michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 hours ago, OHweather said: Yeah we have a bleak 10 day period coming up here I think. Already signs of another wave train in the N Pac just after mid month which could cause another EPO drop and bring back cold by late January. This has been an odd winter so far...no pattern has really locked in for any period of time, and the ups and downs have been rather extreme. Roller coaster from start to finish. I have no doubt we have more depressing bleak times as well as more exciting orgasmic ones as well in the coming months lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Pattern isn't the coldest but there should be some wintry opportunities coming up next week, more favored the farther north you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Cold air source gets demolished on the long range GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 past few runs of the long range GFS are pret-ty toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well the GFS has an interesting storm for next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Stebo said: Well the GFS has an interesting storm for next weekend... Epic ice storm. Like barbaric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 I mean really. Just posting this because it's insane. DO NOT TAKE LITERALLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I mean really. Just posting this because it's insane. DO NOT TAKE LITERALLY. GFS partying hard tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 24 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Epic ice storm. Like barbaric. We'd get so much sleet here. Probably over 1.5" liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: We'd get so much sleet here. Probably over 1.5" liquid equivalent. Sleet storm for the ages for southern MI. Looks like around 2" of precip all sleet. IIRC ratios for sleet are 3:1, so 6" of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Sleet storm for the ages for southern MI. Looks like around 2" of precip all sleet. IIRC ratios for sleet are 3:1, so 6" of sleet? It can vary a bit but 3:1 is typically a pretty good way to go. After GHD and 12/28/15, I'd probably vomit at the prospect of another big sleet storm. Give me snow or ice. Don't need 3" of ice though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It can vary a bit but 3:1 is typically a pretty good way to go. After GHD and 12/28/15, I'd probably vomit at the prospect of another big sleet storm. Give me snow or ice. Don't need 3" of ice though lol, I always thought a major sleet storm like that would be awesome to see, but it would be hard to enjoy it knowing you're missing out on a heavy snow event. It wouldn't be so bad if you could get a few consolation inches on the tail-end to cover up the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: lol, I always thought a major sleet storm like that would be awesome to see, but it would be hard to enjoy it knowing you're missing out on a heavy snow event. It wouldn't be so bad if you could get a few consolation inches on the tail-end to cover up the sleet. Well, GHD did have some snow on the back end in LAF...about 2-3" iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: lol, I always thought a major sleet storm like that would be awesome to see, but it would be hard to enjoy it knowing you're missing out on a heavy snow event. It wouldn't be so bad if you could get a few consolation inches on the tail-end to cover up the sleet. I'd love to see as much sleet as the GFS is pumping out just once in a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Will be interesting to see where this freezing line finally sets up. Could be 100-200 miles different from what the GFS is showing now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 hours ago, Stebo said: I'd love to see as much sleet as the GFS is pumping out just once in a lifetime. As Ji once said, "sleet is like kissing your sister" lol I think it was January '94. Epic overrunning event that stretched from MW to the east coast. An entire day of sleet with temps in the teens. I think we got like 2" of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, buckeye said: As Ji once said, "sleet is like kissing your sister" lol I think it was January '94. Epic overrunning event that stretched from MW to the east coast. An entire day of sleet with temps in the teens. I think we got like 2" of it. December 28th (or so) last year, I got 4 or 5 inches of sleet(plus an inch or two of snow) Awful, it stayed on the ground for over a month, it really was a true glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 10 hours ago, Hoosier said: I mean really. Just posting this because it's insane. DO NOT TAKE LITERALLY. Saving for posterity. And maybe future AVI use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 11 hours ago, Hoosier said: I mean really. Just posting this because it's insane. DO NOT TAKE LITERALLY. I think that's how the bible says Fort Wayne ends. Joking aside, there is a lot of support on the models for a potential icy - overrunning set up late next week. After a couple of rainers they all sort of agree on a very strong high pressing in from the northern plains as it gets 'attacked' by a juiced-up southern branch. The million dollar question is where the magic boundary sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS on crack? About spit my coffee out on the 12z snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, CoachLB