weathafella Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Looks active with snow chances at least in the first half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 All models have troughing in the SW US. The Pacific varies with the GEM having ridging south of Anchorage and ridging into Greenland, while the others have some ridging into NW Canada (albeit weak) and some leftover higher heights near and just east of Hudson Bay. I get the sense of a gradient like pattern finally developing. However impossible to determine of its congrats us or congrats MSP. I do like the active look and this beats a NAMR blowtorch any day, but do expect the risk for cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2016 Author Share Posted November 21, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All models have troughing in the SW US. The Pacific varies with the GEM having ridging south of Anchorage and ridging into Greenland, while the others have some ridging into NW Canada (albeit weak) and some leftover higher heights near and just east of Hudson Bay. I get the sense of a gradient like pattern finally developing. However impossible to determine of its congrats us or congrats MSP. I do like the active look and this beats a NAMR blowtorch any day, but do expect the risk for cutters. Speaking of gradients-let's channel December 1970. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All models have troughing in the SW US. The Pacific varies with the GEM having ridging south of Anchorage and ridging into Greenland, while the others have some ridging into NW Canada (albeit weak) and some leftover higher heights near and just east of Hudson Bay. I get the sense of a gradient like pattern finally developing. However impossible to determine of its congrats us or congrats MSP. I do like the active look and this beats a NAMR blowtorch any day, but do expect the risk for cutters. Sign me up for rain over the qpf-tease of the past several years. That sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Looks fugly to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Potential for cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 You guys are weenies, Jesus. I said this risk yesterday. Stop being ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Same comments and fear every year. There's always a risk of systems not tracking the way we need them to. At least we have some action incoming it seems...which is a change from the Tranquil, sunny, warm 60's and 70's of the last 6 months. Ill take cutters and Rain for the next two to three weeks...man we need the moisture in any form. Bring on the Precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 The moaning will end when the first "cutter" to become a coastal happens--as it does on a more than infrequent basis. Winter is coming. I'm psyched. This early on anything is a gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Our sh*t winters usually start with a sh*t December for NAMR. I don't see that. Nothing wrong with a deep trough in the SW US at this time. I'd rather see that, compared to a black hole from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Any analogs for December (and winter) based on this year's set up so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 This looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This looks good Yeah now someone start the Delorean and set it to 2 months ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 What does October Tele's have to do with now??? Am I missing something??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What does October Tele's have to do with now??? Am I missing something??? He posted the wrong map but yea this works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: He posted the wrong map but yea this works I had the right one but when I uploaded it here, it showed October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 The following recent winters had torching cutters in early December: 2014-2015, 2013-2014, 2012-2013, 2010-2011, 2008-2009..... I won't keep going, but it's not abnormal and it's not some "sign" that winter is going to suck if we get one....if you want to b**ch about cutters anyway, go do it in the banter thread. There will likely be chances for winter wx though with a pretty strong -NAO with the blocking centered over NE Canada through the early part of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 You guys are weenies, Jesus. I said this risk yesterday. Stop being ridiculous.So we are weenies, but you posting it yesterday doesn't make you a weenie? That's super weenie material.I was looking at the ensembles anyway, not some 300 hour GFS OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The following recent winters had torching cutters in early December: 2014-2015, 2013-2014, 2012-2013, 2010-2011, 2008-2009..... I won't keep going, but it's not abnormal and it's not some "sign" that winter is going to suck if we get one....if you want to b**ch about cutters anyway, go do it in the banter thread. There will likely be chances for winter wx though with a pretty strong -NAO with the blocking centered over NE Canada through the early part of the month. None of those were bad winters in ORH... quite the contrary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said: None of those were bad winters in ORH... quite the contrary Yeah that was on purpose... Anyways, despite a cutterish look around the 1st, there is still plenty of potential behind that system for winter events. We could also get another cutter, but that's the game this far out and in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Yup the blocking is there. My hunch is there's some swfe's and maybe a redeveloper or 2 mixed in with a screamer. Lots of variance but there are some def snow threats over next few weeks. Should also remind weenies.. the Tgiving storm at one time was modeled as Torchgiving screamer. Now many of us in SNE will lay an inch or 2 down early morning followed by a bit of icing and spending the day in the low- mid 30's. So moral is.. take anything past day 6 with suspiciousness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that was on purpose... Anyways, despite a cutterish look around the 1st, there is still plenty of potential behind that system for winter events. We could also get another cutter, but that's the game this far out and in this pattern. It's really not even that far off either. The EPS is showing strong signals of secondary redevelopment with that system. I'm just not sure we'll have enough cold to save everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 1 hour ago, JC-CT said: So we are weenies, but you posting it yesterday doesn't make you a weenie? That's super weenie material. I was looking at the ensembles anyway, not some 300 hour GFS OP run. Huh? I mentioned the chance due to the hemispheric pattern. It was also meant to limit the wrist slitters from coming out when one was modeled, but I should have known better. I see nothing wrong with the pattern coming up. Aside from any cutters..I think we should watch out for any relevant miller B or SWFE style system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Huh? I mentioned the chance due to the hemispheric pattern. It was also meant to limit the wrist slitters from coming out when one was modeled, but I should have known better. I see nothing wrong with the pattern coming up. Aside from any cutters..I think we should watch out for any relevant miller B or SWFE style system as well. I wasn't slitting my wrist you weenie. I didn't think a trough over the midwest on the ensembles is a great look for us this early in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The following recent winters had torching cutters in early December: 2014-2015, 2013-2014, 2012-2013, 2010-2011, 2008-2009..... I won't keep going, but it's not abnormal and it's not some "sign" that winter is going to suck if we get one....if you want to b**ch about cutters anyway, go do it in the banter thread. There will likely be chances for winter wx though with a pretty strong -NAO with the blocking centered over NE Canada through the early part of the month. Those winters were decent to great down here in NYC. I take a few cutters if it'll lead to a winter similar to 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 On average, don't we tend to get more cutters through maybe mid December. Lots of Upper Plains blizzards this time of year, and as the cold air starts to seasonally shift south our chances increase. Then by mid January, the risk of suppressed storms increases and then everything starts to work it's way back north for the spring. Models seem to be putting out pretty typical storm tracks for this year. Gotta get some good arctic air to the north so we can cash in on some SW flow events and force some wanna be cutters to redevelop to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 8 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I wasn't slitting my wrist you weenie. I didn't think a trough over the midwest on the ensembles is a great look for us this early in the year. Overall I see nothing wrong with the pattern unless you want an all out snow blitz right away. This is slowly becoming a nina look with ridging near dateline and cold push focused out west first. If we can get a decent Pacific and some -NAo ridging...that's a great thing for us. Right now there are elements of both things, but the timing would need to work out. When I look at the broad picture for NAMR, I actually like the evolution shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The following recent winters had torching cutters in early December: 2014-2015, 2013-2014, 2012-2013, 2010-2011, 2008-2009..... I won't keep going, but it's not abnormal and it's not some "sign" that winter is going to suck if we get one....if you want to b**ch about cutters anyway, go do it in the banter thread. In my area, every early December 2008 on had at least one torch-deluge, except 2009 and 09-10 is a hissing and a byword among Maine weenies. I like our chances this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2016 Author Share Posted November 22, 2016 Long range eps getting colder. Patience everyone. Last year we torched thanksgiving weekend. Not this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 24 minutes ago, weathafella said: Long range eps getting colder. Patience everyone. Last year we torched thanksgiving weekend. Not this year. This year we white the bird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.