weatherbo Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 On 1/17/2017 at 4:24 PM, Snowstorms said: Repost from Ben Noll via Twitter: POAMA snow anomaly map for February: Would be a complete disaster if this came to fruition. Bump! So how did this play out for everyone in the sub-forum? Looks like it busted for New England and the NE, due to an active storm track earlier in the month. It busted for YYZ as it will finish within 2-2.5" of average. Garbage month again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Some more winter weather facts about the winter of 2016-2017 and past winters for CMI: Warmest February on record in 129 years. Average temp was 40.8 degrees, nearly 12 degrees above normal. Only 3 subzero readings all winter. CMI officially recorded 6.1" of snowfall during met winter. The winter of 72-73 had just 2.3" holy cow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 Really? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 That storm was rain in Hearst Ontario on yesterday's 06Z GFS run. I'm happy to see this. Let's end the Chicago drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 34 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Really? Really? 12z GGEM is farther south than this FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Really? Really? We both know that will be hitting the UP by the time next weekend rolls around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: We both know that will be hitting the UP by the time next weekend rolls around. Models are clueless right now, but it has actually been trending south, not north, at this point. Anything is on the table from the U.P. to the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Just now, michsnowfreak said: Models are clueless right now, but it has actually been trending south, not north, at this point. Anything is on the table from the U.P. to the OV. I don't consider the models clueless, the only thing in play is a warm front and it has been wavering back and forth. When it comes down to it the WAA will win out and this will be in the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 55 minutes ago, Stebo said: We both know that will be hitting the UP by the time next weekend rolls around. That's been the trend. It will break eventually, whether it's next weekend or next December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 56 minutes ago, Stebo said: We both know that will be hitting the UP and drier by the time next weekend rolls around. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 That's a brutal airmass for this time of year into New England on the ECMWF... next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 We've seen some model fits lately. Originally it was the GFS that had a colder look overall in the mid/long range compared to the ECMWF. Now it's the ECMWF with a colder look overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 54 minutes ago, Stebo said: I don't consider the models clueless, the only thing in play is a warm front and it has been wavering back and forth. When it comes down to it the WAA will win out and this will be in the UP. I'm fine with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, IWXwx said: FYP Good edit, very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That's a brutal airmass for this time of year into New England on the ECMWF... next weekend. It's sitting over Ontario next weekend, I'll be there. I'm prepping for sub zero highs potentially. It's not the first time I have experienced it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Stebo said: I don't consider the models clueless, the only thing in play is a warm front and it has been wavering back and forth. When it comes down to it the WAA will win out and this will be in the UP. The models overall have been flip flopping like crazy. Kinda expected but still. Posted early from a forecast discussion in IN. "Safe to say the winter pattern looks to continue with alternating periods of warm and cold for the foreseeable future. No reason to deviate from consensus Superblend temps and PoPs for now. Trend is your friend when models change like a feather in the wind." The UP may get it but I still feel we are very much in play. Tons of run to run changes coming up I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Stebo said: We both know that will be hitting the UP by the time next weekend rolls around. meanshile the euro's version cuts south of all of us and is a snowstorm for s.VA and n.NC edit: and the euro ens appears even more suppressed than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 I'll be gone during this time period, so book a massive east-west snowstorm across the majority of the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 hour ago, buckeye said: meanshile the euro's version cuts south of all of us and is a snowstorm for s.VA and n.NC edit: and the euro ens appears even more suppressed than that I mean that totally makes sense in a -PNA/+AO/+NAO regime which isn't changing by then either. Needless to say I'll believe it when I see flakes flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 26 minutes ago, Stebo said: I mean that totally makes sense in a -PNA/+AO/+NAO regime which isn't changing by then either. Needless to say I'll believe it when I see flakes flying. We might have a near neutral NAO by then if you believe the progs. Also, lots of volatility with the AO but it at least appears like it will be trending downward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: That's been the trend. It will break eventually, whether it's next weekend or next December. Next December, maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Stebo said: I mean that totally makes sense in a -PNA/+AO/+NAO regime which isn't changing by then either. Needless to say I'll believe it when I see flakes flying. true, however it seems nothing has made sense this whole year. I've given up on looking at the indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 What +NAO are you guys referring to? This may be the first legit -NAO of the "winter"...I'd be more worried about any systems shearing out with this look than cutting well to our northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, OHweather said: What +NAO are you guys referring to? This may be the first legit -NAO of the "winter"...I'd be more worried about any systems shearing out with this look than cutting well to our northwest. I was just going to correct my post after I checked out the indices on Wxbell. The NAO is negative on both the gfs and euro around that time frame...although not strongly negative. The AO is just slightly positive and the PNA still in perma-negative mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: I was just going to correct my post after I checked out the indices on Wxbell. The NAO is negative on both the gfs and euro around that time frame...although not strongly negative. The AO is just slightly positive and the PNA still in perma-negative mode. That must have changed with today's run, everything leading to today has been -PNA/+AO/+NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Just now, Stebo said: That must have changed with today's run, everything leading to today has been -PNA/+AO/+NAO it's not strongly negative by any means....but definitely negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Well no sense in doing anything other than watching every model run change. I remain steadfast that anyone is in play. I get where Stebo/powerball etc are coming from, but its not as if it hasn't snowed this winter in southeast MI lol (30-36 inches has fallen over most of the area). At this point I'm trying to figure out how we can still be in play once this jumps over chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 A potential wrinkle is if the low over British Columbia doesn't back southwest like the Euro suite suggests and allow for some height rises on the west coast. That could open the door for a storm to cut more. The -NAO has been there for a few days but has trended more robust as we've gotten closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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