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Winter 2016-2017 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier

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Incredible latitudinal extent for the warm sector for early Feb being projected by the last two runs of the Euro here. That combined with an intense trough with a 110+ kt 500 mb max like that one generally = a significant problem. Euro is certainly suggesting a pseudo-dryline feature making it quite far east too.

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Just now, andyhb said:

Incredible latitudinal extent for the warm sector for early Feb being projected by the last two runs of the Euro here. That combined with an intense trough with a 110+ kt 500 mb max like that one generally = a significant problem. Euro is certainly suggesting a pseudo-dryline feature making it quite far east too.

Yeah the extent/size of the warm sector wit 60 dews, plenty of CAPE and H5-H7 lapse rates between 19-21z deg C over a large area. 

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2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Incredible latitudinal extent for the warm sector for early Feb being projected by the last two runs of the Euro here. That combined with an intense trough with a 110+ kt 500 mb max like that one generally = a significant problem. Euro is certainly suggesting a pseudo-dryline feature making it quite far east too.

A hallmark of some bigger outbreaks.

Can we get anything like this to hold for a week though?

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

A hallmark of some bigger outbreaks.

Can we get anything like this to hold for a week though?

 

Doubtful, the euro loves to pull this stuff with these great lakes/upper midwest bombs.   By the time things realize we end up with a stretched out 1002+ low somewhere over the lakes or OV.  

Other option might be a weaker storm that could give Chicago and your neck of the woods something to watch.   EPS cluster is centered over Chicago anyways.

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18 hours ago, snowsux said:

Yea, it's bad around here for plowing.  I have no desire to be in a constant bidding war over jobs that net less than the cost of a pepperoni pizza. I'll stick to laying the occasional ton of cold mix asphalt throughout the winter for a $400 profit in one hour with minimal stress on my little dump truck. 

This has been the best winter ever for us in terms of work completion in the off season.   Busiest January EVER...even beating the infamous 2012 torch year.   Grading this winter as a snow weenie, it gets an F so far.   Grading this winter for cash flow and it's an A+.      

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18 minutes ago, buckeye said:

This has been the best winter ever for us in terms of work completion in the off season.   Busiest January EVER...even beating the infamous 2012 torch year.   Grading this winter as a snow weenie, it gets an F so far.   Grading this winter for cash flow and it's an A+.      

What sort of work do you do? This winter has kinda sucked for me, but I've had worse. Last winter I did a ton of patchwork though. Life is so easy for me with sealcoating from mid March through November that I guess I kinda get spoiled every year. 

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2 minutes ago, OHweather said:

:lol: 

this winter is a turd. No way around it. Only areas that have done OK are some of the lake effect belts 

We are above normal snowfall here and are not in the lake belts, but I get your point. This is a roller coaster winter so snow hasn't been a problem here but getting sustained winter has. Being this type of winter I feel that even though no one pattern is sustaining itself, in the end, snowfall will likely be above normal in many lake belts and a few other areas, including here, and even those areas who have had a non winter could get a big snowstorm, probably in mid or late March when they don't want it lol.

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Being a week out I really have little concern or interest in next Tuesday yet. However IF those euro and gfs runs came true I would not be a happy camper. That would be even worse than the 2 week torch of January as it would warm up just long enough to melt the winter wonderland then get cold again. Same thing that happened December 26th. It was different January 11th as the snow was toast it was just a matter of how long it would last with a long period of thawing imminent.

The roller coaster is classic ninaesque here though so whatever happens won't be a surprise.

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3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Details will continue to change, but the phase job on the 18z GFS is pretty cool to watch.  The only negative with the recent gfs runs is it shoots the first piece of energy out into the midwest a bit earlier than is ideal, so we end up with a double-barrel strong system instead of one tremendous one.

FWIW the JMA looks amazingly similar to the euro, bombing it out to 975 over the northern lakes at 192.    

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1 hour ago, snowsux said:

What sort of work do you do? This winter has kinda sucked for me, but I've had worse. Last winter I did a ton of patchwork though. Life is so easy for me with sealcoating from mid March through November that I guess I kinda get spoiled every year. 

 Outdoor lighting and sound systems.   Biggest detriment to us working this time of year is frozen ground and snow cover.   Here in Columbus the ground froze for a short period of time in early January and even then it was a very shallow freeze.   As far as snow cover....:lmao:   

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I have to remind myself that models predicted an ice storm a week out for IL and IN that didn't really pan out to the intensity expected except for some far southern IL counties and of course way westward.  Still, the expansiveness of the warm sector is impressive and climo wise when we come out of Nina winters in ENSO transitions svr weather can increase substantially.  I've already had a big arm of an ash tree blown down Jan. 10 from my first svr storm of the year.  I'm recalling the Super Tuesday tornado outbreak in 2008 but the upcoming event looks like it would occur much farther north.

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1 hour ago, Jackstraw said:

I wasn't kidding when I said torch after Valentines day.

No, that's when the blocking will begin and our delayed, ruined spring will commence. upper 30's and low 40's for highs, perpetual precipitation, and grey skies. Maybe the occasional heavy, wet snow that melts by the next afternoon. All the way through March and into the first half of April. I'm saying this sarcastically of course, but I'd bet my bottom dollar that's what JB's gonna be touting soon, if he already isn't.  

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