weathafella Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 5:42 PM, CoastalWx said: GEFS really robust with that. But remember, storm tracks are not just decided by Ak ridging. SE ridge may flex too. But, if you want snow, gotta play with fire in December. Certainly better than seeing a black hole up there. Expand True. But it was among the better GEFS runs overall for us. Higher heights there and lower here. I'll run with that and take my chances any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 5:58 PM, weathafella said: True. But it was among the better GEFS runs overall for us. Higher heights there and lower here. I'll run with that and take my chances any day of the week. Expand I know...I'm just throwing it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Euro looks a bit better near and west of the river tomorrow night in CT. Probably gives Kevin an inch maybe verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Euro says maybe an inch or so tomorrow night/Wed morning...maybe a couple in Litchfield county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Is it a dam shame we can't utilize a low in that position. I can't recall anything like that, with a low in a position entering the Mid Atlantic...and then getting shredded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Now we watch meso trends . Bump up or down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 Decent start wrt chances considering the calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Can somebody let me know why 12/20 is the unanimous cutoff date for reliable pattern prognostication? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 LR Euro with a 484 PV sitting over Hudson Bay with insane cold in the Upper midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 7:15 PM, Ginx snewx said: LR Euro with a 484 PV sitting over Hudson Bay with insane cold in the Upper midwest Expand Love me some 400 thickness's over that area, They usually end up here in the Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 EPO on the Euro looks great The graphic from Wxbell has it crashing next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 6:11 PM, CoastalWx said: Is it a dam shame we can't utilize a low in that position. I can't recall anything like that, with a low in a position entering the Mid Atlantic...and then getting shredded. Expand Blame the se ridge......too fast, too furious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 5:33 PM, weathafella said: Nice to see GEFS even more robust with the ridging north of AK this run. Expand yeah...even more robust with the SE ridging too - ... i'm actually at a loss as to why the sucker won't come down. science fiction novelist in me wants to blame it on GW ... i mean it's frustrating, because the entire sub-tropical girdle of the hemisphere won't get off the summer high horse... folks don't seem like they are acknowledging what i'm talking about. either they don't care, or if usual...i have no idea how to explain it. anyway, it's amazing to see the incredible cold to warm thickness flip flops all the way through the run because of that interference pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 7:26 PM, Typhoon Tip said: yeah...even more robust with the SE ridging too - ... i'm actually at a loss as to why the sucker won't come down. science fiction novelist in me wants to blame it on GW ... i mean it's frustrating, because the entire sub-tropical girdle of the hemisphere won't get off the summer high horse... folks don't seem like they are acknowledging what i'm talking about. either they don't care, or if usual...i have no idea how to explain it. anyway, it's amazing to see the incredible cold to warm thickness flip flops all the way through the run because of that interference pattern. Expand I get it......it means a lot of great potential will be deconstructed to a degree in the mid range for the foreseeable future. Not uncommon in la nina seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 7:33 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I get it......it means a lot of great potential will be deconstructed in the mid range for the foreseeable future. Not uncommon in la nina seasons. Expand yeah, waste pretty much. is this a bona fide Nina though - last I heard the climate models and so forth was easing off the throttle on that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 7:43 PM, Typhoon Tip said: yeah, waste pretty much. is this a bona fide Nina though - last I heard the climate models and so forth was easing off the throttle on that... Expand Initially we had some el nino type forcing, but it has assumed more of a traditional la nina like configuration in the tropics. It is meager, though.....so hopefully that damn ridge will give some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 What it means is we get no cutters and instead plenty of nickel and dime events like today's and tomorrow nights. Most folks here welcome that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 7:58 PM, Damage In Tolland said: What it means is we get no cutters and instead plenty of nickel and dime events like today's and tomorrow nights. Most folks here welcome that . Expand We'll get a cutter or 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 8:06 PM, weathafella said: We'll get a cutter or 3. Expand Not in the current set up. Not till things change. And that's ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 8:08 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Not in the current set up. Not till things change. And that's ok Expand All guidance has one or more cutters in the next 10-12 days. If we're lucky it will just be fropas but my $$ is on at least one whopper with a few hours of 50s/60s and people throwing stuff around the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 8:15 PM, weathafella said: All guidance has one or more cutters in the next 10-12 days. If we're lucky it will just be fropas but my $$ is on at least one whopper with a few hours of 50s/60s and people throwing stuff around the house. Expand Most people understand that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 7:43 PM, Typhoon Tip said: yeah, waste pretty much. is this a bona fide Nina though - last I heard the climate models and so forth was easing off the throttle on that... Expand Nina is really lame right now. Unless it is expected to pop back up, I am skeptical of these forecasts with a mighty SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Ya it's not expected to pop back from what I've been reading....it's toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Anything coming out of the SW amplified is going to want to try and cut, Weak and progressive waves should provide some over running events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 8:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Most people understand that. Expand Deal with nickel and dimes winter. They're fun. No blockbusters. It's ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 8:20 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Deal with nickel and dimes winter. They're fun. No blockbusters. It's ok Expand Isn't that what you preached around 1/15/15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 8:22 PM, weathafella said: Isn't that what you preached around 1/15/15? Expand Some are inclined to interject themselves into every exchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just because Nina is weak, doesn't mean a SE ridge cannot be stout. December 1990 had a monster SE ridge...neutral ENSO year. There's other examples too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 It was. Way to early to call the winter season all nickel and dimes in the beginning of December however....I hope that's not what he was meaning?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 8:22 PM, weathafella said: Isn't that what you preached around 1/15/15? Expand Doesn't mean somewhere along the east coast can't get a big one. You're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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