly, how the height wall that encompasses the Gulf/west Carribean up and adjacent SW Atl. Basin is really sort of remaining unscathed, safely below the frenzied westerlies "skipping off the roof" up in latitude...." That's all code for needing some time to correct the SE ridge downward. That sucker needs to abate some or we are going to continue seeing the wrong sort of interference pattern - in this case, lowering the possibility of storms that affect our region in ...shall we say, an appeasing fashion. I mean, as we've also elucidated, we can still get snow/winter results here; they just don't come by as often or having nearly the same confidence as when you have bona fide western ridging. There is/was some evidence that the flow might begin to change more profoundly in after D7, particularly in the operational GFS trends/GEFs mean as of late. Not as sure on the Euro camp - Scott or someone may have insights there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Getting back on topic .. The Euro remains robust on Monday snows. Widespread 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Getting back on topic .. The Euro remains robust on Monday snows. Widespread 1-3 It def is the most bullish of any guidance...Ukie actually wasn't that bad either, pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1-3 is a good start for those of us who missed the pre-Thanksgiving event in the Berkshires and the other little events earlier. It actually looks like its going to feel sort of wintry out there. Been awhile since December felt like something other than an extension of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Euro with a decent area of good RH and lift on Monday, esp western areas. Be nice to get a tick south of that s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro with a decent area of good RH and lift on Monday, esp western areas. Be nice to get a tick south of that s/w. Yeah I'd feel better about it if that s/w was just a shade deeper and managed to hold together slightly longer as it tracks just underneath...then I'd be pretty bullish...perhaps even for low end advisory snows. Right now, I'm still pretty pessimistic, but the 12z Ukie/Euro do offer some hope for coating to an inch or so...maybe a lolli to 2" somewhere. I'd just like to see the s/w a little less sheared as it gets to us. But still a bit of time...72-78h out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'd feel better about it if that s/w was just a shade deeper and managed to hold together slightly longer as it tracks just underneath...then I'd be pretty bullish...perhaps even for low end advisory snows. Right now, I'm still pretty pessimistic, but the 12z Ukie/Euro do offer some hope for coating to an inch or so...maybe a lolli to 2" somewhere. I'd just like to see the s/w a little less sheared as it gets to us. But still a bit of time...72-78h out. GFS has it ...mainly Berkshires, but it's in the neighborhood - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It def is the most bullish of any guidance...Ukie actually wasn't that bad either, pretty close. It's too bad we can't trust it like we used to. 2 days out now , so you'd like to think it's got the right idea. At least it seems like snow will be in the air early Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It's too bad we can't trust it like we used to. 2 days out now , so you'd like to think it's got the right idea. At least it seems like snow will be in the air early Mon Well it's not like we're talking a major system here...it's the difference between like 0.10" of qpf and 0.02"....I'm not really going to believe a model is infallible enough to nail that distinction 72-78 hours out. Maybe 24 hours out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 2 hours ago, SJonesWX said: can we talk about the pattern, and avoid the useless diatribes about models from decades ago and how they compare to now, and maybe even the pointless youtube videos? Wah, need some cocoa and marshmallows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well it's not like we're talking a major system here...it's the difference between like 0.10" of qpf and 0.02"....I'm not really going to believe a model is infallible enough to nail that distinction 72-78 hours out. Maybe 24 hours out.... Exactly, you want that exactness wait for the meso and short range stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 he is going to score a coup with Monday like he did with that late Dec storm several years ago, and you guys are going to have to give him credit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Just now, codfishsnowman said: he is going to score a coup with Monday like he did with that late Dec storm several years ago, and you guys are going to have to give him credit who and what did they forecast? Looks like it may snow a little, did (he) forecast a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said: he is going to score a coup with Monday like he did with that late Dec storm several years ago, and you guys are going to have to give him credit What does that mean though? If we get an inch of snow on Monday...that is still well within the envelope of solutions. I wouldn't consider that a coup. If someone was going for like 4-6" of snow and we got it, then I'd def consider that a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Jimmy is he who I believe he's talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Euro ensembles looking nice through the end of their run. They don't offer a whole lot of clarity on what happens mid/late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles looking nice through the end of their run. They don't offer a whole lot of clarity on what happens mid/late next week. Really cold around 12/10-13. Snow chances too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles looking nice through the end of their run. They don't offer a whole lot of clarity on what happens mid/late next week. Lots of spread both ways I take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lots of spread both ways I take it? Kind of a muted FROPA look with possible waves along the front late next week...could be rain or snow from that, who knows yet. It still looks like the Tues/Wed system is a bit too far south, but def a bit of spread there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Yeah EPS has an over running look to it for late next week, Will have to see how it all plays out in future runs as we get closer in but it's not a bad look for wintry weather anyways at this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Some of the metrics I saw that mike V uses has the tropical forcing really not changing much..yet the weeklies flip that quick? Just seems a little questionable to me. It wouldn't be the first time we saw ensembles rush a pattern in and rush a pattern out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It wouldn't be the first time we saw ensembles rush a pattern in and rush a pattern out. Or it may not rush out at all and stay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: What does that mean though? If we get an inch of snow on Monday...that is still well within the envelope of solutions. I wouldn't consider that a coup. If someone was going for like 4-6" of snow and we got it, then I'd def consider that a coup. well he was pretty optimistic about Monday when there were those including myself who had doubts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: well he was pretty optimistic about Monday when there were those including myself who had doubts who is he and how much did he predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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