Winter 2016-2017 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[weatherbo]

5 minutes ago, snowsux said:

No, that's when the blocking will begin and our delayed, ruined spring will commence. upper 30's and low 40's for highs, perpetual precipitation, and grey skies. Maybe the occasional heavy, wet snow that melts by the next afternoon. All the way through March and into the first half of April. I'm saying this sarcastically of course, but I'd bet my bottom dollar that's what JB's gonna be touting soon, if he already isn't.  

bitter much?

[IWXwx]

10 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

bitter much?

lol.

I checked IND's afternoon discussion to see their thoughts on next weeks system:

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/... Issued at 245 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017

Computer problems. Basically accepted forecaster builder...expect for the freezing rain threat Saturday night and early Sunday. Superblend temperatures accepted with minor tweaks.

What the....?

 

 

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

lol

I checked IND's afternoon discussion to see what their thoughts were concerning next week's system at the end of the long term. Here's what they said:.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/... Issued at 245 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Computer problems. Basically accepted forecaster builder...expect for the freezing rain threat Saturday night and early Sunday. Superblend temperatures accepted with minor tweaks.

What the....?

That is an odd discussion...

[cyclone77]

I thought about starting a poll predicting how deep will the next Tuesday/Wednesday system be before it leaves the CONUS.  Will it be as crazy deep as today's Euro, or will it end up being a strung out pos 1002mb system like so many have become?  The Super Bowl system was originally looking pretty interesting, as both the EC and GFS were advertising something decent for a few runs.  Will be interesting to see what happens with the Tue/Wed storm.

[Indystorm]

The Jan. 31 St. Louis AFD is the first in the sub to mention a good chance of t storms with possible svr if current models come to fruition next Tues.  If models continue the trend and we get within five days per usual procedure we will have to start a topic for this event so as not to clutter our long range winter thread. As you can probably see I'm chompin at the bit for svr wx season because of this blah winter we have had so far down in my neck of the woods.

[harrisale]

At least if this goes flat and doesn't cut as hard more folks may get in on some snow. 

I'll be watching once this gets inside of 96 hours. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Well, it didn't take long for the GFS to significantly change the pattern and lose the big Tuesday blizzard.  The 00z run bumps a ridge over the northern Rockies and shunts the main blizzard energy up into Canada.

There is then a delayed digging of energy down from southern Canada that spins up another storm, rain for most initially, but very dynamic with strong wind and cold behind it.  Needless to say, nothing is locked in.

[Jonger]

00z GFS weakens the 7th storm dramatically.

I loved the 18Z.... Big hit for northern Michigan and the UP.

[Indystorm]

Then it deepens the second wave eventually.  Probably gonna flip a lot in successive model runs till we get closer.

[Snowstorms]

18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Well, it didn't take long for the GFS to significantly change the pattern and lose the big Tuesday blizzard.  The 00z run bumps a ridge over the northern Rockies and shunts the main blizzard energy up into Canada.

There is then a delayed digging of energy down from southern Canada that spins up another storm, rain for most initially, but very dynamic with strong wind and cold behind it.  Needless to say, nothing is locked in.

That secondary storm is impressive. Deepens rapidly near Lake Michigan and has an extensive precip shield.

Nice negative tilt per vort maps too.

You're right. Radical change from the 12z run. Very complex set-up! Highly dependent on that PNA trough and where it exactly sets up IMO. 

[snowsux]

4 hours ago, weatherbo said:

bitter much?

Always. I wouldn't be a good yinzer if I wasn't.

[Spartman]

7 hours ago, Chambana said:

Nail in the coffin.

[RCNYILWX]

6 hours ago, Stebo said:

That is an odd discussion...

The terms forecast builder and superblend are the methodology used to populate the forecast in periods 3 and onward by nws offices in the central region. So on a day shift, tomorrow night and onward through day 7, T, Max T, Min T, Td, sky cover, PoP, winds, wind gusts and QPF populate with a blend of models including some bias corrected versions and some contribution from the previous forecast. That's superblend. It's meant to give us a common starting point that is theoretically easier to collaborate changes to/add value when necessary and also results in less NDFD discrepancy. Forecast Builder is the GUI used to derive the weather grids and snow/ice accums using several tools and probability of type top down precipitation type methodology for winter precip. It's unfortunate those terms were used in an AFD because our users have no clue what Superblend and Forecast Builder are.

[IWXwx]

3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

The terms forecast builder and superblend are the methodology used to populate the forecast in periods 3 and onward by nws offices in the central region. So on a day shift, tomorrow night and onward through day 7, T, Max T, Min T, Td, sky cover, PoP, winds, wind gusts and QPF populate with a blend of models including some bias corrected versions and some contribution from the previous forecast. That's superblend. It's meant to give us a common starting point that is theoretically easier to collaborate changes to/add value when necessary and also results in less NDFD discrepancy. Forecast Builder is the GUI used to derive the weather grids and snow/ice accums using several tools and probability of type top down precipitation type methodology for winter precip. It's unfortunate those terms were used in an AFD because our users have no clue what Superblend and Forecast Builder are.

Thanks for the reply. I was referring to the fact that the computer was down and thus the abbreviated discussion. Someone here explained in the past superblend and Forecast Builder. Also, Nick Greenawalt from IWX (now at CLE) explained them to me.

Unfortunately, IND forecasters frequently refer to them in their discussions.

[Hoosier]

12z Euro with a big storm again, but farther southeast than yesterday's 12z run.

