OHweather Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: The long range pattern looks almost as bad as it gets on all the ensembles with a deep AK vortex, 2011-12esque. I suppose with Canada and the Northern Plains as cold as they have been, there may be just enough cold air for a part of the sub to cash in if things align just right, but that overall is a very hostile look for winter prospects if the ensembles verify. It'll be a terrible pattern for sure next week and into the last week of January...I just don't think it'll last. The ensembles are starting to retract the Pac jet again towards the end of their runs, and there's been some agreement on a favorable MJO for cold developing during week 2. We've had no problem popping robust ridging up near the Aleutians when the Pac jet has retracted so far this winter so the hope is that continues. This winter has been remarkable in terms of how quickly the pattern has flipped from blow torch to frigid and back again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 It'll be a terrible pattern for sure next week and into the last week of January...I just don't think it'll last.Yeah, definitely not implying we're going to torch for the rest of the winter. The -EPO has been pretty cyclical so far since the beginning of December and that looks to continue. Would've been nice to at least keep some WPO ridging as opposed to what the ensembles are currently showing in day 10-15, still far enough out despite current excellent ensemble agreement that things can change to slightly less hostile. Hopefully some of us can cash in next weekend through early next week and then more of us outside the lake belts cash in once the pattern improves again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Yeah, definitely not implying we're going to torch for the rest of the winter. The -EPO has been pretty cyclical so far since the beginning of December and that looks to continue. Would've been nice to at least keep some WPO ridging as opposed to what the ensembles are currently showing in day 10-15, still far enough out despite current excellent ensemble agreement that things can change to slightly less hostile. Hopefully some of us can cash in next weekend through early next week and then more of us outside the lake belts cash in once the pattern improves again. The volatility has been pretty remarkable. We've gone from deep AK vortex to anomalous ridge and back a couple of times now. Going from a big ridge over the east to a suppressing amount of cold isn't optimal, so hopefully when the pattern improves again it's more gradual. I guess my one thought is with a wide open Gulf ahead of these cold shots that when/if the EPO flips again, there is probably a window for a deeper cyclone somewhere in the eastern half of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, OHweather said: The volatility has been pretty remarkable. We've gone from deep AK vortex to anomalous ridge and back a couple of times now. Going from a big ridge over the east to a suppressing amount of cold isn't optimal, so hopefully when the pattern improves again it's more gradual. I guess my one thought is with a wide open Gulf ahead of these cold shots that when/if the EPO flips again, there is probably a window for a deeper cyclone somewhere in the eastern half of the county. Always enjoy reading your posts, thanks for them! Any support from the Atlantic (NAO/AO) seems unlikely through February in my opinion. The +QBO this Winter, coupled with the weakening central pacific La Nina, would seem to agree with that. I do agree with your point about the Pacific jet retraction near the end of January and beginning of February which would probably allow for a more -EPO/+PNA pattern to take fold. However, as everything has been this Winter, it might not last before we see another warm-up around mid February, but thats just pure speculation and nothing definitive. I still expect the SE Ridge to be a dominant feature in the coming weeks, common in La Nina's anyways. Any cold that we do see in the East will most likely be transient. In terms of cold, this is a Western North America Winter. Any early thoughts on February-March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 The near-continent wide torch showing up in the 7+ day range is pretty incredible. Only AK is spared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 This winter on paper had been fine here...but it's from an unusual amount of Lake effect snow plus a nearly 11 inch snowstorm which tracked to our west. But the actual pattern had been horrendous. We did ok last year too in a horrendous super nino. So while these times have been trying they SHOULD have been a lot worse. It's like ma nature is trying to help us a bit while karma is trying to even us up a bit from our record winters. This week it looks like everything but the kitchen sink is possible. Then we torch the 3rd week of January before going cold again. Roller coaster continues. This winter has shades of 1949-50 imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Keep the shades pulled weenies. . wasted a month of winter.. Misery loves company and I'm digging to see how torchy and rainy SNE gets to close out January. At least we finally had a great stretch of WX leading up to XMAS and the vintage Grinch WX to ensue until Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 11 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Always enjoy reading your posts, thanks for them! Any support from the Atlantic (NAO/AO) seems unlikely through February in my opinion. The +QBO this Winter, coupled with the weakening central pacific La Nina, would seem to agree with that. I do agree with your point about the Pacific jet retraction near the end of January and beginning of February which would probably allow for a more -EPO/+PNA pattern to take fold. However, as everything has been this Winter, it might not last before we see another warm-up around mid February, but thats just pure speculation and nothing definitive. I still expect the SE Ridge to be a dominant feature in the coming weeks, common in La Nina's anyways. Any cold that we do see in the East will most likely be transient. In terms of cold, this is a Western North America Winter. Any early thoughts on February-March? I agree with your comments about the lack of Atlantic help largely continuing. Some SE ridge isn't terrible for this sub-forum, although this winter it's seemingly oscillated back and forth between supression and SE ridge on steroids at times. Going into the winter my thought was February would be a milder month, but I do like the chances for a cooldown around the turn of the month plus or minus a few days. We'll see if that's a transient cool down before