yoda Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Hey Will, its in la-la land, but check out the brutal cold coalescing in W Canada (specifically BC) and looks to be moving SE into the Upper Plains/Pacific NW shortly after the run ends... 2m temps are in the -40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 17 minutes ago, yoda said: Hey Will, its in la-la land, but check out the brutal cold coalescing in W Canada (specifically BC) and looks to be moving SE into the Upper Plains/Pacific NW shortly after the run ends... 2m temps are in the -40s my old prof always likened to a dam up there, first the spillway over flows then the whole thing breaks. Where the water (air) flows depends on the rocks in the stream below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Yeah this was supposed to be a pattern thread I thought? What is going on? Theres a chance at some snows Monday. Cutter remains up in air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah this was supposed to be a pattern thread I thought? What is going on? Theres a chance at some snows Monday. Cutter remains up in air Always the voice of reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol we numb at this point when it comes to the big high-impact east coast storms. The juju will be back. Been an epic run for the coastal plain when it comes to big ticket events since 2013. For some it has, We will see going forward how this evolves, I would take some SWFE in the interim until we flip the pattern then line up the Miller B's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 12Z/30 GEFS are the bomb folks. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 minute ago, weathafella said: 12Z/30 GEFS are the bomb folks. Wow! That's a nice look. PNA a little higher and shifts the trough axis a bit further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I broke out the off topic posts on missing blizzards in 2015, etc, etc. Keep this one on topic...it aint preseason anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Not very much run to run continuity from one to the next, 12z Euro holding back the energy over MX this run from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's a nice look. PNA a little higher and shifts the trough axis a bit further east. Nice trends since 12z yesterday. Speaking of the main 12z and 00z runs only, that's more ridging out west, more trofing in the east, and ridging over the N Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 The northern stream has been trending a little more potent for the Dec 5 fiasco...so even if the cutoff down south whiffs in any interaction with it, we may still need to watch the northern energy for a minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The northern stream has been trending a little more potent for the Dec 5 fiasco...so even if the cutoff down south whiffs in any interaction with it, we may still need to watch the northern energy for a minor event. If that dug a bit more, would be a nice 1-3 job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Nice trends since 12z yesterday. Speaking of the main 12z and 00z runs only, that more ridging out west, more trofing in the east, and ridging over the N Atlantic. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Monday looking more interesting by the minute . We may snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I was watching the latest forecast update from Joe Cioffi. He mentioned that the models may be having a hard time handling the abnormal Polar warmth and throwing off model consistency. Could this be true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 hour ago, weathafella said: 12Z/30 GEFS are the bomb folks. Wow! would you say they are spectacular? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 15 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: I was watching the latest forecast update from Joe Cioffi. He mentioned that the models may be having a hard time handling the abnormal Polar warmth and throwing off model consistency. Could this be true? Models struggle with large anomalies period. Not stellar with blocking either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 25 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: I was watching the latest forecast update from Joe Cioffi. He mentioned that the models may be having a hard time handling the abnormal Polar warmth and throwing off model consistency. Could this be true? don't personally see why any mass-field anomaly would cause a system performance issue across the various models - no. other mets may have some deeper insight but, the governing equations (thermodynamic/fluid dynamics) are guided by mathematical computations (calculated at grid points) - the math its self doesn't change because of anomalous degrees of temperature and/or quantities of moisture/aerosols at any grid point. one thing i have noticed is an unusually large amount of total mid level gradient, ambient, between ~ 35 N and 66 N around the girdle of the hemisphere. large gradient means the winds in the middle troposphere are going to average stronger. stronger/faster winds are often problematic for the models because they tend to perform poorly with faster flow regimes. i'm just not sure that's the same thing as a 'warm polar region' though - i suppose positive anomaly warmth against negative anomaly cold would have to change my thinking on that .. but, a warm polar region would tend to offset said gradient so I'm again not certain this is what he had in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: would you say they are spectacular? Close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 If that s/w that finally ejects out of Mexico can stay intact more, might have a wintry deal in 7 days. This is the s/w the some guidance has really struggled on. So, two low chance deals perhaps next week. I stress low chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If that s/w that finally ejects out of Mexico can stay intact more, might have a wintry deal in 7 days. This is the s/w the some guidance has really struggled on. So, two low chance deals perhaps next week. I stress low chance. lol you know there'll be a post in like an hour saying "We'll if we get Scooter's two snowstorms next week...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol you know there'll be a post in like an hour saying "We'll if we get Scooter's two snowstorms next week...." Haha, I know. I almost didn't want to say anything...but it may be something to watch anyways. With the models struggling with the Mexico closed low...can't really write off anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Euro ensembles look good today...they are also trying to raise the heights a bit out west at the end of the run...but even before that, the pattern should offer chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles look good today...they are also trying to raise the heights a bit out west at the end of the run...but even before that, the pattern should offer chances. Quite the ridge again near the arctic. Good for cold into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol you know there'll be a post in like an hour saying "We'll if we get Scooter's two snowstorms next week...." Why would you post that in an hour when he already stressed low chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles look good today...they are also trying to raise the heights a bit out west at the end of the run...but even before that, the pattern should offer chances. We chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 3 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Models struggle with large anomalies period. Not stellar with blocking either. I guess if they didn't, they wouldn't be that anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 i didn't see anything that wonderful about the 12z GEFs - in terms of snow and cold implicitly. Looks like the same sort of discordant frenzied morass that got us into the current piece of schit pattern to begin with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: i didn't see anything that wonderful about the 12z GEFs - in terms of snow and cold implicitly. Looks like the same sort of discordant frenzied morass that got us into the current piece of schit pattern to begin with... Winter is coming. Get on the bus or get run over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Winter is coming. Get on the bus or get run over Firstly, that product doesn't mean it's time to jump on anything... this has been explained to you ... a half dozen times, but I will again simply because I'm bored at the moment. That means there is at or less than a 40 % chance for below normal temperatures - which in plain English means the assessment has an ~ 60 % chance of N/S; moreover, that region barely includes New England. in other words, the signal's week. It's actually more likely to dapple anomalies on either side of 0 SD throughout that area - perhaps a few more negatives just to resist being pissy about it. i'll also add that i have reservations about that outlook anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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