Long Hard Winter Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 18 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Hello Euro! Wow! That is about as pretty as it gets And more cold and systems to follow. Is this the new Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 20 hours ago, Chinook said: So I saw Raindance (from New Mexico) post this sort of plot in the Mountain West thread. What do you even do with 4 plots of a CFS monthly snow accumulation? Take a guess at the likely storm track for the month? Read every plot literally? What if one run of the CFS has a snowstorm that is halfway thru the US on Dec 31st at 11:59PM? I have taken my post showing the CFS down. I apologize for the mistake. All I was trying to get at is the overall pattern for more winter like weather in December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 12z GFS = good 18z GFS = bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Jonger said: 12z GFS = good 18z GFS = bad Euro Weeklies = Great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 GEFS still supporting the idea of a strong Aleutian Ridge which sends Arctic Air down towards Western Canada, with transient cold shots in the East. Looks more like a typical La Nina pattern with the jet-stream positioning and SE ridge. The overall pattern still supports an active storm track which could favour our region around mid December. However, any storm track in the medium to long range should be taken with a grain of salt, for now. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 00z Euro may still have something next weekend, but it looks like it trended a little more cutoff. Wouldn't want to see that continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Northern stream a tad too fast and southern stream a little too slow but still the most agressive model. Which means the srn wave can't fully eject out and go neg tilt as phasing occurs with northern stream like previous runs have shown. 995mb up into central OH on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 The day 10 storm is back on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 December 8/9 is looking increasingly likely for a major storm. 12z GFS had 2 feet of snow for central to ne IA into sw WI and the 12z GGEM was more south east and had a foot in central MO and 6-12 through central IL into northern IN and southern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 The day 8-10 GFS storm is as weenie as it gets..... 2 ft of snow, blizzard, sub-zero temps. It's still way too far out for the models to know how the various pieces of energy will interact, though. If the southern energy dives farther south and breaks off, you get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The day 8-10 GFS storm is as weenie as it gets..... 2 ft of snow, blizzard, sub-zero temps. It's still way too far out for the models to know how the various pieces of energy will interact, though. If the southern energy dives farther south and breaks off, you get nothing. Encouraging though that GFS, CMC, and Euro all showing something. There's always winners and losers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 Nice to see you Alek! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 12Z Euro bombs over Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Sometimes I wonder if we should have a northwoods storm discussion. Bo, Will and myself are tractor beaming this to the UP and I know that upsets most of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 The 12Z Euro would be brutal, cuts from Wisconsin down to Michigan with ridiculously high winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 10 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: The 12Z Euro would be brutal, cuts from Wisconsin down to Michigan with ridiculously high winds Both the GFS and Euro show a very powerful storm. Euro is just a bit west of the GFS. The storm that will impact us on Dec. 4-6 could certainly play a big role in the track of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 Euro has near 80 kts in the CCB. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 978mb as it enters the U.P. Parts of IA and MN blown off the map after 20-30" of snow. Pure weenie run. Fun to look at, hard to believe. But more importantly, something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 18Z GFS still has the storm as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 5 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 18Z GFS still has the storm as expected lol 18z GFS still tossing around 18" totals, too bad it's in fantasy land still, at least something to keep an eye on though in an otherwise boring start to the season lol 18z GFS actually got the low down to 966mb in ne ontario this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, smoof said: lol 18z GFS still tossing around 18" totals, too bad it's in fantasy land still, at least something to keep an eye on though in an otherwise boring start to the season Not sure 8 days out is really fantasy land, not to mention all global models are showing a storm of similar intensity. This storm looks almost guaranteed already, just a matter of who gets walloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 19 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Not sure 8 days out is really fantasy land, not to mention all global models are showing a storm of similar intensity. This storm looks almost guaranteed already, just a matter of who gets walloped. It's subjective but I'd still call that fantasy land. The general model agreement on a big storm is nice but it doesn't mean it can't get screwed up somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 Impressive run nonetheless. Rapid deepening/bombing and a 60+ mb gradient with the high to the west...that is Katy bar the door time if it trends much deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 6 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: The day 8-10 GFS storm is as weenie as it gets..... 2 ft of snow, blizzard, sub-zero temps. It's still way too far out for the models to know how the various pieces of energy will interact, though. If the southern energy dives farther south and breaks off, you get nothing. Or if it comes out in pieces instead of one large piece. That being said, the 12z was wallpaper material for you lol. Nice to see the pattern getting active again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 2 hours ago, LoveSN+ said: Not sure 8 days out is really fantasy land, not to mention all global models are showing a storm of similar intensity. This storm looks almost guaranteed already, just a matter of who gets walloped. Storms depicted 15 days out, often verify in almost the same position and nearly the same strength. This ain't your daddy's GFS anymore. Alek was laughing about my interest in the Nov 18th storm around Nov 5th. It hit within a 150 miles of where the GFS had it on the 5th. Spots in Minnesota received nearly 18 inches. It was close to the UP, just not close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 18 minutes ago, Jonger said: Storms depicted 15 days out, often verify in almost the same position and nearly the same strength. This ain't your daddy's GFS anymore. Alek was laughing about my interest in the Nov 18th storm around Nov 5th. It hit within a 150 miles of where the GFS had it on the 5th. Spots in Minnesota received nearly 18 inches. It was close to the UP, just not close enough. Of course it does. If it moves around so much every run, its bound to be in the correct position at least one of the runs, regardless of the other 8 runs that were wrong. But hey, it got it right that one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 NAM might be clowning around but it looks fairly quick to eject the southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 0Z GFS came in stronger. Still looking interesting! Now to see the GEM and Euro! Edit: GEM's pretty weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 2 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Of course it does. If it moves around so much every run, its bound to be in the correct position at least one of the runs, regardless of the other 8 runs that were wrong. But hey, it got it right that one run. The storm for next Thursday has been over central Michigan the majority of runs over the last few days. Earlier it shifted way NW, but it's back south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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