Hoosier Posted January 16, 2017 Author Share Posted January 16, 2017 34 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: EURO with a 983mb low over PAH area on 1-23 no cold air to work with you can tell there is a lack of cold arctic high pressure because the lowest pressure over the US is a 1022mb "high" over AZ Not all that different from the GFS. Would be a slap in the face to get cold rain from that. Previous model runs have shown enough cold air for a band of snow on the western side so hopefully things can trend that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 My new snowblower says expect to get slapped in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanZHP Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 35 minutes ago, Baum said: My new snowblower says expect to get slapped in the face. Well, now I know who to blame this winter on... way to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Not all that different from the GFS. Would be a slap in the face to get cold rain from that. Previous model runs have shown enough cold air for a band of snow on the western side so hopefully things can trend that way. I know '97-'98 is a terrible analog for this winter and that was a super nino.... but these 7-10 day solutions popping up with these cutoff strong lows somewhere in the Ohio or Tenn Valley remind me of the winter storm in early Feb '98. Crazy stuff like rain in Buffalo while snowing like hell in Kentucky. In other words, if enough cold air can be generated from the low itself, we could end up with another weird outcome like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Looks like another two rainers on the way. One for Friday, and one for Sunday. Gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 The next system that has any shot at producing snow is around the 25-26th. Euro is slowly trending north with that, so may favor the MSP to Green Bay area. Looks cold and dry after that until at least early Feb. At least the belts around the lakes will be able to produce for the MI peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Repost from Ben Noll via Twitter: POAMA snow anomaly map for February: Would be a complete disaster if this came to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: Repost from Ben Noll via Twitter: POAMA snow anomaly map for February: Would be a complete disaster if this came to fruition. Lol I never even heard of this map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Lol I never even heard of this map Apparently it's the Australian BOM's experimental long-range model, so uh take that as you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, ConfusedKitten said: Apparently it's the Australian BOM's experimental long-range model, so uh take that as you will. I'm not in the least bit worried because of that....nor would I be excited if it showed blue (even though I still don't get the legend). Just have to muddle through these next 10 days then see what's in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Repost from Ben Noll via Twitter: POAMA snow anomaly map for February: Would be a complete disaster if this came to fruition. Cold and dry. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 4 hours ago, cyclone77 said: The next system that has any shot at producing snow is around the 25-26th. Euro is slowly trending north with that, so may favor the MSP to Green Bay area. Looks cold and dry after that until at least early Feb. At least the belts around the lakes will be able to produce for the MI peeps. That one's dead on arrival. Definitely congrats MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 If that February map is any indication, it might as well just move right into spring any day now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 56 minutes ago, Powerball said: Cold and dry. Nice. FYI, and I put zero faith in an unknown map like that anyway....it's saying that snowfall will be .1 cm a day below normal. That converts to Feb snowfall 1.1" below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 Well, the first step is to get cold more consistently, which it looks like we will eventually. Hopefully snow chances materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 0:21 AM, blackrock said: Yeah, we have probably done some of the worst in terms of lake effect compared to most snow belts this year. Like I mentioned, the 35 mph winds we have had with pretty much every lake effect event this year have either blown the snow waaaay inland, or they have ripped apart snowflake growth and we get the real fine snow that just doesn't pile up. Plus, this area cashes in big time with clippers, as SW winds really enhance snow off the lake...and we often get convergence. This year, we have had zero clippers, so that has not helped us at all. Muskegon is truly a microclimate in itself. We either get the heaviest snows...or some of the lowest. There isn't much "in between" stuff. Winters seem to be either feast or famine here. 150 inch snow seasons....or 70 inches. The lack of clippers has been very annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I'm not in the least bit worried because of that....nor would I be excited if it showed blue (even though I still don't get the legend). Just have to muddle through these next 10 days then see what's in store. Here is the map from December for January fwiw; Was way off for January, but then again, seeing such a snowless January thus far has surprised many of us. It did half decent for December totals in some areas. Based on current indications our best chance at any Winter storm looks to be between Jan 26th and Feb 5th IMO as the pattern reshuffles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Here is the map from December for January fyi; Was way off for January, but then again, seeing such a snowless January thus far has surprised many of us. It did half decent for December totals in some areas. Based on current indications our best chance at any Winter storm looks to be between Jan 26th and Feb 5th IMO as the pattern reshuffles. 