Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Grasping at straws but actually seeing a trend more favorable for some clippers in the clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 zzzzzzz as alek and friends would say. 2-3 rainstorms coming over the next 10 days or so zzzzz.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Can't get a much worse pattern for the dead of winter. Looks like we finally see some opportunities arrise starting the end of next week...at least some clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 7 day forecast locally looks pretty bad, mid to upper 40's and 50's through next Wednesday. It looks like my call of entering February with less than 3" of snowfall very well could verify. I have recorded 1/2" snow for the month of January which is just absurd. This winter has had shades of 2011-2012 yes more pronounced cold snaps, but the huge warm ups, and lack of snowfall is 2011 esque. kind of wonder if we are not going to enter a early spring this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 A spark of life has potentially emerged: Also see: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/Current/seasonal_strat/zmplots/T___lat_p_70N-90N_zm.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 If it turns out to be a biggie, it would help weaken the jet and set up some blocking. A bit of a different situation from November, where the vortex hi-tailed it to Siberia and helped turbo-charge the Pacific jet. This would be a much different scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 hours ago, Chambana said: 7 day forecast locally looks pretty bad, mid to upper 40's and 50's through next Wednesday. It looks like my call of entering February with less than 3" of snowfall very well could verify. I have recorded 1/2" snow for the month of January which is just absurd. This winter has had shades of 2011-2012 yes more pronounced cold snaps, but the huge warm ups, and lack of snowfall is 2011 esque. kind of wonder if we are not going to enter a early spring this year. Locally, this winter has by far been much worse than 2011-2012. We had many snow events, but the snow just didn't stick around. This winter, we have had about 3 weeks of snow cover while the ridiculous thaws have wiped things out. Plus, snowfall has been sparse. Compared to avg., super ugly here. I agree with those saying worse than that season. Now, looking long range, clippers can definitely turn that around. The whole pattern still seems goofy to me though. Just very cautious about anything great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 12z GFS is back to what its been teasing me with for days now for when I'll be up in North West Wisconsin. Just give me next weeks mid-week storm and I wont ask or complain for any more. We've had a few spring hiccups this winter but I anticipated there would be going in to it.. I had 07/08 like on the brain for this winter. I knew we wouldn't be dry - it was always what side of the line were you going to be on.. Now that we're all in our prime winter climo - It should be a nice spread the wealth end to the winter of 2017. 2017 gave me the best 2 week's leading up to Xmas morning we've had in some time. That right there gives this winter a B grade from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 8 hours ago, blackrock said: Locally, this winter has by far been much worse than 2011-2012. We had many snow events, but the snow just didn't stick around. This winter, we have had about 3 weeks of snow cover while the ridiculous thaws have wiped things out. Plus, snowfall has been sparse. Compared to avg., super ugly here. I agree with those saying worse than that season. Now, looking long range, clippers can definitely turn that around. The whole pattern still seems goofy to me though. Just very cautious about anything great. December was a very nice stretch here. Far better than anything in 2011-12. Let's get this week out of the way and let winter resume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 hours ago, UMB WX said: 12z GFS is back to what its been teasing me with for days now for when I'll be up in North West Wisconsin. Just give me next weeks mid-week storm and I wont ask or complain for any more. We've had a few spring hiccups this winter but I anticipated there would be going in to it.. I had 07/08 like on the brain for this winter. I knew we wouldn't be dry - it was always what side of the line were you going to be on.. Now that we're all in our prime winter climo - It should be a nice spread the wealth end to the winter of 2017. 2017 gave me the best 2 week's leading up to Xmas morning we've had in some time. That right there gives this winter a B grade from me. It was an awesome December. Definitely not great now but the light is at the end of the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: December was a very nice stretch here. Far better than anything in 2011-12. Let's get this week out of the way and let winter resume. Nice to be seeing some snow showing up for the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 hours ago, blackrock said: Nice to be seeing some snow showing up for the end of next week. What happens remains to be seen, but its the first legit clipper pattern this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 Limited snow in the sub from the upcoming system, but it's fairly impressive in other ways. 18z NAM goes nuts and rapidly deepens the surface low to 973 mb in southwestern Virginia... seems like there may be some convective feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 Tue-Wed system is a tease. Hopefully it can break the bad streak for at least a few people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Not many posts from anyone in Ontario of recent, but all models show a rain to wet snow event for much of the GTA and a snow/sleet storm further East towards Ottawa and Montreal. 