December pattern/forecast thread

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Euro caves to GFS on Monday storm.

Big time. Good call from WPC.

[J Paul Gordon]

8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Euro caves to GFS on Monday storm.

Good thing we can definitively plan on the weather almost a week out nowadays. I remember when you couldn't count absolutely on the forecast for the next day.

GFS going for rain or for a whole lot of nothing in this droughty year?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Wonder if this means the EPS loses the good pattern 11-15

[OceanStWx]

On 11/28/2016 at 11:20 AM, Ginx snewx said:

#OTD in 1921 - New England was in the midst of a 4 day ice storm, their worst of record. Ice was 3"  thick in many places. #wxhistory https://t.co/hRi0zrz3H9

Ice storms have a special place in my heart.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Euro caves to GFS on Monday storm.

Looks like Christmas remains on the 25th this year.

[OceanStWx]

On 11/28/2016 at 1:38 PM, SR Airglow said:

Euro is still really close to a pasting for the Wildcat-SR-Sugarloaf corridor on Thursday. It's been ticking north a hair each run with the southern extent of the snow line while the GFS has held pretty steady, but there's still a decent difference between the two. Seems like NWS is basically discounting the Euro, but I wouldn't be so quick to do so considering the GFS's record with temps and the tendency for models to underestimate cold air placement with a wedging high.

For me it's that time of year when it really does make a little sense to wait for the latest Euro. If we go with our model blend too soon, it really only factors in the latest GFS and the old Euro run. We catch lightning in a bottle every now and then, but more often than not that method will fail us in the winter.

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wonder if this means the EPS loses the good pattern 11-15

12z GEFS are real cold with a lobe from the pv almost down to Hudson Bay and a good amount of high latitude blocking after dec 10th 

[powderfreak]

Well that wasn't a fun Euro run day 7-10.  Pretty torched atmosphere.  Looks like we'd get quite cold after day 10 though.

Luckily it'll probably change in 12 hours.

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Well that wasn't a fun Euro run day 7-10.  Pretty torched atmosphere.  Looks like we'd get quite cold after day 10 though.

Luckily it'll probably change in 12 hours.

think we cut again late next week, don't see a cold pattern setting up for another 2 weeks....

[ORH_wxman]

We've got the 12z NOGAPS, JMA, and UKMET on board for next Monday's storm...gotta have confidence in that group.

[OceanStWx]

19 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I meant 2013.. that was a good Dec. There was several ice cold powder events with temps near or below 10

PWM had 20+ inches of snow in 3 days mid month, both snowed with a max temp over that stretch of days of 25. I know I ended up walking to dinner one night with 15" on the ground and a temp of -5. Deep, deep winter.

And it was definitely below zero for the 2nd/3rd January storm at PWM.

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

PWM had 20+ inches of snow in 3 days mid month, both snowed with a max temp over that stretch of days of 25. I know I ended up walking to dinner one night with 15" on the ground and a temp of -5. Deep, deep winter.

And it was definitely below zero for the 2nd/3rd January storm at PWM.

Yup, +SN at -5°F here as well

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not much has changed in my mind....relatively normal month with likelihood of significant coastal snows increasing as we approach Christmas and especially beyond into January. 

That should lead into winter's climax.

[CoastalWx]

Good luck getting the details right beyond a week out with that cutoff in Mexico. Models probably will have a few funky solutions.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good luck getting the details right beyond a week out with that cutoff in Mexico. Models probably will have a few funky solutions.

If at least some of it ejects with the northern stream that crosses the plains around 108-120 hours, then we get an event for Dec 5...if it hangs back like GFS/Euro, then we get nothing until a potential cutter on Dec 8-9 when it may eject with the deeper western trough...although the GFS sort of outran the western trough and gave us this weak event around 12/7 before a cutter behind it. Doubt it plays out like that though.

[Chrisrotary12]

Day 6 storm threat canceled I guess. Wagons west to Omaha for that sweet looking system around Day 8-9 on the Euro.  ~50-60 mb difference between the High and Low.

GFS is a touch further east and the GGEM is over Detroit.  But all three have it. 

Our time will come.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If at least some of it ejects with the northern stream that crosses the plains around 108-120 hours, then we get an event for Dec 5...if it hangs back like GFS/Euro, then we get nothing until a potential cutter on Dec 8-9 when it may eject with the deeper western trough.

Maybe the date of 12/5 can work its magic again.   

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Day 6 storm threat canceled I guess. Wagons west to Omaha for that sweet looking system around Day 8-9 on the Euro.  ~50-60 mb difference between the High and Low.

GFS is a touch further east and the GGEM is over Detroit.  But all three have it. 

