beavis1729 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 28 minutes ago, Hoosier said: What about 2012-13 though? I was still in LAF then but looking at the numbers for Chicago, 0.9" in December and 2.6" in January is about as bad as it gets. Both months were warmer than average as well, with December in particular being a torch. It eventually rallied though and given what happened in the next couple winters, perhaps it's sort of been forgotten. That's true - but as you said, 2012-13 eventually rallied a bit, which is why that winter was better than 2016-17. I have to assume that this winter won't rally. I will believe it when I see it. Everyone seems to be so excited about our decent winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15...but the other 4 winters since 2011-12 have been horrendous. All we're debating here is the level of futility. Our standards have gotten so bad that we're creating threads for "precipitation/wind events" in DJF instead of snowstorms and arctic outbreaks. It's laughable...but then again, so is our climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: That's true - but as you said, 2012-13 eventually rallied a bit, which is why that winter was better than 2016-17. I have to assume that this winter won't rally. I will believe it when I see it. Everyone seems to be so excited about our decent winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15...but the other 4 winters since 2011-12 have been horrendous. All we're debating here is the level of futility. Our standards have gotten so bad that we're creating threads for "precipitation/wind events" in DJF instead of snowstorms and arctic outbreaks. It's laughable...but then again, so is our climo. Chicago is in a horrible 6 week and counting stretch. There is no other way to describe it. But not counting this winter (because its only half over), 6 of the last 9 winters in Chicago saw 50"+ of snow (including a 60+ and an 80+) in a city that averages 37". I dont think its your standards so much as your expectations that have gotten bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Being older that most people on here, I can say that the winter of 68-69 in the Ohio Valley was similar to this year. We only had around 3" of snow for the winter in Cincinnati. This year, thus far, we've had around 4"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: Being older that most people on here, I can say that the winter of 68-69 in the Ohio Valley was similar to this year. We only had around 3" of snow for the winter in Cincinnati. This year, thus far, we've had around 4"..... Welcome to the board and I'll look forward to observations and comments from your part of our sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Welcome to the board and I'll look forward to observations and comments from your part of our sub forum. Thanks. I've been on here before but not very often. Btw, I now reside in S-SE Indiana near Columbus.. 100 miles west of Cincy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 What's made it worse is expectations especially after the decent start, followed by not even a legit storm threat. Lackluster snow since Dec. 19 the lowest in 117 years; minor disturbance skirts the area later Saturday https://t.co/E3hKH4mfKf- Tom Skilling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: lol Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Those temps in the long range on the 18Z GFS would be insane, mid 60's and Severe Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 On the subject of winters 11-12 was terrific because even though it wasn't snowy we did get a ton of sunshine. That's what this winter has lacked, mild temps with clouds daily pretty muchSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Alek redemption winter/spring. He's loving the snow futility, and the warmth. Hope this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Cfs has always been garbage outside of a few weeks, but I can never remember it flip flopping as much as it has this winter. Even in the weekly range, cfs is showing torch and GEFS cold for mid to late Feb. Could not be more different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 seems like the GFS/GEFS is a cold outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: zzzzz Pretty sad that this has been accurate since December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 5 hours ago, cyclone77 said: zzzzz Well, we have 40s and plenty of sun coming for the next week, which isn't bad at all if we are destined to be stuck in a zzzz pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Colder than normal signal is showing up for late Feb into at the first half of March. That plus nino/nina tendencies to have big snowstorms in March, I will be shocked if chicago can't get a snowstorm. Calling it now. Chicago gets another 6+ inch snowstorm before this season is through, and Detroit ends up slightly above normal snow on the season. The irony for chicago if that happens is that they will have had THREE 6+ inch snowstorms this season and a solid 2+ month snow drought of next to no snow during the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 19 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Colder than normal signal is showing up for late Feb into at the first half of March. That plus nino/nina tendencies to have big snowstorms in March, I will be shocked if chicago can't get a snowstorm. Calling it now. Chicago gets another 6+ inch snowstorm before this season is through, and Detroit ends up slightly above normal snow on the season. The irony for chicago if that happens is that they will have had THREE 6+ inch snowstorms this season and a solid 2+ month snow drought of next to no snow during the heart of winter. CFS2 is the only forecast I've seen that is looking colder than normal for March....and we know how much stock that holds. The canadian ensembles shows slightly above through the first week or so of March and then slightly below after. The euro weeklies aren't good. The 46 day snowfall total mean which goes through the last week of March barely gives Chicago 6", and the mean 2m temp anomaly is around +2 for the whole period. If I had to place a bet on who gets the biggest snowstorm east of the Mississippi between now and the end of March....