[Chinook]

Euro has 975mb close to Detroit at hour 168, the GFS has 993mb in the Upper Peninsula. That's a ~25mb difference in for DTW. What's 20mb between friends? Well, anyway, the Euro 48 hr snow totals would be pretty high for Southern Minnesota, WI, and northwest of Detroit. Of course, there seems to be a lot of uncertainty, so don't get your hopes too high if you are in the most populated areas of MI or WI.

[Jonger]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

12z Euro with a big storm again, but farther southeast than yesterday's 12z run.

Good. One more UP melt down and I might go ballistic.

[weatherbo]

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

Good. One more UP melt down and I might go ballistic.

Never seen your morale so low.  How many miles have you rode this season?

[IWXwx]

On 1/26/2017 at 6:23 PM, cyclone77 said:

Yeah Super Bowl weekend is consistently showing up as the next decent storm system to follow.  Euro op would be another rainer for most of us, with the GFS consistently showing more of a snow system.  Normally wouldn't even look that far out on an op model and take it too seriously, but it's the only thing to look at.  Weak clippers don't do much for me.  

Don't think I can take another cold rainer, so if it's not going to be primarily snow I'll be hoping for a complete whiff.

The "Super Bowl Storm" is now known as "Deflategate".

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

The "Super Bowl Storm" is now known as "Deflategate".

lol...   perfect

[buckeye]

17 hours ago, Hoosier said:

12z Euro with a big storm again, but farther southeast than yesterday's 12z run.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if that storm trends further south.   I was surprised checking the indices and to see the gfs and euro both show a negative spike with the ao and nao at the timeframe of the storm.    In addition the euro is starting to show the usual trend this winter of starting off with a tight bomb pretty far nw to a multi-centered, confusing-looking, POS.

 

[weatherbo]

12z GFS remaining very consistent with a bigtime snow storm for N lakes... If this still looks good on Saturday models, I'll start preparing.  Reminds me of early Nov 2014 when I received 36" during a storm.  I was snowed in for 2 days before I saw a snowplow up here N of the Dead River Basin..

Through hr 180, 30"+

[BuffaloWeather]

Early Spring

[Baum]

Been a long time since I've seen a winter this bad. Keep thinking somethings gotta flip, and it never does.

[Hoosier]

23 minutes ago, Baum said:

Been a long time since I've seen a winter this bad. Keep thinking somethings gotta flip, and it never does.

You'd have to go back to 2012-13 for Chicago.  Only had about 6" at this point but it started to turn in February and rallied to get to 30" total by the end.

Then there was 2011-12.  Running about 5" ahead of where that winter was at this point, but the way it got there was the opposite of this winter.  2011-12 had an awful December and a decent January (as far as snow, but it was mild).

[beavis1729]

I agree with Baum. It's not just total snowfall that defines how good or bad a winter is.

2016-17 has been the worst winter that I can remember...and that goes back about 30 years. Essentially zero snowfall for about 6-7 weeks during the heart of winter...with several rain events. I was 8 years old during the awful Strong El Niño winter of 1982-83. That may have been worse than the 2016-17 winter, but I don't remember it. At least 2011-12 had some periodic snow events during the winter...even though it was admittedly a very bad winter. 2015-16 was horrible too...but IMBY we actually managed decent January snowfall and snow cover. 50 miles south was a different story. 

You can't sugarcoat this winter - there aren't enough curse words to describe it. What makes it worse is that many people thought this winter would be decent...whereas we knew ahead of time that 2015-16 would be awful. 

[buckeye]

18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You'd have to go back to 2012-13 for Chicago.  Only had about 6" at this point but it started to turn in February and rallied to get to 30" total by the end.

Then there was 2011-12.  Running about 5" ahead of where that winter was at this point, but the way it got there was the opposite of this winter.  2011-12 had an awful December and a decent January (as far as snow, but it was mild).

I think what makes this winter feel more futile than past winters that had low Dec and Jan snows, is that usually Feb looks promising as a turnaround period.   This Feb looks like it's going double down on being a craptastic month.     I would absolutely love to see us go into Feb/March 2012-like pattern!     

 

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I agree with Baum. It's not just total snowfall that defines how good or bad a winter is.

2016-17 has been the worst winter that I can remember...and that goes back about 30 years. Essentially zero snowfall for about 6-7 weeks during the heart of winter...with several rain events. I was 8 years old during the awful Strong El Niño winter of 1982-83. That may have been worse than the 2016-17 winter, but I don't remember it. At least 2011-12 had some periodic snow events during the winter...even though it was admittedly a very bad winter. 2015-16 was horrible too...but IMBY we actually managed decent January snowfall and snow cover. 50 miles south was a different story. 

You can't sugarcoat this winter - there aren't enough curse words to describe it. What makes it worse is that many people thought this winter would be decent...whereas we knew ahead of time that 2015-16 would be awful. 

What about 2012-13 though?  I was still in LAF then but looking at the numbers for Chicago, 0.9" in December and 2.6" in January is about as bad as it gets.  Both months were warmer than average as well, with December in particular being a torch. It eventually rallied though and given what happened in the next couple winters, perhaps it's sort of been forgotten.  

[Maxim]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Early Spring

Love it

[buckeye]

to throw another couch, (I am a mountaineer alumnus after all),  on the 2016-17 dumpster fire...

The 12z euro ens 15 day snow totals for most of the sub is probably one of the most anemic 15 day ens means snow map I've seen it puke up in a couple of months.