Our time will come.

yeah i was just thinking about that three-in-the-bucket look - 

have to admit, the GEFs ensembles are flagging that system rather brightly too.  could be a biggy out there - need some continuity. but sometimes these more important type events come along with a bit of an unusually long lead suggestion because they carry a stronger than normal 'physical presence' in the atmosphere.  

a prof and i wants discussed how these big ones are like nodes in between multiple different mass fields - i've called this teleconnector convergence in the past.  interesting...

but as i was discussing with those guys earlier... the Dec 5 thing poofing isn't going to be a shocker to me.  could come back in some flatter(ish) paradigm, but i have issues with any kind of deeper latitude system so long as we persist with the present and modeled circulation theme.  

[Typhoon Tip]

thing is... not sure folks should pull the ignore-it trigger on the monday thing altogether either - 

like i said, there's room over the top of that semi-permanent se ridge for shallower systems.   nj model lows are like that, for example.  nov 1987(86?), dec 2005 ... you don't need to have a full latitude ordeal to claw some interesting weather out of a pattern.  

i know i know. most of the dystopian fun is imagining what can happen when looking at the model out in time ... so what does one do when the models won't give that show?  'magine a winter that had above normal snow and never had a good model preview - hahaha

anyway, as scott mentioned.. that s/w quasi-cut-off low gets opened up and ejected over the top of the se ridge - that's the gist of the monday impactor (or lack thereof...) and right now if there were five models you'd have five different ideas on that whole evolution.  

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

thing is... not sure folks should pull the ignore-it trigger on the monday thing altogether either - 

like i said, there's room over the top of that semi-permanent se ridge for shallower systems.   nj model lows are like that, for example.  nov 1987(86?), dec 2005 ... you don't need to have a full latitude ordeal to claw some interesting weather out of a pattern.  

i know i know. most of the dystopian fun is imagining what can happen when looking at the model out in time ... so what does one do when the models won't give that show?  'magine a winter that had above normal snow and never had a good model preview - hahaha

anyway, as scott mentioned.. that s/w quasi-cut-off low gets opened up and ejected over the top of the se ridge - that's the gist of the monday impactor (or lack thereof...) and right now if there were five models you'd have five different ideas on that whole evolution.  

Euro ens mean agrees with you

[MJO812]

Eps says to watch Monday

It gets really cold moving forward 

[ariof]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

And it was definitely below zero for the 2nd/3rd January storm at PWM.

And it was 56 and raining at KBOS three days later; then 5 straight days between 48 and 59 the next week. Deep winter --> deep spring pretty quick. Rest of the month was okay, but that January thaw/torch was killer. (Feb and Mar were good for NNE, not so good for coastal.)

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro ens mean agrees with you

Definitely shows a lot of uncertainty...big spread. Not surprising given the crucial factor is a deep cutoff trying to dig into Mexico. Those are never going to be modeled well.

 

In short, we shouldn't be surprised if there is nothing at all...or if an event of significance all of the sudden converges for us on the models within the next day or two.

[Dsnowx53]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wonder if this means the EPS loses the good pattern 11-15

 

The EPS was even better in the day 11-15 than last night. The Aleutian Ridge wavebreaking event sends a cutoff ridge north of Alaska and into the Arctic. If that happens with some east-based NAO ridging...watch out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Dsnowx53 said:

 

The EPS was even better in the day 11-15 than last night. The Aleutian Ridge wavebreaking event sends a cutoff ridge north of Alaska and into the Arctic. If that happens with some east-based NAO ridging...watch out. 

Yeah , it appears the op run is going to be off base with that look. Thankfully . Euro is really in a bad place right now. Hopefully they figure out what's wrong 

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah , it appears the op run is going to be off base with that look. Thankfully . Euro is really in a bad place right now. Hopefully they figure out what's wrong 

Hopefully they figure out what's wrong with a model in the day 7-10 range?  

That time frame is what the ensembles are for.  The OP runs of any model aren't going to be of much skill at that range.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hopefully they figure out what's wrong with a model in the day 7-10 range?  

That time frame is what the ensembles are for.  The OP runs of any model aren't going to be of much skill at that range.

It's struggling even in the day 4-6 range. Something is wrong with it.

[OceanStWx]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah , it appears the op run is going to be off base with that look. Thankfully . Euro is really in a bad place right now. Hopefully they figure out what's wrong 

 

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hopefully they figure out what's wrong with a model in the day 7-10 range?  

That time frame is what the ensembles are for.  The OP runs of any model aren't going to be of much skill at that range.

Never mind that for the last month, by most measures it has outdone the GFS. Not to mention Ukie holding up quite well. Hopefully they fix it fast...

That PRX down there, it's not labeled on NCEP's site (of course) but that's usually where they throw the parallel GFS. So if that's the case, color me intrigued, as there is some improvement at certain ranges.

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It's struggling even in the day 4-6 range. Something is wrong with it.

The NHem scores I just posted show the exact opposite.

[CoastalWx]

In my business, I could care less about 7-8 days out. Need performance inside 3 days where it matters. Especially within 36 hrs or less. Those little differences in temp and precip matter significantly.