Hoosier Posted February 20, 2017 Author Share Posted February 20, 2017 Pattern gets colder (has to by default) but there is resistance with south/east extent. Have to see how this shakes out but northwestern areas definitely favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Pattern gets colder (has to by default) but there is resistance with south/east extent. Have to see how this shakes out but northwestern areas definitely favored. The PNA goes back negative for the first time in a while, the southeast ridge is going to get going in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 49 minutes ago, Stebo said: The PNA goes back negative for the first time in a while, the southeast ridge is going to get going in a big way. Looks cutter-y with that anomaly gradient oriented the way that it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 As was alluded to earlier in this thread wrt pattern, I get the feeling that this is going to be a much more active svr season than we have seen in recent springs. Baroclinic zone battles will be forthcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Hopefully with the active pattern incoming everyone gets some action and the storm tracks oscillate some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 0z GFS came farther south with the 27-28 storm and gives Chicago 12-18" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I've probably had about 100" of GFS snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Maxim said: I've probably had about 100" of GFS snow this winter. Yeah easily, with the southeast ridge flexing its muscles expect that to trend back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 52 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah easily, with the southeast ridge flexing its muscles expect that to trend back north. Maybe but it would make sense for it to track south of the 23-25 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 if only it was that easy to make sense especially this winter.. let alone 3 storms out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Overall look on the 00z GEFS/00z Euro basically from the system late this work week on would support multiple cutters with retrograding AK high leading to a series of shortwaves dropping southward along the West Coast (basically a pipeline for the polar jet to get more involved) and a fairly prominent SE ridge. Seems like a good potential for at least one higher impact system (snow or severe wise, or both), if not multiple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 53 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Maybe but it would make sense for it to track south of the 23-25 storm. Under what reasoning? Just because it snows to the north doesn't mean the storm track can't go northward especially late in the season like this along with the synoptic pattern that is going to be set up for system 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 7 hours ago, Stebo said: Under what reasoning? Just because it snows to the north doesn't mean the storm track can't go northward especially late in the season like this along with the synoptic pattern that is going to be set up for system 2. I think he's referring to the initial storm forcing the baroclinic zone further south, which would at least help somewhat with putting a ceiling on how far NW the 27th-28th system cuts. There is indication of some transient blocking developing in the initial system's wake, but with the deep west coast trough and the strong SE ridge, it would literally be threading the needle to get a favorable outcome (GFS being the best case scenario). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Indiana and Ohio get destroyed on the 06z GFS. Jeez... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Powerball said: I think he's referring to the initial storm forcing the baroclinic zone further south, which would at least help somewhat with putting a ceiling on how far NW the 27th-28th system cuts. There is indication of some transient blocking developing in the initial system's wake, but with the deep west coast trough and the strong SE ridge, it would literally be threading the needle to get a favorable outcome (GFS being the best case scenario). Should have been more specific but yes that was my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 12z GFS is much weaker but still has snows between I-80 and I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2017 Author Share Posted February 20, 2017 Haven't seen many clown maps like this in a while. What can go wrong, what can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 19 hours ago, UMB WX said: Hopefully we have to pay for all this warm winter weather deep in to spring. And hopefully not continue to pay for it that way into the upcoming Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 On February 19, 2017 at 5:00 PM, UMB WX said: Hopefully we have to pay for all this warm winter weather deep in to spring. you're the only one who isn't enjoying the beautiful weather, I think. and don't worry, we're gonna torch hard this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 21 hours ago, Hoosier said: Haven't seen many clown maps like this in a while. What can go wrong, what can go wrong. To answer your question...everything?!? The wheels are already falling off the bus...and in fact, the bus has careened out of control over the cliff. Ok, a little dramatic...hopefully I end up eating my words. The worst part isn't just the modeled snowfall disappearing; it's the general wet period during the last week of February that was shown for several GFS runs in a row...and is now fading away. The 2-3" of liquid over a fairly large area is now down to 1-1.5". It's really amazing when you think about it...all you can do is laugh. Is it possible to have an "F minus" Winter grade? At least some of our friends on the forum will be happy. I've never understood why people who hate winter post in Winter discussion threads...it just aggravates those of us who are trying to enjoy the slight bit of Winter that we get in this part of the world. If all of us lived in northern MN and had more consistent and unrelenting winter weather, that would be different...as a bit of Spring like warmth would certainly be welcome in Feb-Apr. I'm just talking about the general Winter discussion threads