Snowstorms Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 As the Pacific pattern reshuffles following the current jet extension (which is driving all the warmth into the region), we should see the return of a -EPO beyond Feb 22nd towards early March. By early March the EPO ridge will most likely shift towards the Aleutians (more common in La Nina's), and the coldest anomalies will be centered around the plains. So should storm possibilities present themselves, our best chance at seeing any widespread accumulating snowfall looks to be between Feb 22nd and early March IMO. \ Then again, I've said that all winter long and despite the "favourable pattern", we've still ended up with rain and warmth. However, I think we'll see atleast one decent storm in the time-frame above^. Lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I think we are moving from LaNina to more ENSO neutral now as I check water temps in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonger said: Looks like a transient warmup... I'm liking the digging trough right after that. The Yoop seems to be spared most of the warmup too. Lol "transient" guess the cold we had in Feb 2015 was transient too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 21 minutes ago, Indystorm said: I think we are moving from LaNina to more ENSO neutral now as I check water temps in the Pacific. For sure ENSO neutral springs following La Nina winters: 1951, 1965, 1972, 1976, 1996, 2001, 2012. Honorable mentions for 1963, 1967, 1968, 2006, 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, Maxim said: Lol "transient" guess the cold we had in Feb 2015 was transient too. Hey Alek, PM me with your Xbox gamertag so I can kick your butt, mine is Snowmobiler1012. Everything is transient.... My point was that the warmup isn't going to usher in spring... It's just another rollercoaster ride in a crappy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 hours ago, Jonger said: I don't put any stock in the MJO. Lol, that is like saying I don't put any stock in gravity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 hours ago, Maxim said: Lol "transient" guess the cold we had in Feb 2015 was transient too. The mildness of this winter is nowhere near the same level as the cold in feb 2015. This winter has been a roller coaster with numerous cold snaps however the mild spells have won. Feb 2015 was historic cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Good lord... he did it again. JB just posted a column laying forth the argument that he nailed the pattern at 500 all winter long, including all of his forecasted pattern flips.... but the surface didn't cooperate. You can't make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: Good lord... he did it again. JB just posted a column laying forth the argument that he nailed the pattern at 500 all winter long, including all of his forecasted pattern flips.... but the surface didn't cooperate. You can't make this stuff up. Is that worth the read during my dump later? When it's gotten warm it's not because of a 500mb trough over the NE failing to bring cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 He just needs to admit that he's wrong, to flaunt that he's right and how he knew we would have a super progressive flow w/o any blocking whatsoever is childish and unprofessional. It'd be in his best interest to just bite the bullet and admit he busted at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 7 hours ago, Maxim said: Lol "transient" guess the cold we had in Feb 2015 was transient too. Yeah, but no. Feb. 2015 was a b**ch. Think the cold equivalent of July 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 6 hours ago, buckeye said: Good lord... he did it again. JB just posted a column laying forth the argument that he nailed the pattern at 500 all winter long, including all of his forecasted pattern flips.... but the surface didn't cooperate. You can't make this stuff up. He is a hack and not worth acknowledging anymore. People need to stop paying attention to him and maybe, just maybe he will fade from existence in the meteorological community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 9 hours ago, Stebo said: He is a hack and not worth acknowledging anymore. People need to stop paying attention to him and maybe, just maybe he will fade from existence in the meteorological community. I love wxbell in the winter. You can't beat the graphics and informtion on the model page. I subscribe from Dec to March. But when I log on, sitting off to the side is JB's column....it's like driving by an offensive car wreck full of carnage....you know you shouldn't look....but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 12z GFS has the Great Lakes Blizzard of 78 redux beyond 240 hours, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: 12z GFS has the Great Lakes Blizzard of 78 redux beyond 240 hours, lol. GFS has been hitting this time period pretty consistently over the last few days. Might be one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 28 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: 12z GFS has the Great Lakes Blizzard of 78 redux beyond 240 hours, lol. Now now, the phase is not like 78. Nice storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 29 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Now now, the phase is not like 78. Nice storm though. More like November 1950 (which was also a nice storm itself). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 GFS has on numerous occasions this season produced an intense storm in the latter part of its range only to ramp down significantly as we get closer to the event. I wonder about the physics involved in this for it to be happening rather consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Monday's 12z GFS again has quite a potent fantasy storm at the end of its run around March 1. Of greater significance is something I've noticed and Gil Sebenste of NIU Weather commented on today is that the Gulf of Mexico is unusually warm with no arctic intrusions. Research has shown that with the greater amount of available moisture the svr season could be enhanced. I'm thinking of the March 2, 2012 Henryville IN EF 4 as we come off a mild LaNina to more neutral territory and enter met spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Model wars continue. Tuesday EURO has a 988 mb storm over northern Nebraska on Friday Feb. 24 vs GFS 1004 mb storm near Kansas City. Something to watch at least as we near the end of met winter, even though the EURO might likely lead to greater chances for svr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On February 11, 2017 at 5:13 PM, BuffaloWeather said: That feeling you get when the highest anomalies are right over your head. My forecast point for Saturday is already 10ºC whereas 2 days ago it was 4ºC. Can't wait for this stupid ass winter to end. On February 12, 2017 at 11:56 AM, Snowstorms said: 12z GFS has the Great Lakes Blizzard of 78 redux beyond 240 hours, lol. That reminds me of that "legit blizzard" the models (can't remember if it was both the Euro and GFS or one of them) were showing for Christmas day (even more cool - showing the absolute worst conditions before/during 7 am Christmas morning) in 2014 right for southern Ontario. One run had 954 mb near K-W. In typical 2014 fashion it was just a joke and one last giant middle finger from that "fantastic" year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 We are going to start to feel the effects of the MJO propagating through phases 8-1 I think, with a period of below average temps looking increasingly likely after Feb 24 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Gee, this looks familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Euro has trended quicker, and now weaker with the late week system. Not surprising considering how that has happened quite a bit this winter. Wouldn't be surprised to see the weakening trend continue, but hopefully that won't be the case. The quicker/weaker system also cuts away next Friday from the 60+ streak for much of the western sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 After the week long torch, winter looks to return. Will it bare any fruit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Some consensus with at least a marginal threat for severewx next Friday. Dews around 60 ahead of the system and less convection trash early in the day could let the sun peak out this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2017 Author Share Posted February 19, 2017 18z GFS is something. Storm after storm taking similar tracks give or take 100-200 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 18z GFS is something. Storm after storm taking similar tracks give or take 100-200 miles. Imagine that pattern 6 weeks from now, we'd be talking incredible severe weather numbers. Even as it stands there is potential in this pattern if we can get enough wave spacing and no cutoff nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Hopefully we have to pay for all this warm winter weather deep in to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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