Stebo Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 33 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: laughing at the long range GFS, it has no clue right now Why because it doesn't show snow for your location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 24 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Who knows if this will hold but the trend right now is toward a more intense secondary/frontal wave riding up from the south around the 29th-30th after the initial system ejects into the upper Midwest. Cold air generally lags behind though so most of the precip is rain. Yeah the models have been hinting at the secondary system for a while now, going to be pretty moisture laden too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 11 minutes ago, Stebo said: Why because it doesn't show snow for your location? I meant because every run is vastly different in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I meant because every run is vastly different in the long range. So like normal with the long range GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2016 Author Share Posted November 23, 2016 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Yeah the models have been hinting at the secondary system for a while now, going to be pretty moisture laden too. Hey, are you familiar with the recent ECMWF upgrade? I'm confused as to what was upgraded (the entire suite or just the ensembles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hey, are you familiar with the recent ECMWF upgrade? I'm confused as to what was upgraded (the entire suite or just the ensembles) Quote Description of upgrade IFS Cycle 43r1 is an upgrade with many scientific contributions, including changes in data assimilation (both in the EDA and the 4DVAR); in the use of observations; and in modelling. Moreover, ENS hourly fields will be available up to T+90 for the Boundary Conditions optional program. See 'Impact on Users' below for further information. Please note that hourly ENS fields will not be added to the Real Time Catalogue. With this cycle upgrade, the medium-range ensemble and its monthly extension see a major upgrade in the dynamical ocean model (NEMO): the resolution is increased from 1 degree and 42 layers to 0.25 degrees and 75 layers (ORCA025Z75). Furthermore, NEMO model version v3.4.1 with the interactive sea-ice model (LIM2) is implemented. The ocean and sea-ice components of the ENS initial conditions are provided by the new ocean analysis and reanalysis suite ORAS5, which uses the new ocean model and revised ensemble perturbation method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 1 hour ago, Stebo said: So like normal with the long range GFS. I am kind of guessing that the ECMWF has not been that consistent at 7 days plus, due to lots going on in the Pacific jet stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Hey, are you familiar with the recent ECMWF upgrade? I'm confused as to what was upgraded (the entire suite or just the ensembles) No I am not other than the Euro weeklies going out to 46 days now, I do believe there is a change coming in the op Euro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Looking like next weekend could be quite a wind producer for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Yeah there's been a parallel version of the Euro running on WxBell for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 20 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I meant because every run is vastly different in the long range. Been very consistent showing an active pattern. Lots of systems, some nice cutters. Not always snow for us but the western half of the sub should be excited. Can't expect fantasy range to be useful for looking at much more than large scale pattern shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Its 240 hours out, but this image speaks for itself. Finally starting to see some ridging around the Aleutians, which would translate to a more -EPO/WPO pattern, as the Aleutian Low breaks down which has been hemming us from seeing any sustained cold anomalies across the entire continent. If you were to analyze the wind anomaly as well, you'd see a strong Pacific jet and thus would produce a stormy pattern in the region for the first 2 weeks of December atleast. In addition, we can see some weak ridging around Greenland which will help to produce some cold ahead of any storm system in the area. A more classic La Nina like pattern so to speak. Fun times, hopefully! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2016 Author Share Posted November 25, 2016 There's a few entertaining members in the GEFS regarding the early to midweek period. Nothing to really take seriously at this point but still being several days out with the various pieces of energy involved, wouldn't be surprised to see some significant adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Yeah, the Pacific seems to start cooperating next week, which is encouraging. I'm still not sold on anything more than seasonable cold and a few high cutters though, as the main PV and cold source stays away. The W. Hem cold pool is still anemic. We need that PV to swing over on this side of the hemisphere to really cash in on that pattern. If that would actually happen with an in-situ Nina gradient pattern, it could turn into some serious $$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 GFS way out in fantasy at 300 hours tries to setup the Siberian express, dumping very cold air in the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 CFSv2 recently is developing that classic active Nina pattern for Dec with a dominant W trough, very neg temp anomalies over NW Canada, a SE ridge and a pronounced gradient through the Midwest, although just the fact of it being the CFS introduces some question into that. Reminds me of the 98-99 and 07-08 composites. I'm just glad to see an Aleutian ridge. Yes, snow interests would get filled as well by shifting in the baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2016 Author Share Posted November 25, 2016 17 minutes ago, andyhb said: CFSv2 recently is developing that classic active Nina pattern for Dec with a dominant W trough, very neg temp anomalies over NW Canada, a SE ridge and a pronounced gradient through the Midwest, although just the fact of it being the CFS introduces some question into that. Reminds me of the 98-99 and 07-08 composites. I'm just glad to see an Aleutian ridge. Yes, snow interests would get filled as well by shifting in the baroclinic zone. Not to get into the whole regional battle thing but it really does look like more of a Plains/Midwest pattern than one that would favor the east coast. Doesn't look like much of a -NAO to try to keep the southeast ridge from flexing. Assuming this gradient pattern pans out, it could get frustrating for those looking for sustained cold/snowcover but it shouldn't be lacking in activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 17 hours ago, Hoosier said: Not to get into the whole regional battle thing but it really does look like more of a Plains/Midwest pattern than one that would favor the east coast. Doesn't look like much of a -NAO to try to keep the southeast ridge from flexing. Assuming this gradient pattern pans out, it could get frustrating for those looking for sustained cold/snowcover but it shouldn't be lacking in activity. A lot of people were hinting at a good winter for this region especially the eastern lakes, might be a situation where the best stuff is nosed a bit west and is centered over the Great Lakes as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 27, 2016 Author Share Posted November 27, 2016 So the Euro and JMA look pretty similar in 7-8 days. Much will depend on the timing of that southern stream wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 GEFS spilling very cold air into the western states, western Canada and Alaska go in the deep freeze, it's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 18Z GFS has a Toledo/Southern MI Special Blizzard in the long range Maximum Weenie Mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 I will give that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Good lord why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 27, 2016 Author Share Posted November 27, 2016 Alright Hillsdale, your quota has been reached. No more 10+ day GFS maps the rest of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Alright Hillsdale, your quota has been reached. No more 10+ day GFS maps the rest of the year. Agreed, gotta alleviate the boredom somehow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 This has been a well-agreed-upon WPO/EPO cold dump into the Rockies for several days now on the ensembles. Have to like the odds of the pattern bearing fruit somewhere in the sub during the first half of December. For now any NAO blocking looks anemic or missing completely which bodes well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Ah, the long-range GFS is such a tease. Note: the 12z GFS has a Denver-to-Chicago tease storm at about hour 264. One thing looks relatively solid at this point- colder temps into western Canada and the NW USA. I am happy to see that on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Ah, shucks. 20" to 2" in one run. Can't say I'm the least bit surprised, although December 5-11 is still a time to watch. It's the most wonderful (and stressful) time of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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