18z 12km Nam had 6-8" for Toronto, with amounts closer to 3-4" near the Lake and 7-10" for Hamilton. Further east, Ottawa and Montreal were around 6-10" mixed with some sleet. 12z Euro which seemed to be more stable in terms of the upper level pattern vs the GFS, based on my analysis, had 0.60 qpf of snow for Toronto, or 6" at 10:1 snow ratios. Certainly worth watching, however still no consensus among the models. 18z RGEM looked similar to the 18z NAM/12z Euro at the last frame. GFS seems to be the driest of the models with amounts of 2-4" for the GTA and UKMET being the wettest. Very temperature dependent. Would need to watch for any layer of warmth at 700mb or 850mb that may cause sleet in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: Not many posts from anyone in Ontario of recent, but all models show a rain to wet snow event for much of the GTA and a snow/sleet storm further East towards Ottawa and Montreal. 18z 12km Nam had 6-8" for Toronto, with amounts closer to 3-4" near the Lake and 7-10" for Hamilton. Further east, Ottawa and Montreal were around 6-10" mixed with some sleet. 12z Euro which seemed to be more stable in terms of the upper level pattern vs the GFS, based on my analysis, had 0.60 qpf of snow for Toronto, or 6" at 10:1 snow ratios. Certainly worth watching, however still no consensus among the models. 18z RGEM looked similar to the 18z NAM/12z Euro at the last frame. GFS seems to be the driest of the models with amounts of 2-4" for the GTA and UKMET being the wettest. Very temperature dependent. Would need to watch for any layer of warmth at 700mb or 850mb that may cause sleet in some areas. Yes, I don't know what's happened to snowstormcanuck. Would be nice to get a 6" event out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Yes, I don't know what's happened to snowstormcanuck. Would be nice to get a 6" event out of this. Can't disagree with his absence. All the putrid winters these last few years have taken its toll on alot of members, lol. 0z suite (0z GFS/0z GGEM) have 1-3" across the GTA, lol. 0z NAM has 3-6", which is on its own right now. We can't win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 18z gfs looks like the past 6 weeks of winter has. snows for the northern lakes with very little south of I-80. No real cold until after day 10, but 2' of snow verbatim during the next 10 days here. Could be a decent few weeks for the snow belts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 should get some snow here and hopefully a lot in the belts. Marquette or bust Feb 12-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2017 Author Share Posted January 24, 2017 While not very cold, the upcoming pattern will be more seasonable/wintry than what we've been having lately. Probably a good thing that we aren't looking at severe cold as it would be coming with bare or almost bare ground for a good chunk of the area outside of the Lakes and the area that gets significant snow from today/tomorrow's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 The storm the GFS is showing next Sunday is maximum weenie fuel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 There is a bit of a signal for early February showing up that could yield a nice storm. The Euro and the Euro Ensembles are showing a storm for the region during that period too. The PNA goes back to slightly negative, the AO drops slightly negative and the NAO also goes slighly negative. A good mix for a pattern for us and not the East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 February has been our winter month for well over a decade now. Not sure why but it has been producing insane amounts of snow. Really liking the look from here on forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Cfs weeklies show a cold Feb. Unsure about euro weeklies. One thing is certain the hell of the last 2+ weeks is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 18z GFS and Euro holding serve for early Feb. Timing and track will change of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Yeah Super Bowl weekend is consistently showing up as the next decent storm system to follow. Euro op would be another rainer for most of us, with the GFS consistently showing more of a snow system. Normally wouldn't even look that far out on an op model and take it too seriously, but it's the only thing to look at. Weak clippers don't do much for me. Don't think I can take another cold rainer, so if it's not going to be primarily snow I'll be hoping for a complete whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Super bowl storm is now gone on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Super bowl storm is now gone on the GFS. not gone just south and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 Never fear, the GGEM has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Never fear, the GGEM has it. That's reassuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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