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Winter 2016-2017 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier

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20 hours ago, Chinook said:

So I saw Raindance (from New Mexico) post this sort of plot in the Mountain West thread. What do you even do with 4 plots of a CFS monthly snow accumulation? Take a guess at the likely storm track for the month? Read every plot literally? What if one run of the CFS has a snowstorm that is halfway thru the US on Dec 31st at 11:59PM?

I have taken my post showing the CFS down. I apologize for the mistake. All I was trying to get at is the overall pattern for more winter like weather in December...

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GEFS still supporting the idea of a strong Aleutian Ridge which sends Arctic Air down towards Western Canada, with transient cold shots in the East. Looks more like a typical La Nina pattern with the jet-stream positioning and SE ridge. The overall pattern still supports an active storm track which could favour our region around mid December. However, any storm track in the medium to long range should be taken with a grain of salt, for now.

Lets see! 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The day 8-10 GFS storm is as weenie as it gets..... 2 ft of snow, blizzard, sub-zero temps.  It's still way too far out for the models to know how the various pieces of energy will interact, though.  If the southern energy dives farther south and breaks off, you get nothing.

Encouraging though that GFS, CMC, and Euro all showing something. There's always winners and losers though.

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10 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The 12Z Euro would be brutal, cuts from Wisconsin down to Michigan with ridiculously high winds

 

Both the GFS and Euro show a very powerful storm. Euro is just a bit west of the GFS. The storm that will impact us on Dec. 4-6 could certainly play a big role in the track of this one. 

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5 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

18Z GFS still has the storm as expected

lol 18z GFS still tossing around 18" totals, too bad it's in fantasy land still, at least something to keep an eye on though in an otherwise boring start to the season :D lol 18z GFS actually got the low down to 966mb in ne ontario this run...

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4 minutes ago, smoof said:

lol 18z GFS still tossing around 18" totals, too bad it's in fantasy land still, at least something to keep an eye on though in an otherwise boring start to the season :D

Not sure 8 days out is really fantasy land, not to mention all global models are showing a storm of similar intensity. This storm looks almost guaranteed already, just a matter of who gets walloped. 

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19 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

Not sure 8 days out is really fantasy land, not to mention all global models are showing a storm of similar intensity. This storm looks almost guaranteed already, just a matter of who gets walloped. 

It's subjective but I'd still call that fantasy land.  The general model agreement on a big storm is nice but it doesn't mean it can't get screwed up somehow.

 

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6 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The day 8-10 GFS storm is as weenie as it gets..... 2 ft of snow, blizzard, sub-zero temps.  It's still way too far out for the models to know how the various pieces of energy will interact, though.  If the southern energy dives farther south and breaks off, you get nothing.

Or if it comes out in pieces instead of one large piece.  That being said, the 12z was wallpaper material for you lol.  Nice to see the pattern getting active again.  

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2 hours ago, LoveSN+ said:

Not sure 8 days out is really fantasy land, not to mention all global models are showing a storm of similar intensity. This storm looks almost guaranteed already, just a matter of who gets walloped. 

Storms depicted 15 days out, often verify in almost the same position and nearly the same strength. This ain't your daddy's GFS anymore.

Alek was laughing about my interest in the Nov 18th storm around Nov 5th. It hit within a 150 miles of where the GFS had it on the 5th. Spots in Minnesota received nearly 18 inches. It was close to the UP, just not close enough. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

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18 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Storms depicted 15 days out, often verify in almost the same position and nearly the same strength. This ain't your daddy's GFS anymore.

Alek was laughing about my interest in the Nov 18th storm around Nov 5th. It hit within a 150 miles of where the GFS had it on the 5th. Spots in Minnesota received nearly 18 inches. It was close to the UP, just not close enough. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

Of course it does. If it moves around so much every run, its bound to be in the correct position at least one of the runs, regardless of the other 8 runs that were wrong. But hey, it got it right that one run.

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2 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Of course it does. If it moves around so much every run, its bound to be in the correct position at least one of the runs, regardless of the other 8 runs that were wrong. But hey, it got it right that one run.

The storm for next Thursday has been over central Michigan the majority of runs over the last few days. Earlier it shifted way NW, but it's back south again. 

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