like this one...not the individual events or banter. It would be nice if the Winter discussion thread would actually focus on Winter...even if there are only faint threats/speculation. Instead, all we get are posts about how exciting the warm weather is. I don't like summer...yet I don't bother people by posting in Summer threads to say "Ha ha...I hope every day is in the 50s/60s and raining". It's common courtesy. Yes, I agree that 95% of the public is enjoying the warm spell we've been having...and it's nauseating to have to hear the media fawn all over themselves about how beautiful it is outside. On the same token, the general public doesn't have an interest in meteorology like our forum participants do. I didn't get a degree in meteorology to enjoy San Diego type weather, and to be overjoyed about how nice a sunny 70 degree day is. It used to be that coming onto this forum would be a good escape from the public who wants every day to be 75 and sunny...but that isn't the case anymore. I understand if people don't have the passion for Winter that I do...but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 9 hours ago, beavis1729 said: To answer your question...everything?!? The wheels are already falling off the bus...and in fact, the bus has careened out of control over the cliff. Ok, a little dramatic...hopefully I end up eating my words. The worst part isn't just the modeled snowfall disappearing; it's the general wet period during the last week of February that was shown for several GFS runs in a row...and is now fading away. The 2-3" of liquid over a fairly large area is now down to 1-1.5". It's really amazing when you think about it...all you can do is laugh. Is it possible to have an "F minus" Winter grade? At least some of our friends on the forum will be happy. I've never understood why people who hate winter post in Winter discussion threads...it just aggravates those of us who are trying to enjoy the slight bit of Winter that we get in this part of the world. If all of us lived in northern MN and had more consistent and unrelenting winter weather, that would be different...as a bit of Spring like warmth would certainly be welcome in Feb-Apr. I'm just talking about the general Winter discussion threads like this one...not the individual events or banter. It would be nice if the Winter discussion thread would actually focus on Winter...even if there are only faint threats/speculation. Instead, all we get are posts about how exciting the warm weather is. I don't like summer...yet I don't bother people by posting in Summer threads to say "Ha ha...I hope every day is in the 50s/60s and raining". It's common courtesy. Yes, I agree that 95% of the public is enjoying the warm spell we've been having...and it's nauseating to have to hear the media fawn all over themselves about how beautiful it is outside. On the same token, the general public doesn't have an interest in meteorology like our forum participants do. I didn't get a degree in meteorology to enjoy San Diego type weather, and to be overjoyed about how nice a sunny 70 degree day is. It used to be that coming onto this forum would be a good escape from the public who wants every day to be 75 and sunny...but that isn't the case anymore. I understand if people don't have the passion for Winter that I do...but still. Good post. I'm with you man. This winter blows. What makes it all the worse is that this winter was forecast to be cold and snowy by so many...and not just JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 On Monday, February 20, 2017 at 11:14 AM, Hoosier said: Haven't seen many clown maps like this in a while. What can go wrong, what can go wrong. GFS giveth and taketh away. Same timeframe as before: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 5 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Good post. I'm with you man. This winter blows. What makes it all the worse is that this winter was forecast to be cold and snowy by so many...and not just JB. Seasonal forecasts are meaningless to me. I think last winter was a lucky hit with El nino. December 2015 was really warm, but the other two months didn't feature as many warm-ups as this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Lol just looped the 6z gfs and after the Feb 28/Mar 1 storm, there are 6 clipper type lows between then and the end of the run. Let's see if at least a few can pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 On 12/25/2016 at 1:38 PM, Stebo said: The one thing that could still help the region with respect to snow is the PNA looks to remain very negative as well. This will leave a southeast ridge in place, we very well could end up with a strong gradient pattern then, which the GFS has been hinting at after day 10. I guess too much of a good thing isn't always good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 25 minutes ago, Powerball said: I guess too much of a good thing isn't always good. Didn't expect us to remain in a +AO/NAO the entire time, that killed it for the winter. We had no cold source and when we did the PNA would go positive and we'd have no moisture source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Didn't expect us to remain in a +AO/NAO the entire time, that killed it for the winter. We had no cold source and when we did the PNA would go positive and we'd have no moisture source. Honestly, we probably would have done OK even with the +AO/NAO if we didn't have to deal with a flow that's moving faster than the speed of light. It's very hard to get anything of significance if everything is unable to amplify and instead keeps getting shred to pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Looking like several snow chances in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 7 hours ago, Powerball said: Honestly, we probably would have done OK even with the +AO/NAO if we didn't have to deal with a flow that's moving faster than the speed of light. It's very hard to get anything of significance if everything is unable to amplify and instead keeps getting shred to pieces. The synopsis of the last 3/4 of winter 2016-17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, IWXwx said: The synopsis of the last 3/4 of winters 2016-2017 since 2010=2011. fyp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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