December pattern/forecast thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Hoth said:

Was that the one where someone up near Cape Ann got crushed under an OES fluffbomb? Like 30" of pixie dust if I recall. That was a cool storm. 

Boxford/Topsfield area..

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I'm not excited right now

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, that settles it then.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that settles it then.

Maybe I'll eat these words, but I would feel pretty good for something(s) over these next 2-3 weeks at least. It think that's a look that could deliver a SWFE or two. If the east based -NAO happens..maybe even a miller B. I guess we will see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, I don't doubt it...but if it doesn't work out,  just don't be suprised or alarmed. All I mean.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't doubt it...but if it doesn't work out,  just don't be suprised or alarmed. All I mean.

Best not to get excited until Christmas week

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, lets revisit in a week or so.

[SnowHole413]

bottom line is there is an atmospheric shift upon us and it finally looks like we can have a decent December around here. Even in the valley I feel pretty optimistic after the 8th or so. 

[ORH_wxman]

If you are in the interior of SNE, your chances of a warning snowfall are greatly increased prior to Christmas vs the coastline. 

For ORH, 17 of the past 25 cold seasons have seen their first warning snowfall prior to Christmas. BOS by comparison has been 10 of the past 25. 

The pattern shown on the ensembles is very good. We should wait obviously as we get closer to see if the pattern materializes or trends worse, but as of now, I would feel cautiously optimistic after about 12/5. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why do you always hold onto any comment that can be remotely construed as something other than pro cold/snow for dear life?

Damn strange.

All I said was something to the effect that we may very well have to wait until around xmas time to see much in the way of snowfall...at least on the cp.

That is climo....the very same climo that you have been advocating for all autumn long.

Anyway, that is pretty realistic....even after one favorable day 10 euro run...which I don't care enough about to even venture a gander.

Lol wut, say wut. maybe you will gander at this

I have looked at the ENS and they are spectacular .  I am concerned you have more than once posted without looking at anything to fit your previous posts. Hey maybe look first. Climo is an average, climo also says it can snow before Christmas .  My post had zero to do with a non cold snowy post but lots to do withthe Euro Ens. Here's another one for ya

[40/70 Benchmark]

I made that post prior to the 12z suite, first of all. Secondly, the ensembles were forecasting deep winter in mid Novie, so I'll hold off on going against climo....which as Will very aptly reitterated, is iffy on the cp before xmas...as I have been saying.

Sounds like you have accused me of speaking out of turn in order to diffuse the fact that you made one of your classic, silly, thinly valed-passive aggresive references that few understand.

[CoastalWx]

Oner of the downfalls of cold plunging into the west and plains, is warmer wx on east coast. Might have to deal with that next week. Also, the euro seems like it took a step to the GFS next week at H5. It's slower and further SW than 12z. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Oner of the downfalls of cold plunging into the west and plains, is warmer wx on east coast. Might have to deal with that next week. Also, the euro seems like it took a step to the GFS next week at H5. It's slower and further SW than 12z. 

Yeah the euro ensembles basically turned 12/9-10 into a clipper that tracks through the St Lawrence river valley which means we torch one more time. Of course, that could change next run but it's a reminder that we shouldn't lock the deep winter rhetoric in until we get closer. The overall 11-15 though hasn't changed. It still looks very good. 

[weathafella]

I don't see the ensembles as spectacular.  They're decent but far from spectacular.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don't see the ensembles as spectacular.  They're decent but far from spectacular.

I think the 11-15 day still looks good as Will said.  The ensembles I thought looked pretty good overall. The ensembles can oscillate in the 11-15 day from MJO stuff. 

[weathafella]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think the 11-15 day still looks good as Will said.  The ensembles I thought looked pretty good overall. The ensembles can oscillate in the 11-15 day from MJO stuff. 

Good-decent, yes.  But spectacular?   Too many issues potentially with PNA as depicted although 11-15 that gets better.

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the 11-15 day still looks good as Will said.  The ensembles I thought looked pretty good overall. The ensembles can oscillate in the 11-15 day from MJO stuff. 

