Hoosier Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 15 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z GFS came in stronger. Still looking interesting! Now to see the GEM and Euro! Edit: GEM's pretty weak sauce. GEM is still pretty significant...the fact that it has a storm is really what matters at this point. Also has some light snow this weekend with the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 21 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z GFS came in stronger. Still looking interesting! Now to see the GEM and Euro! Edit: GEM's pretty weak sauce. might be weaker in MSLP but those projected snow totals... Never good to be in the jackpot at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 10 hours ago, Hoosier said: Euro has near 80 kts in the CCB. lol Was just looking at this. Wow Euro had 80-90mph surface gusts in east NE, west IA, with 50-60mph sustained winds. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Was just looking at this. Wow Euro had 80-90mph surface gusts in east NE, west IA, with 50-60mph sustained winds. LOL. Holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Holy crap Yep, has a loli of 62mph sustained, gusting to 88mph northwest of Omaha. Can't remember seeing winds that strong at the surface on any model for a non-tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yep, has a loli of 62mph sustained, gusting to 88mph northwest of Omaha. Can't remember seeing winds that strong at the surface on any model for a non-tropical system. I'd be excited but probably a little scared if something like that was progged around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 00z Euro is really trying with that weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Oy.... the 00z Euro went all in on the northern stream and neutered the southern energy. Massive blizzard to bupkes one run. Nice consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 And The King loses the system by going way north. Not to say this wasn't expected, were still in weenie range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Easy come easy go. This is what happens when the only thing to watch continues to remain 8+ days out. The signal for the strong arctic intrusion seems to be pretty consistent by all models later next week, so hopefully we can spin up something in that time frame as models have sometimes indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 The GRR NWS is now looking at a potential pattern change that several members have been talking about for some time now. The is from today’s discussion WEEK TWO (WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) A CHANGE TOWARD A MORE PERSISTENTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD LAST INTO THE NEW YEAR. THE MOSTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SINCE LAST SEPTEMBER (2015) IS ABOUT TO COME TO AN END. THIS CHANGE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IN FACT THE LATEST LONG RANGE ECMWF (28TH OF NOVEMBER) SHOWS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS BELOW FREEZING) CONTINUING INTO MID JANUARY. PART OF THE REASON FOR THIS CHANGE IS THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FOR THE MOST PART MOST OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN, EVEN NORTH TO ALASKA HAS BEEN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE SUMMER INTO MID FALL. SINCE OCTOBER, MOST OF NORTHERN ASIA HAS BEEN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH UNUSABLY LARGE AMOUNTS SNOW COVER, WHICH AS PERSISTED THROUGH NOVEMBER. THAT COLD AIR OVER NORTHERN ASIA HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT COOLING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN NORTH OF 35N, FROM THE ASIAN COAST NEARLY TO THE WEST COST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS COOLING COUPLED WITH THE DEVELOPING WEAK LA NINA WILL RESULT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL FAVOR A TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FROM MID DECEMBER INTO AT LEAST EARLY JANUARY (AS SEEN ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST FOR 500 HEIGHT AND 850 TEMPERATURES). IT IS THAT PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL BRING US THE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED A SIGNIFICANT STORM EVENT DURING THE LATE NEXT WEEK ( THU- FRI). IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO SUGGEST IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM BUT IT IS TYPICAL TO HAVE A MAJOR STORM AHEAD OF A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL WAVE PATTERN CHANGE. IT WOULD SEEM TO ME IF THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN CHANGE DOES OCCUR WE WILL BE SEEING LAKEEFFECT SNOWS ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING STARTING ON THE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW THIS PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 Wild evolution in the 12z GGEM for next week. Low tracks into our area, then a secondary pops farther east and runs inland, deepening to 950 mb just north of the NY/Canada border. I'd put very low odds on that verifying lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 Sig changes on the Euro compared to 00z. Should get a storm this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 12Z Euro deepens over Wisconsin again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 The low on the 12z Euro zips from OK to SW WI, then takes its time moving to N MI Not quite as deep as yesterday's 12z, but not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 18Z GFS came south. Model madness continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 South, and more noticeably much farther west. What a storm for SD and MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 Not really worth much discussion but the GFS is advertising one of those scenarios where the cold air crashes in quickly as the low occludes. Sometimes it can snow pretty good for an hour or two as the cold air catches up to the departing precip, offering small consolation for those missing out on the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 0Z GFS South and East and much more of a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Radical changes continue on the GFS. First, the initial piece of energy moving up from Texas through the Ohio Valley is more robust on the 00z run. Second, this run has suddenly added a big upper low over southern Canada where there was nothing the previous two runs today. The main system now ejects eastward, weak and flat compared to previous runs. 00z UK has no upper low over southern Manitoba, so it would likely turn left and hit areas to the nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 GEM has a much more interesting solution than the GFS to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 GEM doesn't make any sense to me, it moves north thru Iowa into Minnesota, okay.. fine, then it sags SE while deepening into IL? I thought that was strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 lol, the GEM is a useless model. I think even JMA is outscoring it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 31 minutes ago, Maxim said: lol, the GEM is a useless model. I think even JMA is outscoring it now. I barely look at the GEM anymore. Seems to always need to play catch-up to the other globals. Models continue to be all over the place with the main system later next week, but at least the major arctic push continues to be relatively consistent. Should definitely be an opportunity to spin up something nice along it's leading edge, but the timing of the various shortwaves traversing the advancing baroclinic zone will take some time for the guidance to nail down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 1 hour ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: GEM doesn't make any sense to me, it moves north thru Iowa into Minnesota, okay.. fine, then it sags SE while deepening into IL? I thought that was strange. You can sort of see why that happens by looking at 500 mb. There's a lot of energy rounding the base of the trough so as the original surface low occludes, a new one rapidly develops farther southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 00z Euro looking fairly aggressive with the old cutoff low at 120 hrs. Upstream looks favorable though for the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 The Euro at 192 gets down to 978mb, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 Surface map is a bit "messy" at 168 but it really explodes after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 I've been skimming around the different forums and reading from other forecasters that the brutal cold in Alaska and W.Canada means katy-bar-the-door for not only the central states, but us folks further east. Really??? Maybe a met or 2 can chime in here but in my many weenie years of following weather, (and admittedly anecdotal), a brutal cold Alaska and W.Canada usually translates into winter purgatory for us folks from the OV on east...if not from the miss river on east. Am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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