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December pattern/forecast thread


weathafella

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Just speaking overall. Impressive. N Maine crushed again.

Some impressive isentropic lift there on that run everywhere as it lifts north...haha wow.  

Already dust off the "regardless of how high QPF gets, you forecast 6-10 if it moves through in less than 12 hours."  lol.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week could not be any more different on the models. The mother of all front enders on the euro. 

That's an odd looker ...

Definitely need to see that inside of D5, more so now than typical healthy doubt.

that solution just flat out looks like a mea culpa Euro bias run, with too much conserved trough digging over the E - meanwhile riding over the top of the SE ridge berm like that is hard to see happening. we'll see.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

FWIW the GGEM is def more toward euro for this Thursday in NNE.

Dec 5 is still pretty much clown range. Euro ensembles are pretty similar to the OP run but that doesn't mean a whole lot to me. 

oh ...i'm fully expecting a society hobbling cryospheric dystopian thriller for the sole reason that I just doubted anything at all -

 

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24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How's the snower on Dec.8 look on the ENS?

It's there in the ensembles. And by "there" I mean a weak sfc reflection moving south of us...no reason to expect anything notable on the ensemble mean at 11 days out. 

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I'm pretty optimistic about the period beyond Dec 5 or so. The ensembles really have a nice pattern for the northern tier. Obviously no guarantees as we are still at the whim of individual short waves and such, but the dice should be a bit more stacked in our favor should the long wave pattern come to fruition. 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm pretty optimistic about the period beyond Dec 5 or so. The ensembles really have a nice pattern for the northern tier. Obviously no guarantees as we are still at the whim of individual short waves and such, but the dice should be a bit more stacked in our favor should the long wave pattern come to fruition. 

Well as you saw, it looks pretty good....better than last several Decembers for sure. But the details TBD obviously.

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