TheSnowman Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Total Shocker Here. The measly 2.5" I have had this December is More than the past 2 Seasons, and 3rd out of the last 6 Decembers! Wow have we had some S*** Decembers recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just checked, and the last time PWM pulled off -25C at 850 mb was Valentine's Day. CON only managed 9 for a high, PWM 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 BOS 12, ORH 7, BDL kind of torchy on the Tarmac at 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 10:46 AM, OceanStWx said: BOS 12, ORH 7, BDL kind of torchy on the Tarmac at 10. Expand Kind of interesting in that we aren't going to get help from the sun, unlike mid Feb. Not that mid feb is strong solar influence, but moreso than now. Only thing down here, is that snow cover is limited. 850 temp so moderate a bit Friday, but it won't matter much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 10:59 AM, CoastalWx said: Kind of interesting in that we aren't going to get help from the sun, unlike mid Feb. Not that mid feb is strong solar influence, but moreso than now. Only thing down here, is that snow cover is limited. 850 temp so moderate a bit Friday, but it won't matter much. Expand Yeah, we have the snow up here, but we'll also downslope on the west winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Seems like all the good vibes yesterday afternoon after some improvements vanished this morning . Maybe one of those cycles where 00z sucks but 12z doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I don't see any change. When you are on the fence..anything goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 12:14 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't see any change. When you are on the fence..anything goes. Expand Gefs seem like they finally caved for the xmass torch? Hopefully this relaxation doesn't last long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I don't think the torch will be denied. I have questions about strength and duration but that's nit picking at the moment. What we should hope for is good timing. If we can get the torch in and out before Christmas or delay it until after the big day, we might be able to salvage a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Well I don't think you can say the 24 and 25 will be warm quite yet. But overall the pattern surrounding those days may not be ideal. Still early to iron out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 12:28 PM, CoastalWx said: Well I don't think you can say the 24 and 25 will be warm quite yet. But overall the pattern surrounding those days may not be ideal. Still early to iron out. Expand Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 12:28 PM, CoastalWx said: Well I don't think you can say the 24 and 25 will be warm quite yet. But overall the pattern surrounding those days may not be ideal. Still early to iron out.Some mood flakes wouldn't be too bad if we can get that to happen. Heck it can be 60's on Boxing Day and I wouldn't care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 It hasn't looked good for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 So how warm does it look like we get? Can't believe it...another year another torchmas. It's almost as if all the unfathomably complex weather phenomena revolve around my weenie-wishes and whomever is in control is purposefully squashing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Cohen's read at aer is interesting this week. late this month it seems he thinks we will have a sense of which direction this winter goes. He also talks about an NAO that could become more negative towards late year. Maybe that could save us. That or a sneaky Scooter high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 1:51 PM, mahk_webstah said: Cohen's read at aer is interesting this week. late this month it seems he thinks we will have a sense of which direction this winter goes. He also talks about an NAO that could become more negative towards late year. Maybe that could save us. That or a sneaky Scooter high. Expand that nao will arrive just in time...for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Oh Judah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 2:14 PM, CoastalWx said: Oh Judah. Expand Kind of overrated he is..NO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 2:14 PM, CoastalWx said: Oh Judah. Expand every winter predicting - ao - nao doesnt do it for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Well with that said Ventrice is saying NMME model showing POSSIBLE stormy January in northeast, hope ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I swear JB and Cohen give the same forecast every winter. Has anyone ever seen both of them in the same place at the same time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Personally, I wouldn't trust any model(Ensemble or Op or Climate) in the longer range. Scooter and others are correct with the volatility of these models lately. Things are very very changeable...so it's hard to get a grasp at what may Actually transpire going forward past 4-5 days in this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 2:47 PM, WinterWolf said: Personally, I wouldn't trust any model(Ensemble or Op or Climate) in the longer range. Scooter and others are correct with the volatility of these models lately. Things are very very changeable...so it's hard to get a grasp at what may Actually transpire going forward past 4-5 days in this set up. Expand agree. we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 The precursor signals for this winter IMO were strongly suggestive of a +AO/NAO couplet / low heights dominating the arctic. And current signalling from the Pacific will not help prospects for poleward ridging for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Weenies deflated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I wouldn't rule anything out. Even last years torch winter had the coldest outbreak in years(granted in a sea of warmth), and the biggest blizzard for some areas of the Mid Atlantic of all places, ever...NYC breaks there all time 24 hour snow record in that one. It isn't all doom and gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 It's not doom and gloom. There are signs that later in january we may rebuild the ridging again as the PAC jet weakens and even before then...it's not really a 2016 torch look. Just a -PNA/milder risk in east and southeast look. It could turn into wintry periods too...we just don't know. Sometimes you get these 7-10 day runs amid patterns that aren't pretty and those simply cannot be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I don't even care about a white Christmas...it would nice to just have some cold established for Christmas day. Haven't been able to burn a fire on Christmas day the past two years because it's just been to damn warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Can squeak out a storm even in a hostile environment. Just don't count on sustained snowpacks this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 4:19 PM, Hazey said: Can squeak out a storm even in a hostile environment. Just don't count on sustained snowpacks this season. Expand A bit of a stretch unless you have a magic model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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