milder weather does take over or if it's more persistent...if we keep with the trends this winter it'll be the former. Some of the winter analogs end up having cooler Marches, for now I don't see reason to deviate from that as long as we stay in a La Nina-esq pattern, but if the La Nina continues to weaken and the tropics stop acting like one over the next month or so then perhaps March will need to be tweaked some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Why, the end of the 12z ECMWF looks positively toasty, and quite wet, for much of Indiana and Ohio! Verbatim, upper 50s to mid 60s statewide. I mean, if we HAVE to endure a relentless torch in the middle of winter, it might as well feel like mid spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Both the Euro and GFS have a decent system around the 21st. Would be another rainer for most, but this one would have the possibility at some decent severe. That's what I'll be watching since I've pretty much lost interest in this weekend's system for this area. Would be pretty sweet to get a severe event/chase in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 If tonight's Euro weeklies are right, many will be hoping for some warmer weather by the end of February. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, roardog said: If tonight's Euro weeklies are right, many will be hoping for some warmer weather by the end of February. lol Yeah, full on winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Impressively warm 850 mb temps being depicted next weekend... +14°C easy for many areas in the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 When the crazy Canadian looks like this 10 days out we should get a surprise blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 00z EC has widespread mid-upper 60s as far north as northern IL next Saturday. Has ORD hitting 68 lol. Dews well above 60 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 43 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 00z EC has widespread mid-upper 60s as far north as northern IL next Saturday. Has ORD hitting 68 lol. Dews well above 60 as well. Rain? With temps like that there almost has to be at this time of year, probably some tstms too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: 00z EC has widespread mid-upper 60s as far north as northern IL next Saturday. Has ORD hitting 68 lol. Dews well above 60 as well. Better not have crappy mid level lapse rates, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 This is sort of a weird look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: This is sort of a weird look Euro been showing a lot of weird looks lately and none of them coming true, I'll chalk this one up as the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: This is sort of a weird look Noticed this same kind of weirdness on other models too in long range. Showing everal strong lows in the vicinity of one another. I suspect the models are unable to handle the calculations of what will ultimately be realized the week of January 23rd........ .....the QUADPHASER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, buckeye said: Noticed this same kind of weirdness on other models too in long range. Showing everal strong lows in the vicinity of one another. I suspect the models are unable to handle the calculations of what will ultimately be realized the week of January 23rd........ .....the QUADPHASER Wasn't really even thinking about the multiple surface lows, but more about the size of the trough and circulation. But as far as multiple lows, this image is even funnier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Wasn't really even thinking about the multiple surface lows, but more about the size of the trough and circulation. But as far as multiple lows, this image is even funnier Looks like the Detroit Red Wings record this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, ConfusedKitten said: Looks like the Detroit Red Wings record this year. LOL, and is as unbelievable as the Bluejackets record this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, buckeye said: LOL, and is as unbelievable as the Bluejackets record this year For real, I've done a complete 180 on Torts since the world cup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Wasn't really even thinking about the multiple surface lows, but more about the size of the trough and circulation. But as far as multiple lows, this image is even funnier That pretty much sums up this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Wasn't really even thinking about the multiple surface lows, but more about the size of the trough and circulation. But as far as multiple lows, this image is even funnierAlso the run of the mill 570 dm 500 mb heights over southern Hudson Bay. Pretty typical for mid-late January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Looking more and more like Feb is a cold month. I have no doubt winter makes a return after a few weeks hiatus but the question is will there be a lot of snow with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 47 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Looking more and more like Feb is a cold month. I have no doubt winter makes a return after a few weeks hiatus but the question is will there be a lot of snow with it? Any reason why you think that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 2 hours ago, Maxim said: Any reason why you think that? Various local winter outlooks were calling for that, and one of my favorite retired METS Bill Deedler actually said Jan had a good chance to be warmer than normal with a turn to colder in Feb. Our recent nice track record for Feb doesnt hurt either. But the main reason I posted that is because the CFS grows colder and colder by the day with its looking towards Feb. I also believe euro weeklies show this as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Various local winter outlooks were calling for that, and one of my favorite retired METS Bill Deedler actually said Jan had a good chance to be warmer than normal with a turn to colder in Feb. Our recent nice track record for Feb doesnt hurt either. But the main reason I posted that is because the CFS grows colder and colder by the day with its looking towards Feb. I also believe euro weeklies show this as wellAlso the regular EPS, GEFS and GEPS have all been very consistent in depicting the flip back to a colder pattern the last week of January the past several days. The pattern change they're showing is also supported by the progged MJO phases. Hopefully this flip has staying power and it's accompanied by opportunities for snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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