'Half decent in some areas' doesn't exactly instill much of confidence ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, harrisale said: 'Half decent in some areas' doesn't exactly instill much of confidence ha ha. I agree. All it takes is one storm for many of us to reach our average monthly snowfall for February. I still remain optimistic, to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: FYI, and I put zero faith in an unknown map like that anyway....it's saying that snowfall will be .1 cm a day below normal. That converts to Feb snowfall 1.1" below normal Meh, I'm ok with a not-so snowy February honestly. A big snowstorm would be nice, but if it doesn't happen, oh well. I like not having to slip and slide up side streets and parking lots to get to places and get things done. It's the cold and cloudy weather that I'm growing increasingly annoyed with. I'm in the "if it's not going to snow, it better be torchy and sunny" camp, although I know that's not typically a realistic expectation for our location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 7 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Here is the map from December for January fwiw; Was way off for January, but then again, seeing such a snowless January thus far has surprised many of us. It did half decent for December totals in some areas. Based on current indications our best chance at any Winter storm looks to be between Jan 26th and Feb 5th IMO as the pattern reshuffles. Have the December map by chance? January technically isn't over as some snow likely will fall in the final days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 hours ago, Powerball said: Meh, I'm ok with a not-so snowy February honestly. A big snowstorm would be nice, but if it doesn't happen, oh well. I like not having to slip and slide up side streets and parking lots to get to places and get things done. It's the cold and cloudy weather that I'm growing increasingly annoyed with. I'm in the "if it's not going to snow, it better be torchy and sunny" camp, although I know that's not typically a realistic expectation for our location. Oh i definitely know what you like. But you are asking for no nickels and dimes and lots of sunshine. In detroit. You are funny haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 9 hours ago, Hoosier said: Well, the first step is to get cold more consistently, which it looks like we will eventually. Hopefully snow chances materialize. I'm dubious of a change to a more wintry pattern end of Jan into Feb. Indices suck. Both the gfs and euro show the AO in positive territory and climbing as we end January. NAO strongly positive. EPO skirting along neutral to slightly positive. For all the MJO fans, it's in a good phase right now and for the next week but as we approach Feb it heads back into the circle of death. The only thing we got going for us as we end the month is a positive PNA which ironically has been negative through most of our previous cold shots this winter. Eventually it'll get cold again this winter....I'm assuming...but if a consistent period of cold with snow does materialize we may have a longer wait to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 The roller coaster will continue till the end...... Up next after warmth, cold. Perhaps this cold cycle could be introduce the clipper pattern, as per each cold cycle has been different to the interactions of cold and precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 That early week system sure is annoying. Might be able to get some wet snow on the fringe at times but overall, doesn't look like anything to write home about. Hopefully it can stick around close enough to act as a block to force the next system a bit farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 12Z GEM would have SOME of us getting some snow late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Hoping for a few flakes at the tail-end of the early week system. GFS showed a weak clipper type system quickly following, but it's pretty meh. Best chance for a widespread/meaningful snow prob won't come until sometime in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 Maybe block isn't the best term to use, but in essence the early week system could force the follow up system farther south if the spacing is minimal. UKMET has a good example of what I'm talking about. That low in the Plains ain't cutting if the setup looks like that. Would I bank on this? No, but it's all we got lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Tough luck winter so far.. Hoping that next week storm that's been persistent on the GFS comes to fruition for NW Wisconsin. Bought my snowmobile and blower just before Christmas and haven't seen more than a half inch of snow since. Now I'm going up to Ashland/Bayfield WI. fishing and snowmobiling and its going to be in the 40's' - Nice for fishing! With this winter its a godsend I have the next month+ off and the freedom to go to the snow. Really hope the backyard trails here get to open up once more as they're a lot of fun and lots of miles of them starting a mile from my house as the crow fly's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I've only looked at the GFS in clown range and that's against my better judgement but knowing I was going to be up north for a bit I've been reaching out in model land out of addiction. Didn't like to read this.. But it could just as well come back tonight...With my luck this yr I'm expecting that "storm" to miss 666 miles south HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF NO LONGER HAS THIS STORM SYSTEM, EVEN THOUGH PREVIOUS RUNS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THEREFORE, THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY NOW THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM FORMING. STORM OR NO STORM, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A COOLING TREND OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS COOLER AIR FILTERS OUT OF CANADA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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