Hoosier Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 19 minutes ago, IWXwx said: That's reassuring. You know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Still a decent looking clipper for the northern lakes and southern Ontario. Not much for anyone else though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 The Canadian is still trying to throw a Super Bowl party for some who haven't had much to party about this winter, while the GFS is toying with the idea, but hasn't RSVP'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: The Canadian is still trying to throw a Super Bowl party for some who haven't had much to party about this winter, while the GFS is toying with the idea, but hasn't RSVP'd. Meanwhile the euro has totally lost it....amazing disappearing act. Even the EPS supports the disappearing act. In fact running through the whole 10 day 00z euro, there's hardly any new snow anywhere after the upcoming clipper through day 10. I'd call it a hiccup but let's face it, futility has ruled this winter so it's hard to write off any model showing a storm threat falling apart. Worst winter weather pattern right now. Cold and dry, cloudy and hoovering around freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 28 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Seems like the ensemble focus is back on the clown/long range February 8-9 period. Then that will probably be lost. Getting a real storm threat in the 120-168 hour range is just to hard lol. Anywhere between Feb 1st-Feb 15th maybe our best chance at getting a snowstorm. However, getting a fully phased storm will depend on timing and the strength of the ULL over Hudson Bay. Its been a long time since we've seen a fully phased storm, wow! Beyond that, I think we'll be back to a similar pattern that we've been experiencing for much of this Winter as the EPO/Aleutian ridge retrogrades back towards Kamchatka and a trough builds over Alaska, lol. Any thoughts on that or a potential SSW? If we get nothing from now till Feb 15th, I'll lose the little hope I have left for this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 System this weekend should be watched especially if the southern energy is able to merge with the low to the north. Still a lot to be worked out on the models but pieces are there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 20 minutes ago, Jrad08 said: System this weekend should be watched especially if the southern energy is able to merge with the low to the north. Still a lot to be worked out on the models but pieces are there... GFS has something for Sunday it looks like. Be curious as to what Canadian & Euro show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, pondo1000 said: GFS has something for Sunday it looks like. Be curious as to what Canadian & Euro show. seems to be trending towards a weaker southern stream and stronger northern stream....ie, warmer for us and potential rain, see 18z gfs. I'm glad you guys are not posting in the Ohio thread. That doesn't deserve to grow any larger this winter. In fact if we can't pull a miracle out somewhere soon I might PM Steve and recommend shutting the damn thing down for the season...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 18 minutes ago, buckeye said: seems to be trending towards a weaker southern stream and stronger northern stream....ie, warmer for us and potential rain, see 18z gfs. I'm glad you guys are not posting in the Ohio thread. That doesn't deserve to grow any larger this winter. In fact if we can't pull a miracle out somewhere soon I might PM Steve and recommend shutting the damn thing down for the season...lol. Yup, shut'r down! Been a disaster the last 2 years. Let's c where this weekend goes, you are referring to the 18z GFS 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Never put much stock in the 18z GFS. 12z seemed a little slower on development and strung out some. 00z last night was decent. See what happens with it. Chance for something if we get a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, CoachLB said: Never put much stock in the 18z GFS. 12z seemed a little slower on development and strung out some. 00z last night was decent. See what happens with it. Chance for something if we get a phase. I can't recall a single time when we needed a phase on a potential system inside 6 days...and it ended up going that way. Pretty much every time I can think of in the last couple of years the strung-out POS solution has always won out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 20 minutes ago, buckeye said: I can't recall a single time when we needed a phase on a potential system inside 6 days...and it ended up going that way. Pretty much every time I can think of in the last couple of years the strung-out POS solution has always won out. Yea. It's been horrible. If not for the dustings and ice. Plowing business would be in the tank. Have yet to drop a blade. I think maybe 3-4 times last winter that we actually plowed. Thrown a lot of salt to keep a float. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, buckeye said: I can't recall a single time when we needed a phase on a potential system inside 6 days...and it ended up going that way. Pretty much every time I can think of in the last couple of years the strung-out POS solution has always won out. The 2014 PV "Blizzard" comes to mind as one that sort of / kind of went that way, but it was only a partial phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 hours ago, buckeye said: seems to be trending towards a weaker southern stream and stronger northern stream....ie, warmer for us and potential rain, see 18z gfs. I'm glad you guys are not posting in the Ohio thread. That doesn't deserve to grow any larger this winter. In fact if we can't pull a miracle out somewhere soon I might PM Steve and recommend shutting the damn thing down for the season...lol. That actually sounds like a great idea! Worst winter ever. Hoping with a warm gulf that this pattern translates into an active severewx