Hoosier Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 5 hours ago, buckeye said: I've been skimming around the different forums and reading from other forecasters that the brutal cold in Alaska and W.Canada means katy-bar-the-door for not only the central states, but us folks further east. Really??? Maybe a met or 2 can chime in here but in my many weenie years of following weather, (and admittedly anecdotal), a brutal cold Alaska and W.Canada usually translates into winter purgatory for us folks from the OV on east...if not from the miss river on east. Am I wrong? Once that source is established, it's hard to keep it bottled up there indefinitely. The question is how favorable the pattern will be in the east to allow for persistent cold. I said it before but I'd rather be in our region than most of the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 Word is that the ECMWF is going to be late due to a power failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 So far the GFS has lost the system, and the GEM still has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 I really think this storm will not produce IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 The Euro is in and it says 'hold your horses'. Everything is very similar to yesterday's 12z, blowing up a biggie for the upper midwest, but a bit southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Euro still has the 12/8 storm as of today's 12z run. Sitting right between Kohler, WI and Ludington, MI at 168 and weighing in at 982 mb. Quite a bit east for my taste but at least the storm is still there. A lot of uncertainty as the pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Euro looks to move into Michigan then jump into Canada. Interesting run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 27 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: I really think this storm will not produce IMBY. I don't have much hope here either, at least for a significant snow. We're probably gonna need a really strung out/late developing system but that would likely keep amounts in check anyway. Hopefully somebody gets hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 12z euro snowfall: Highest synoptic snow in a swath that curves from Kansas City up through the Quad Cities and North through Central WI and the UP. Amounts are in the 10 inch range for most areas further South, ~18 inches for Central WI and 30+ inches in parts of the UP, lower in the Keweenaw but Houghton still gets ~20 inches. Western Michigan and Southern Ontario directly East of the lakes get 10-12 from lake effect, but SE Michigan, SW Ontario, and Northern Ohio get dry-slotted big time and the only snow is what trails the initial front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 18Z GFS still has no where near the same caliber of system as the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 MPX in their afternoon disco says 'nothing major happening in MN/WI' next week based on model trends. What trends? Kinda amateur hour considering there are numerous pieces of energy at play and no model consistency yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 14 minutes ago, Chitown Storm said: MPX in their afternoon disco says 'nothing major happening in MN/WI' next week based on model trends. What trends? Kinda amateur hour considering there are numerous pieces of energy at play and no model consistency yet. Yeah that seems a bit premature considering the overall synoptic setup is prime for a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 16 minutes ago, Chitown Storm said: MPX in their afternoon disco says 'nothing major happening in MN/WI' next week based on model trends. What trends? Kinda amateur hour considering there are numerous pieces of energy at play and no model consistency yet. Just like how DVN went all-in on the euro solution, wouldn't do that because its been almost as bad as the GFS. Didn't even mention the main model, only the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 Quite a few of the 18z GEFS members were stronger/farther northwest than the op run with the early week storm, so it will be interesting to see if it trends that way. I'm not sure it necessarily has a negative impact on what happens after... that early week setup is actually a relatively small thermal adjustment away from producing a band of paste of the northwest edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The 0Z GFS continues to have no major system on the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The trough and associated energy look much better at hour 120 though. It's enough to induce low level cyclogenesis now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 It seems like the models continue to trend stronger with the arctic air after it leaves the west. Interesting too that the ensembles show it hanging around for at least a week (not arctic eventually, but BN anoms). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Day 10(hour 240) looks pretty fun on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 30 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Day 10(hour 240) looks pretty fun on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 0Z Euro REALLY gets the cold air south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Euro still has a storm, but a move toward a more positively tilted trough causes the storm to be weaker and track farther southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 Positive tilt/late developer is probably the best case scenario if you're east of about 90W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 DVN seems pretty optimistic about the storm next week. Mentions potential for 6+" of snow. Wednesday and Thursday...all trends support a moderate to possibly very strong storm system to eject near or over the region. Local track analogs suggest risk of several inches to well over 6 inches of snow over much of the region before system moves northeast by late Thursday is very possible and will be better known next 24 to 36 hours. Local techniques also suggest 20 to 40+ MPH winds by Thursday as low moves east with temperatures staying at or below freezing for the precipitation event with teens or single digits by Thursday and especially Thursday night. Will emphasize the possible significant snow event in HWO product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Can always count on DVN to jump on the hype train. LOT's actually saying we may get some accumulation on the Sunday morning wave. Maybe a mood setter for some Christmas shopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The GFS has trended toward a very unfavorable flow for any kind of storm next week. It is no longer digging the western energy at all, and it has a massive upper low centered over far southern Canada that dominates the pattern. So, we get a big surge of cold, but no storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 22 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The GFS has trended toward a very unfavorable flow for any kind of storm next week. It is no longer digging the western energy at all, and it has a massive upper low centered over far southern Canada that dominates the pattern. So, we get a big surge of cold, but no storm. This would be the worst. Dry, boring, arctic air. Hopefully the system still shows signs of life on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The 12z GEM wasn't any better than the GFS. Cold, dry and boring. Watch the Euro come out with a monster just to keep it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The Euro just caved to the GFS, crushing the storm potential with a greatly increased Canada low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The Euro just caved to the GFS, crushing the storm potential with a greatly increased Canada low. That thing has become a pain for this setup. Your post from a couple hours ago pretty much sums things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 Based on 500 mb, I think the 00z GFS may make a small incremental improvement for midweek (key words). Probably still won't amount to much verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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