snowlover2 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 0z GFS has a major ice storm for next weekend for southern sub meanwhile 0z GGEM has a snowstorm for IL/IN/OH. Going to be a fun one to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 Won't bother posting the GFS ice map but needless to say, wow. What would be particularly concerning is if multiple metro areas end up in a zone of heavy ice. Bad enough if it were to happen in less populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 This with the wind potential could be downright frightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 This is just epic. A 100+ degree difference from western Minnesota to the bootheel of Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 0Z Euro looks to have gotten a tiny bit colder if I'm reading it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 00z Euro has much more of a snow component than the GFS. Crippling band of ice again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z Euro has much more of a snow component than the GFS. Crippling band of ice again. Do you have ice output? Just curious some of the values. Just having a guess looking at the maps, I think it is pretty significant here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: Do you have ice output? Just curious some of the values. Just having a guess looking at the maps, I think it is pretty significant here. There's an enormous band of a quarter inch or greater (hundreds of miles wide). Including a band of 2"+ in parts of IL westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: There's an enormous band of a quarter inch or greater (hundreds of miles wide). Including a band of 2"+ in parts of IL westward. What site you getting that output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: What site you getting that output? Eurowx.com The ice map looks underdone on the northern end, so I added on, but even taking it verbatim has probably close to 200 miles wide of a quarter inch+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 The one thing that is becoming more plausible is the crazy strong polar ridge and copious amounts of moisture. Pretty consistent trend so far on most of the models even this far out, not to say it can't change. But one thing I've noticed also is, if this does pan out, as this high finally moves out it's going to leave a vacuum cleaner sucking up warm air from the gulf with temps possibly in the mid 50's at least as far north as IN MI border, maybe even a shot at 60 or more south of I70. That's just nuts for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Eurowx.com The ice map looks underdone on the northern end, so I added on, but even taking it verbatim has probably close to 200 miles wide of a quarter inch+. Yeah, sucks Weatherbell doesn't have Ice output, or point soundings. About the only things they don't have though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 06Z GFS gets even more ballistic with the temp gradient across the boundary. Not as robust with the QPF, but plenty of ice being thrown around still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 The consistency of the runs is starting to get hard to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 6 hours ago, Stebo said: Yeah, sucks Weatherbell doesn't have Ice output, or point soundings. About the only things they don't have though lol. While it doesn't have an accumulated ice option, the wxbell ECMWF 0.10° Regional Surface page has an option for ptype. It will give you a good idea of various ptype accumulations as you toggle through the hrs. Just cross reference what the QPF forecast was for a given area/time. One thing I will say about the EC ptype is that it seems to show an unusual lack of sleet. 925mb temps are well below freezing in about the northern half of the forecast freezing rain band at each time period. To me that would indicate more sleet in the northern half of the displayed ZR band than ZR. Still a potentially devastating ice storm showing up in the long range on both of the main globals, but it may be a bit more localized than what they are showing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 I have a lot of respect for Todd Holsten at IWX. He is a seasoned met to doesn't hype events, so when he honks, my ears perk up. This raises my concern level from a 3 to a 5. Thereafter most significant sw disturbance expected to break off out of nepac gyre and dig well south into nrn Mexico by next weekend. Strong ridging steering through the nrn lakes and swd suppression of sfc frontal zone south of the OH river spells trouble here. While notable differences exist with intensity/placement of low baroclinic zone...EC/GFS share remarkable agreement aloft through early Sat before diverging which lends increasing confidence of a potential significant snow and/or ice storm this weekend. Thus little argument with ramping model based blended pops through next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 The GFS continues to cut off the upper level low (which the Euro is not doing) and therefore precip and the wintry threat is confined to southern MO and into southern IL on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: While it doesn't have an accumulated ice option, the wxbell ECMWF 0.10° Regional Surface page has an option for ptype. It will give you a good idea of various ptype accumulations as you toggle through the hrs. Just cross reference what the QPF forecast was for a given area/time. One thing I will say about the EC ptype is that it seems to show an unusual lack of sleet. 925mb temps are well below freezing in about the northern half of the forecast freezing rain band at each time period. To me that would indicate more sleet in the northern half of the displayed ZR band than ZR. Still a potentially devastating ice storm showing up in the long range on both of the main globals, but it may be a bit more localized than what they are showing at this point. Didn't know about that, thanks for the find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 This may be a little useful too... http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?mod=ncep_geps&run=00&stn_type=postagestamp&stn=PT&lang=en&map=na&hh=156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 We are "only" about 4-4.5 days out from the initial stage of this, so perhaps we will be able to nail down that aspect (where the front slows/stalls) soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 12z Euro looks a little slower ejecting the main piece of energy. Not sure but this could ultimately result in a warmer/northwest solution as the surface high has more time to weaken/move away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 We are goin from sub zero temps, to 50's, to a possible snowstorm/ice storm in a 7 day period. What a pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 Surface low tracks from around Quincy to northern Lake Michigan on the 12z Euro. Wide area of ice again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Looks like 12z GFS shifted the heavier freezing rain south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 Started a thread for next weekend https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49531-january-13-16-potential-major-winter-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Sure am looking for an end to this trough in the west/ridge in the east pattern at some point soon. Long range GFS is ugly, with more of the same obnoxious thaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 4 hours ago, blackrock said: Sure am looking for an end to this trough in the west/ridge in the east pattern at some point soon. Long range GFS is ugly, with more of the same obnoxious thaws. Understatement. As long as we are in this pattern, systems will almost always screw the entire subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Eyeballing the last few days of January into early February for another -EPO cold dump. If we keep getting cold shots it'll eventually snow again. In the meantime the torch next week will try to thaw some of the ice that has developed on the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Eyeballing the last few days of January into early February for another -EPO cold dump. If we keep getting cold shots it'll eventually snow again. In the meantime the torch next week will try to thaw some of the ice that has developed on the Great Lakes. The long range pattern looks almost as bad as it gets on all the ensembles with a deep AK vortex, 2011-12esque. I suppose with Canada and the Northern Plains as cold as they have been, there may be just enough cold air for a part of the sub to cash in if things align just right, but that overall is a very hostile look for winter prospects if the ensembles verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Looking great for 4-8" across the GTA tomorrow night into Tuesday before it transitions over to rain. Amounts will be closer to 4" near the Lake and 5-7" 401 and north. Could be closer to 8" locally in/around NE GTA (Markham). Slow morning commute is on tap Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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