season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, CoachLB said: Yea. It's been horrible. If not for the dustings and ice. Plowing business would be in the tank. Have yet to drop a blade. I think maybe 3-4 times last winter that we actually plowed. Thrown a lot of salt to keep a float. Hearing the exact same thing from landscapers here in Columbus area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Just now, buckeye said: Hearing the exact same thing from landscapers here in Columbus area. I've never seen so much salt on top of black top in my whole life. In fact, my wife & I slipped a little on all the salt walking to our car in Dublin the other night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, CoachLB said: Yea. It's been horrible. If not for the dustings and ice. Plowing business would be in the tank. Have yet to drop a blade. I think maybe 3-4 times last winter that we actually plowed. Thrown a lot of salt to keep a float. I own and operate a small pavement maintenance company in SWPA and have never got into plowing. I'm way busier doing small patch work during the winter months than I'd ever be if I pushed snow. Even though we've got one of the best cold mix asphalt suppliers in the country right in our backyard here, patching is still a tough sell this time of the year but I manage. I'd rather do that than sit around and pray for snow. Plus, around here there's not really any money in plowing. A few years ago I asked some of my residential sealing customers with longer driveways what they paid per push. For the average 3-4,000 sqft long-lane driveway it was around $20 to plow and salt. Yea, no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowsux said: I own and operate a small pavement maintenance company in SWPA and have never got into plowing. I'm way busier doing small patch work during the winter months than I'd ever be if I pushed snow. Even though we've got one of the best cold mix asphalt suppliers in the country right in our backyard here, patching is still a tough sell this time of the year but I manage. I'd rather do that than sit around and pray for snow. Plus, around here there's not really any money in plowing. A few years ago I asked some of my residential sealing customers with longer driveways what they paid per push. For the average 3-4,000 sqft long-lane driveway it was around $20 to plow and salt. Yea, no thanks. That's cheap. My buddy and I do banks and some tractor supplies. And few apartment complexes. $80 a lot. The big guys around here get $50/$75 a pass if there plow hits the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, CoachLB said: That's cheap. My buddy and I do banks and some tractor supplies. And few apartment complexes. $80 a lot. The big guys around here get $50/$75 a pass if there plow hits the ground. Yea, it's bad around here for plowing. I have no desire to be in a constant bidding war over jobs that net less than the cost of a pepperoni pizza. I'll stick to laying the occasional ton of cold mix asphalt throughout the winter for a $400 profit in one hour with minimal stress on my little dump truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Feb 8th system wants to continue the winter pattern by cutting right up lake Michigan. We get a deep trough and the moment a system comes together, we warm up and it rides right up to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonger said: Feb 8th system wants to continue the winter pattern by cutting right up lake Michigan. We get a deep trough and the moment a system comes together, we warm up and it rides right up to our west. Sometimes it just plays out like that, I want to say 05-06 was a lot like that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 00z EC has a pretty nice severe event for a good part of the sub next Tuesday. Surface low goes as low as 980mb in Iowa, with a nice instability axis beneath significant shear profiles, particularly in IL just by quick glance. Still a long way out and will likely change, but exciting to see anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 4 hours ago, cyclone77 said: 00z EC has a pretty nice severe event for a good part of the sub next Tuesday. Surface low goes as low as 980mb in Iowa, with a nice instability axis beneath significant shear profiles, particularly in IL just by quick glance. Still a long way out and will likely change, but exciting to see anyway. I just got my second insurance check for the last severe event. Cost me $2800 and cost Progressive insurance $9000. Actually I'm happy it happened, $2800 for a new roof, when I needed one anyhow was a good deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Wow at the strength of the storm at 192 on the 12z Euro. 965mb into the UP. That would be a ship sinker if there were any ships out there. Also probably one hell of a blizzard for the arrowhead of MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 12z Euro...holy moly. Really emphasizes that lead wave this time as opposed to the secondary one on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 Fat boy on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 That would be an interesting event to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, andyhb said: 12z Euro...holy moly. Really emphasizes that lead wave this time as opposed to the secondary one on the backside. I'm guessing a legit severe threat on that run. Haven't checked in detail but it looks like a decent period of return flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 I'm guessing a legit severe threat on that run. Haven't checked in detail but it looks like a decent period of return flow.Big severe threat that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm guessing a legit severe threat on that run. Haven't checked in detail but it looks like a decent period of return flow. Definitely big severe potential, the 00z was also a big potential as well. It brings near 60 dewpoints to Chicago and even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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