(excluding Boston of course)...I'd go with the midatlantic. There's really no strong signal in the enso to expect a sudden change from what we've seen this winter and the way these crazy troughs have been acting all winter with a tendency to be much too far east for us, I'd rather have my chips on the same number as theirs if you're betting on a late season blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Colder than normal signal is showing up for late Feb into at the first half of March. That plus nino/nina tendencies to have big snowstorms in March, I will be shocked if chicago can't get a snowstorm. Calling it now. Chicago gets another 6+ inch snowstorm before this season is through, and Detroit ends up slightly above normal snow on the season. The irony for chicago if that happens is that they will have had THREE 6+ inch snowstorms this season and a solid 2+ month snow drought of next to no snow during the heart of winter. Anything can happen, but it sort of feels like it's never going to snow significantly around here again. lol I went back and looked at the winters that had streaks of 60+ days in DJF without a 1" snow in Chicago (looking at models, I have to assume there's a good chance this one will join the limited club), and they generally turned around to some extent after the streak ended... either by a notable storm or a series of smaller events that added up. For example, one winter had an 8" storm after the streak ended and another winter had an 11" storm after the streak ended. But then there was the horror show in 1921-22 that never turned. So there's nothing guaranteed but at least there's precedent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 10 hours ago, buckeye said: CFS2 is the only forecast I've seen that is looking colder than normal for March....and we know how much stock that holds. The canadian ensembles shows slightly above through the first week or so of March and then slightly below after. The euro weeklies aren't good. The 46 day snowfall total mean which goes through the last week of March barely gives Chicago 6", and the mean 2m temp anomaly is around +2 for the whole period. If I had to place a bet on who gets the biggest snowstorm east of the Mississippi between now and the end of March....(excluding Boston of course)...I'd go with the midatlantic. There's really no strong signal in the enso to expect a sudden change from what we've seen this winter and the way these crazy troughs have been acting all winter with a tendency to be much too far east for us, I'd rather have my chips on the same number as theirs if you're betting on a late season blockbuster. We will have to see how it pans out. Though the midatlantic has had practically no snow this winter so that prediction right there is bold (if going by the mantra to not expect a sudden change). The cfs weeklies have been garbage but so has every other model. It's my gut call and I'm sticking with it for chicago. Big late season snowstorms happen more often than not during ninos, Ninas, & years with low snowfall. Thats a double whammy for big snowstorm lol. As for here, we have been finding ways to snow this winter regardless of the pattern, so go with the hot hand. We will get to normal or above whether by way of a big snowstorm, nickels and dimes, or a combination of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Euro/GEM/GFS all torch 144hrs+. What an amazing winter. Euro even gets 70's into N Illinois at the end of the run. Is this the new winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said: Euro/GEM/GFS all torch 144hrs+. What an amazing winter. Euro even gets 70's into N Illinois at the end of the run. Is this the new winter? Spring is arriving 20-25+ days early in the top color bins on the map. 80s tomorrow just to my southwest across a good swath of southern Missouri. Spring is knocking already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 lol 16 C 925's in N IL... so 70 degrees could be attainable. too bad it's still a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 hours ago, IllinoisWedges said: Euro/GEM/GFS all torch 144hrs+. What an amazing winter. Euro even gets 70's into N Illinois at the end of the run. Is this the new winter? Yeah next weekend is looking incredible. The widespread nature of the warmth is extremely impressive. Basically a full torch from the high plains to the OH valley region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Let's remember this period the next time someone touts the MJO as a good indicator. During the coming torch the MJO will not only be in a classically cold phase 8, it will be achieving near record amplitude within that phase. We should be freezing our asses off instead of torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 hours ago, buckeye said: Let's remember this period the next time someone touts the MJO as a good indicator. During the coming torch the MJO will not only be in a classically cold phase 8, it will be achieving near record amplitude within that phase. We should be freezing our asses off instead of torching. Phase 8 as you get closer to March isn't a cold phase, especially the further west you go into the plains, early to mid winter it is a cold phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 4 hours ago, buckeye said: Let's remember this period the next time someone touts the MJO as a good indicator. During the coming torch the MJO will not only be in a classically cold phase 8, it will be achieving near record amplitude within that phase. We should be freezing our asses off instead of torching. To be fair, the models tend to be in "catch up" mode when it comes to the MJO. In other words, I wouldn't be surprised if they back down significantly on the extent / duration of the warmth as the time frame draws closer. Remember, this weekend was supposed to be the "torch" 7 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Records for next weekend in Chicago are in the low to mid 60s. However, that is slightly misleading as Chicago has hit 70 as early as February 11 (1999). You always want to temper expectations this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 5 hours ago, buckeye said: Let's remember this period the next time someone touts the MJO as a good indicator. During the coming torch the MJO will not only be in a classically cold phase 8, it will be achieving near record amplitude within that phase. We should be freezing our asses off instead of torching. I don't put any stock in the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Looks like a transient warmup... I'm liking the digging trough right after that. The Yoop seems to be spared most of the warmup too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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