Jrad08 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Jan 5-6 timeframe has something for us OH folks if it digs a little. Weenie mode for the Canadian had over a foot in central OH. GFS and Euro taking baby steps toward a more favorable solution as well. I like to be on the north side this far out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Ryan Maue tweeted this 12z Euro 10-day 1-inch snowfall map. It's lookin' like snoozeville for the Iowa to Chicago corridor for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: Ryan Maue tweeted this 12z Euro 10-day 1-inch snowfall map. It's lookin' like snoozeville for the Iowa to Chicago corridor for a while. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: lol Good news with that prog is that it can't trend worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Good news with that prog is that it can't trend worse. lol yep. And another good bit of news is that the rain on Monday won't do any real damage, as there is no snow cover left to damage. I'm hoping that the Euro is on the right track and give the Ohio folks a decent system at least. Would hate to see the ultra suppressed version that some previous runs had shown win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 18z GFS gives me a birthday present; a snowstorm. It's on Friday the 13th so I may as well go ahead and start a thread for it now. It's gon happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 23 hours ago, cyclone77 said: 18z GFS gives me a birthday present; a snowstorm. It's on Friday the 13th so I may as well go ahead and start a thread for it now. It's gon happen. Hahahaha. Our best hope ATTM I'm afraid is that some small-scale feature will slip in last minute that is undetectable by the big boy long range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 hour ago, ConvectiveIA said: Hahahaha. Our best hope ATTM I'm afraid is that some small-scale feature will slip in last minute that is undetectable by the big boy long range models. Yeah that'd be nice. At least it can't get any quieter than this I guess. Until then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Pretty impressive for this time of the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Nice looking system on the 00z GFS next weekend for part of the area. GGEM is suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 12/31/2016 at 10:19 PM, Maxim said: Pretty impressive for this time of the year... Hey Alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 12 hours ago, Hoosier said: Nice looking system on the 00z GFS next weekend for part of the area. GGEM is suppressed. 12z GFS still has it but farther south. I think a southern/suppressed solution is certainly possible. We don't really have a real -NAO and the PNA remains negative overall, but it looks like there's some transient blocking that occurs in SE Canada just in time for this system, so it will be difficult to get it to go too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 12z Euro with an ultimate kick in the crotch. After the long cold and dry stretch we get another rainer the middle of next week for much of the sub. Followed by what looks like more cold and dry. Sure hope that's wrong lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 If anyone pays attention from 6 hours to the next, the models are changing big time every run. One trend that is apparent...is it is indeed going to be a roller coaster winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 23 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 12z Euro with an ultimate kick in the crotch. After the long cold and dry stretch we get another rainer the middle of next week for much of the sub. Followed by what looks like more cold and dry. Sure hope that's wrong lol. Could envision that happening, unfortunately. The background pattern doesn't favor suppressed storms and it's really just a fluke/bad timing that it looks like the weekend storm will head south. Hopefully we can shift that rainer south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: 12z GFS still has it but farther south. I think a southern/suppressed solution is certainly possible. We don't really have a real -NAO and the PNA remains negative overall, but it looks like there's some transient blocking that occurs in SE Canada just in time for this system, so it will be difficult to get it to go too far north. According to what I saw from Wxbell, the NAO is currently slightly negative but heading positive between the 5th and 7th. The AO is neutrual to slightly positive and will remain so through end of week. PNA continues to be negative. Put all those together and I would have guessed we'd be dealing with a rainer....not suppression. But yea, that buzz saw in se Canada along with the fast flow and crappy spacing is about as hostile to a threat for our sub as you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 9 hours ago, buckeye said: According to what I saw from Wxbell, the NAO is currently slightly negative but heading positive between the 5th and 7th. The AO is neutrual to slightly positive and will remain so through end of week. PNA continues to be negative. Put all those together and I would have guessed we'd be dealing with a rainer....not suppression. But yea, that buzz saw in se Canada along with the fast flow and crappy spacing is about as hostile to a threat for our sub as you can get. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, buy it looks to me like the current driver is the strong -EPO ridge bleeding cold air over the next several days, causing the suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 This is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 hour ago, ConvectiveIA said: This is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Reminding me of the late '80's and 90's winters minus 1987. Cold and dry than wet and mild. Never good to see animated pics in the mid range discussion thread. By the time we come out of this month long dry spell we'll have folks concerned about sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 hours ago, Baum said: Reminding me of the late '80's and 90's winters minus 1987. Cold and dry than wet and mild. Never good to see animated pics in the mid range discussion thread. By the time we come out of this month long dry spell we'll have folks concerned about sun angle. Speaking of dry, there was a decent swath of drier than average running from the southern Plains into part of this region last month. Though in the areas that received decent snow, it's not something you really think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 When all the western energy either shears out or lifts northeast, you get that precip map. Nothing has been able to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 16 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I gotta say, it's crazy looking into the mid/long range in January and seeing absolutely NOTHING (zilch! nada! zero!) of potential interest. No LES, no clippers, no synoptic snowstorms, no nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 That's a lot of O's.... 1 hour ago, Powerball said: I gotta say, it's crazy looking into the mid/long range in January and seeing absolutely NOTHING (zilch! nada! zero!) of potential interest. No LES, no clippers, no synoptic snowstorms, no nothing! 22 of them I think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Quote To my untrained eye things look wetter but warmer too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 hours ago, Powerball said: I gotta say, it's crazy looking into the mid/long range in January and seeing absolutely NOTHING (zilch! nada! zero!) of potential interest. No LES, no clippers, no synoptic snowstorms, no nothing! The models change daily so who knows. But it's the risk you take when wishing for an active se ridge pattern in a roller coaster winter. We've already had a big snowstorm....id kill for a nw flow pattern laced with clippers right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 hours ago, Powerball said: I gotta say, it's crazy looking into the mid/long range in January and seeing absolutely NOTHING (zilch! nada! zero!) of potential interest. No LES, no clippers, no synoptic snowstorms, no nothing! Yeah we have a bleak 10 day period coming up here I think. Already signs of another wave train in the N Pac just after mid month which could cause another EPO drop and bring back cold by late January. This has been an odd winter so far...no pattern has really locked in for any period of time, and the ups and downs have been rather extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 59 minutes ago, OHweather said: Yeah we have a bleak 10 day period coming up here I think. Already signs of another wave train in the N Pac just after mid month which could cause another EPO drop and bring back cold by late January. This has been an odd winter so far...no pattern has really locked in for any period of time, and the ups and downs have been rather extreme. For us I'm not sure "odd" is the right description, us and our 2 inches of total winter snowfall. I could understand if this was Kansas City, but not DSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Shortest January AFD by LOT in history this AM. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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