said: GFS on crack? About spit my coffee out on the 12z snowfall amounts. Snowfall? What about the ice? Almost 2" of ice on that run for next weekend. Good thing is that its highly unlikely that a 1017mb low is going to push out a 1053mb high like its nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, snowlover2 said: Snowfall? What about the ice? Almost 2" of ice on that run for next weekend. Good thing is that its highly unlikely that a 1017mb low is going to push out a 1053mb low like its nothing. Tropical tidbits snowfall map. I'm pretty sure it's messed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Pretty strong agreement on GFS, Euro, and Canadian that a strong baroclinic zone will set up somewhere, but not on where exactly. Someone could end up with a pretty good ice storm. I'd rather be on the rainy side of this one. These things like to park along the Ohio though, so count me concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, buckeye said: I think that's how the bible says Fort Wayne ends. Joking aside, there is a lot of support on the models for a potential icy - overrunning set up late next week. After a couple of rainers they all sort of agree on a very strong high pressing in from the northern plains as it gets 'attacked' by a juiced-up southern branch. The million dollar question is where the magic boundary sets up. Yeah, good signal and the overall setup would favor ice. The strength of the sfc high on the GFS is particularly impressive, as it's not very often you see a >1050 mb high in that position. Might have little or no snowcover in the area where ice would be most favored but that is not necessarily a requirement. Will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 32 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Snowfall? What about the ice? Almost 2" of ice on that run for next weekend. Good thing is that its highly unlikely that a 1017mb low is going to push out a 1053mb high like its nothing. At the surface sure, the ridging aloft is weaker and the advection is stronger, which allows for the warm air to spill over top the cold air still in place for many days. This setup screams someone getting crushed with ice, and there will be someone getting a good amount of snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 What I find very interesting that will prolong this event is the high moves in tandem with the low to the south, which keeps the low from going insane on strength but also gives the low no exit path so it continues to move slowly with the strong high to the north. Usually we already have the high in place and the low moves into it or underneath it if it is too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 There are some interesting ingredients in place for next weekend's event, but multiple things that can go wrong and tons of uncertainty. There's good agreement among the op runs and ensembles for strong upper level confluence behind a trough moving across eastern Canada next weekend, placing a very strong surface high just north of the Great Lakes. There is no -NAO and this feature is transient, so the high doesn't sit in one spot, it keeps moving. The ensemble mean is "only" in the 1037mb range, but many individual members and some op model runs have a 1040-1050mb (or stronger) high in the general vicinity next weekend. Such a strong high, while transient, would certainly be very effective at locking low level cold air in for a couple of days as it slides by to the north. The uncertainty here revolves mainly around how the energy will come out of the west. The flow over the eastern CONUS is rather confluent between the trough over eastern Canada and the SE ridge, so any storm will probably try to shear out as it comes east if it comes east too quickly. On the other hand, with no -NAO the strong surface high and low level cold will be a transient feature, so if energy comes out too slowly it may warm up enough ahead of the storm to shift the wintry precip threat farther north. The pros to this event are obviously a source of good low-level cold, even if its transient, and a few days of return flow over and off of the Gulf ahead of the potential storm, and a strong baroclinic zone...so there could be a good amount of QPF. It's not inconceivable that the trough comes out of the west in multiple pieces and nothing really amplifies, which would shift the threat south and result in a much less expansive area of wintry precip. It's also not impossible that the high slides east quicker or the trough comes out of the west slower and we get more of a cutter with the wintry threat shifted north. Obviously, the middle ground is intriguing, but we have a ton of time for things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The length of this ice event would be quite impressive. GFS depicting nearly 48 hours of steady freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yes, the discussed scenario for ice is starting to make me nervous here in central IN. Depends on the baroclinic set up geographically. of course. But this would be for mid January. Climo wise I usually don't have to start thinking about ice storms here till Feb. And there are reports by INDNR of armadillos moving into southern IN expanding their range northward. Something is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 12z Euro is supportive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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