Stebo Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: 12z Euro is supportive. I do think they fixed the snow map issue over at weatherbell as well with respect to the maps showing snow in situations where it should be freezing rain. This model run shows precipitation falling with surface temps below freezing but no snow accumulations. Also the GEM is in support of the potential ice storm/snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yeah I'll pass on the ice apocalypse. But everyone is right that there is some model agreement for it and a prolonged event at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Two inches of sleet is the only time I have nearly died shoveling. It was like trying to move a massive amount of wet, cold cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Amazing how every storm delivers rain to SE Michigan. I personally don't care, but it's kind of ridiculous. Cold, then rain, then cold, then rain. The UP is going to be epic buried by day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 hours ago, Indystorm said: Yes, the discussed scenario for ice is starting to make me nervous here in central IN. Depends on the baroclinic set up geographically. of course. But this would be for mid January. Climo wise I usually don't have to start thinking about ice storms here till Feb. And there are reports by INDNR of armadillos moving into southern IN expanding their range northward. Something is happening. Something is happening alright. Pretty bad when ATL is going to ge more snow in 1 day than I've had all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 12z EC has a pretty significant ice storm for southeast IA/northern IL for the 14th/15th. The signal is definitely there for something quite significant next weekend. Looks like we may have something to track if trends continue. The ice aspect seems to be showing up fairly consistently (between the EC/GFS) for such a long way out there in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Jonger said: Amazing how every storm delivers rain to SE Michigan. I personally don't care, but it's kind of ridiculous. Cold, then rain, then cold, then rain. The UP is going to be epic buried by day 15. Let's wait and see what happens. December actually saw below normal precip but well above normal snow, so it's not like we have had a surplus of winter rain thus far. The extended looks much more active that it did a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 0Z GFS lost the system, but has potential system on Friday now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 6 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z GFS lost the system, but has potential system on Friday now I didn't look at the 0z run, but the 6z has it, albeit suppressed, with OV getting hammered with ice. Precipitation doesn't get flung north as far as earlier runs. I have a feeling something bad's gonna happen to some of us next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: I didn't look at the 0z run, but the 6z has it, albeit suppressed, with OV getting hammered with ice. Precipitation doesn't get flung north as far as earlier runs. I have a feeling something bad's gonna happen to some of us next weekend. I haven't dug into soundings but just looking at the 2m temps and precip on the 00z euro, it looks a bit scary. It has what apprears to be a very long duration freezing rain event for central and southern IN, and OH. The only thing worse than snowless winter weather, is snowless winter weather with no power. I have no desire to go through that. Not to sound like I'm wishing this on someone else but the good news is the target area will most likely change this far out. Of course best case scenario is there won't be a target freezing area for any of us, and it ends up being a sleet or snow storm for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 00z Euro had big ice over a pretty large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Canadianhttp://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=zr_acc&rh=2017010712&fh=228&r=us_mw&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 The consensus is that somewhere from the Ohio river to Northern IL/Southern Lower is going to see a major ice storm. Time to start model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 12z Euro with a 1049mb high over MN next Friday afternoon with the ULL across the Four Corners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I think this one's gonna dig per 12z Euro. Will be guardedly obsessing over model runs this upcoming week. Glad I have a fireplace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2.00"-2.50" QPF For northern IL on this run with a big front end thump it looks like before going over to a mixed bag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Euro is EXTREMELY moist. Some places finish with over 2"+ QPF all frozen. Not to mention euro continuing the ice trend that the 12z GFS did not. Has areas of over 2" of ice in OK/MO/IL and about 1" of ice in IN/ S MI. and Heavy snow to the north of that. Everyone north of a KC-Burlington(IA)-Chicago to just north of the MI border gets hit good with heavy snow. Ice exists on the southern fringe of that area. Quite the storm showing up in the (very)long range. EDIT: would be extremely surprised to see anything close to this verify given the crap out trend so far this season and how far out it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Massive Ice Storm on the EURO for MO/IL that run 1-3" of Ice for a large area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 GFS has 5.5" of rain for KCVG..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Considering the Euro has been notoriously dry since the last upgrade, I would really be paying attention with it showing this much moisture already. The Gulf is as wide open as possible for this time of year as well so high QPF output is not shocking. Especially when you throw moisture laden air over a strong baroclinic zone, those are always efficient at wringing out the atmosphere of all the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 18z GFS now trending in the direction of ice and a lot of it for greater swaths of MO, IL, and IN for the upcoming Fri/Sat period next week. Both GFS and Euro are moisture rich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Low-mid 60s dews in the warm sector will do that in a January overrunning setup. Just comes down to a) does the no-Pac kicker solution work out as the EC/GEM suggest and b ) the speed of the wave as it ejects from the 4 corners area. A honkin 1050mb high should have no problem supplying the cold and I'd be wary of taking a solution that erodes that colossal cold dome too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 This really does look like it has the potential to get ugly if we get the EC/GGEM type evolution. 1"+ of ice is problematic enough without wind, but that strong surface high suggests that there will be some wind even in the absence of a strong surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This really does look like it has the potential to get ugly if we get the EC/GGEM type evolution. 1"+ of ice is problematic enough without wind, but that strong surface high suggests that there will be some wind even in the absence of a strong surface low. Good thing is -- ice storms require a fragile/marginal setup and we're still 5-6 days out, so there's plenty of time for this to change. It'd be panic city if this sucker was in the 3-4 day wheelhouse of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 3 hours ago, csnavywx said: Good thing is -- ice storms require a fragile/marginal setup and we're still 5-6 days out, so there's plenty of time for this to change. It'd be panic city if this sucker was in the 3-4 day wheelhouse of the Euro. True. Besides amounts, what's striking on some of the models is the wide area that would be under the gun for significant ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 Before we get to whatever happens on the weekend, there's the early week system and another one right on its heels for Thursday (going to have to be pretty far north to get in on the goods again). At least it's getting active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 00z GFS looks like it's gonna go big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Before we get to whatever happens on the weekend, there's the early week system and another one right on its heels for Thursday (going to have to be pretty far north to get in on the goods again). At least it's getting active. Not to mention the insane cold being advertised (at least up this way). 0z GFS has parts of MN in the -40s. Euro onboard for serious cold, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: 00z GFS looks like it's gonna go big. Ha...and that's an understatement. 1054mb high pressing down on a 1020mb inverted surface trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Ha...and that's an understatement. 1054mb high pressing down on a 1020mb inverted surface trough. That high has gotta be close to record setting. I've seen stronger than that, but farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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