The 11 to 15 day range has been so bad this year it holds almost no weight.  Winter had been 10 days away from early November

[Hazey]

Just remember the last several Decembers have not been good so if this one lays an egg, it will be nothing new. At least it looks more active than previous ones.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Good-decent, yes.  But spectacular?   Too many issues potentially with PNA as depicted although 11-15 that gets better.

With troughs in the west, we always see the cold plunge cause a couple of cutters before it spreads east. Safer bet to hold off until after the 10th I think around here, although if we snuck in a SWFE near that time...it would not shock me.  Climo sucks before that, so I am perfectly fine with being patient. The source region will be nice and chilly so we'll be getting a nice check from the North Pole and have some money in the bank as we head through December.

[weathafella]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

With troughs in the west, we always see the cold plunge cause a couple of cutters before it spreads east. Safer bet to hold off until after the 10th I think around here, although if we snuck in a SWFE near that time...it would not shock me.  Climo sucks before that, so I am perfectly fine with being patient. The source region will be nice and chilly so we'll be getting a nice check from the North Pole and have some money in the bank as we head through December.

I agree.  I was commenting on some of the discussion which suggested it was better than it is.   Post 12/10 should be game on.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I agree.  I was commenting on some of the discussion which suggested it was better than it is.   Post 12/10 should be game on.

Well the usual weenies will always be that. 

[ORH_wxman]

Dec 5 looked pretty good on the ensembles for the interior...esp N of pike. But the OP sucked. We'll see if it can trend colder or if it just doesn't have enough antecedent airmass to be compelling for areas outside NNE. 

[Ginx snewx]

28 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I agree.  I was commenting on some of the discussion which suggested it was better than it is.   Post 12/10 should be game on.

Meaning post 12 8 day or 2 which has been the date since 11 25 most of us have keyed on. I was however busting on Ray a bit and using a Seinfeld reference. I agree with Scott and Will it's a good look

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well the usual weenies will always be that. 

I suppose we could play the waffle game and throw out caution flags to make it legit. 

 

It might be cold or it may not. Ya know tropical forcing and the MJO might or might not play a role but I will wait until the next model run comes out. I mean it looks good until it doesn't then when it doesn't I can say I told you so 

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I suppose we could play the waffle game and throw out caution flags to make it legit. 

 

It might be cold or it may not. Ya know tropical forcing and the MJO might or might not play a role but I will wait until the next model run comes out. I mean it looks good until it doesn't then when it doesn't I can say I told you so 

 

Go cold or go home. 

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Go cold or go home. 

Looks like rain for the coasts but interior ORH NCT near Kev has a shot next week, we step down. Wonderful news for skiers and winter weather sports enthusiasts, after this week winter returns robust

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looks like rain for the coasts but interior ORH NCT near Kev has a shot next week, we step down. Wonderful news for skiers and winter weather sports enthusiasts, after this week winter returns robust

Definitely ski areas for at least part of the events anyways. I don't think anything all snow can be locked in quite yet.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looks like rain for the coasts but interior ORH NCT near Kev has a shot next week, we step down. Wonderful news for skiers and winter weather sports enthusiasts, after this week winter returns robust

Nah.. I believe we lost whatever shot at snow and ice we had for next week. Yesterday we didn't see nearly as much cold plunging due south in the west. Overnight ENS trended deeper and south so it's gonna pump too much warmth into the NE next week. Even if something goes under us which it very well may. Only place to be the next 10 days for snow is NNH and far N Maine. It's going to be a painfully slow process to get the cold east of the Apps. It may take until Dec 15-20. I have no patience for it, but what else can you do 

[CoastalWx]

Ying and Yang.

Interior has a shot next week.

 

[J Paul Gordon]

Nice to see that some of us are starting with the "if I talk negative then the weather gods might get pissed off and give us snow to spite me". (The whole hubris-nemesis thing on a micro-scale).

Let's just remember last year. Seems like we are in the normal range of ups and downs. Its crazy to be locking anything in or out this early (especially after 12/5). Even that event may (or may not) give the interior snow. Or it might rain in ORH. Or the whole damn thing might disappear. Or give us snow/rain showers.  

 

So, guess it sounds like a pretty normal early December pattern.